Guest Pamela Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 12z NMM amazingly wet with 7 inches + of rain forecast for SW CT, southern Westchester, and northern Long Island... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 ARW also quite wet with a maximum of around 5 inches over north central Long Island: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 12z NMM amazingly wet with 7 inches + of rain forecast for SW CT, southern Westchester, and northern Long Island... seems like several of the hi-res models have been taking turns highlighting this area...taking a cluster with the pre-frontal trough and pulsing it up over this area, I think last nights hi-res NAM showed something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 seems like several of the hi-res models have been taking turns highlighting this area...taking a cluster with the pre-frontal trough and pulsing it up over this area, I think last nights hi-res NAM showed something similar. IIRC both models did a nice job with last weekends rains... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 New mesoscale discussion out for Western sections of the area. But only a 40 percent chance of a watch issuance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1708 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0149 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN NY...CENTRAL/ERN PA...NJ...MD...ERN WV...NRN VA AND NRN DE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 051849Z - 052015Z CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCES PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...TSTMS DEVELOPING IN CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH REMAINDER OF AFTN WITH A SVR WIND AND ISOLATED HAIL THREAT. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. DISCUSSION...TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN PA SWD INTO WRN VA IN DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE AND AIDED BY OROGRAPHIC FORCING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATED MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO LOCALLY 2500 J/KG. AREA IS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH ERN GREAT LAKES/WRN NEW ENGLAND...HOWEVER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL STORMS/CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. POOR LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT LARGE HAIL THREAT...BUT AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL REPORT IS POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A WW IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..BUNTING/THOMPSON.. 08/05/2012 ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 40767804 42127746 42507629 42607508 41987366 40627381 39407499 38727607 38217698 38017780 38267841 38687886 40767804 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Severe t-storm watch over Western NJ and Eastern PA until 9pm: http://www.spc.noaa....tch/ww0564.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 5, 2012 Author Share Posted August 5, 2012 I know there's stuff going on right now (including a watch over Western NJ)...but this is extremely intriguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Nice line dev. over central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 i disagree with okx not including at least essex/union in the watch. that line looks solid and instability/moisture isn't going anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 5, 2012 Author Share Posted August 5, 2012 i disagree with okx not including at least essex/union in the watch. that line looks solid and instability/moisture isn't going anywhere The storms are riding the periphery of decent 0-6km shear with values over 30 kts just back to the west over PA. But currently over our area, per the mesoanalysis, values are very unimpressive. In addition the guidance has some CIN building in by 22-00z. But EWR continues with a SW wind. I think it could've gone either way. But they're probably betting on the instability axis weakening by the time the storms get here. With meager ML Lapse rates it could be the right call by sunset. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 The storms are riding the periphery of decent 0-6km shear with values over 30 kts just back to the west over PA. But currently over our area, per the mesoanalysis, values are very unimpressive. In addition the guidance has some CIN building in by 22-00z. But EWR continues with a SW wind. I think it could've gone either way. But they're probably betting on the instability axis weakening by the time the storms get here. With meager ML Lapse rates it could be the right call by sunset. We'll see. unfortunately NAM bufkit is almost useless right now due to the model having too much early convection stabilizing us, but it hints at instability lasting til about midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 12z SPC-WRF has an impressive line of tstorms crossing our area from 7PM to 11PM from west to east. Matches the line in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 12z SPC-WRF has an impressive line of tstorms crossing our area from 7PM to 11PM from west to east. Matches the line in PA. It also shows 3"+ of rain for NYC and up to 4"+ for parts of Queens and Nassau County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 5, 2012 Author Share Posted August 5, 2012 unfortunately NAM bufkit is almost useless right now due to the model having too much early convection stabilizing us, but it hints at instability lasting til about midnight Yeah it had like .25" for a big area of NJ prior to 21z..didn't work out and it messes with the entire profile and environment afterwards. The SPC WRF is encouraging...and the SBCAPE forecast for +2hrs on the RAP has 3500 joules over much of Northern NJ. So long as the better shear keeps sliding east with the convection, we should be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Yeah it had like .25" for a big area of NJ prior to 21z..didn't work out and it messes with the entire profile and environment afterwards. The SPC WRF is encouraging...and the SBCAPE forecast for +2hrs on the RAP has 3500 joules over much of Northern NJ. So long as the better shear keeps sliding east with the convection, we should be ok. True...but this cape stays over NJ, doesnt move east and dissipates around 7 pm, with CIN increasing afterwards...the cape really drops off big time by 8-9 esp city on east...looks like the line will die out in eastern nj, so i think the SPC has nailed this...but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 line looks even more impressive. Should start pummelling western portions of northern NJ within the hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Can clearly see the line dying out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Dying out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Dying out? Yeah Mis worded that, you can see them getting weaker, btw got pretty windy here south Brooklyn, gusting least 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Cloud tops warming substantially as the convection is moving eastward, so weakening will ensue. We'll need to watch redevelopment ahead of the line if there is any severe to be sustained in the next couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Cloud tops warming substantially as the convection is moving eastward, so weakening will ensue. We'll need to watch redevelopment ahead of the line if there is any severe to be sustained in the next couple of hours. Why is this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 JFK just had a south wind gust at 36mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Nice push of winds into Sussex in the warned areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishmick9 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Severe warning for sussex...lot of deep thunder in distance....black to the west of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Cloud tops warming substantially as the convection is moving eastward, so weakening will ensue. We'll need to watch redevelopment ahead of the line if there is any severe to be sustained in the next couple of hours. Perhaps the southern portion, but I'm not seeing it in the northern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 JFK just had a south wind gust at 36mph. ambrose jet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 JFK just had a south wind gust at 36mph. Pretty windy here to bear the water in south bk, id say 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Some very heavy rain in back of the front line tstorms, looks like more storms popping up west of that in central pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Deja vu from the medium risk line we had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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