SnoSki14 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 If a technically non severe storm can cause significant damage, then why do people overreact when a storm that's actually severe causes a lot more damage. Many people then complain about how worse the storms were than forecast and how they had no warning, when clearly severe thunderstorm watches and warnings described the criteria for severe storms perfectly. If people overestimate a weaker storm, then they really blow up when a severe storm hits, even though if meets warned criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 There is a ton of moisture available for the storms from late tomorrow into the evening. The best combo of shear and instability will be found the further west that you go. The weak lapse rates may cut down on the wind potential a bit especially the further east that you go. Though flooding will be a concern just about anywhere that you go around the region that sees training of cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 There is a ton of moisture available for the storms from late tomorrow into the evening. The best combo of shear and instability will be found the further west that you go. The weak lapse rates may cut down on the wind potential a bit especially the further east that you go. Though flooding will be a concern just about anywhere that you go around the region that sees training of cells. That is a very skinny cape...value around 580...not impressive although I think the nightime storms will be driven by elevated instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 That is a very skinny cape...value around 580...not impressive although I think the nightime storms will be driven by elevated instability. It looks like the South Shore beaches will be very windy before the front comes through with gusts to 30 mph or higher, strong rip currents, and very choppy seas. The PWAT axis is really impressive for tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 It looks like the South Shore beaches will be very windy before the front comes through with gusts to 30 mph or higher, strong rip currents, and very choppy seas. The PWAT axis is really impressive for tomorrow night. Yea looks like even though areas east of the city miss out on the severe they will still get dumped with a ton of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 4, 2012 Author Share Posted August 4, 2012 Getting pummeled here. Small hail and unbelievable rain rates. Also had a strong wind gust as the storm came in but not sure on the exact severity of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 As is usually the case mt holly went with warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Getting pummeled here. Small hail and unbelievable rain rates. Also had a strong wind gust as the storm came in but not sure on the exact severity of it. Just had the best storm of the season so far here in Piscataway. Rain so heavy you could not see, and some extremely close lightning strikes. The lightning show was spectacular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Lol...im out of town...no wonder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyg Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Moderate to heavy rain here in New Providence. Some rumbles of thunder but few and far between. Looks like it weakened as it hit the hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Lol...im out of town...no wonder Lol I left New Brunswick like two hours ago to go back to Long Island for the remainder of the weekend...awesome timing! Haven't seen hail since fall 2010. I was in New Brunswick when Nassau County had their 1-3" hail episode last summer. I guess I can't complain considering what I saw when I went chasing last Thursday, but still...I want hail! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Getting pummeled here. Small hail and unbelievable rain rates. Also had a strong wind gust as the storm came in but not sure on the exact severity of it. You always seem to be in the small hail core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 4, 2012 Author Share Posted August 4, 2012 You always seem to be in the small hail core. Yeah...i'm not sure why that's the case in any decent storm here. We haven't had a good one in a while though...that was our first real good storm of the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Getting pummeled here. Small hail and unbelievable rain rates. Also had a strong wind gust as the storm came in but not sure on the exact severity of it. only getting outer portion of cloud top from cell here. It's moving ne into Essex County with good rainfall rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Lol I left New Brunswick like two hours ago to go back to Long Island for the remainder of the weekend...awesome timing! Haven't seen hail since fall 2010. I was in New Brunswick when Nassau County had their 1-3" hail episode last summer. I guess I can't complain considering what I saw when I went chasing last Thursday, but still...I want hail! Lol Lol....reports from home of thunder and good lightning, but no rain. With new brunswick being further sw im sure u did not miss much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Radar indicated strong winds (close to 60) between 406 and 445 PM EDT from South Plainfield to Plainfield to Watchung to Madison. Could have downed a few trees and wires. The SVR was certainly warranted. The storm clipped Western Union/Essex counties. I call that a fringer for an NWS office on the edge of a coverage area. Tough for Upton to warn for it, even if it did cause minor wind damage on their side of the line, probably a good idea not to issue a small polygon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 4, 2012 Author Share Posted August 4, 2012 Radar indicated strong winds (close to 60) between 406 and 445 PM EDT from South Plainfield to Plainfield to Watchung to Madison. Could have downed a few trees and wires. The SVR was certainly warranted. The storm clipped Western Union/Essex counties. I call that a fringer for an NWS office on the edge of a coverage area. Tough for Upton to warn for it, even if it did cause minor wind damage on their side of the line, probably a good idea not to issue a small polygon. There was definitely a near-severe gust as the storm came through..so I can back up what you saw on the radar scans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Lol I left New Brunswick like two hours ago to go back to Long Island for the remainder of the weekend...awesome timing! Haven't seen hail since fall 2010. I was in New Brunswick when Nassau County had their 1-3" hail episode last summer. I guess I can't complain considering what I saw when I went chasing last Thursday, but still...I want hail! Lol Surprisingly it looks like there was no rain recorded at the Rutgers weather station. I'm sure there must've been a very good lightning show at the very least though. I did see impressive cumulonimbus clouds to the south and east and heard a rumble of thunder, even from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyg Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Radar indicated strong winds (close to 60) between 406 and 445 PM EDT from South Plainfield to Plainfield to Watchung to Madison. Could have downed a few trees and wires. The SVR was certainly warranted. The storm clipped Western Union/Essex counties. I call that a fringer for an NWS office on the edge of a coverage area. Tough for Upton to warn for it, even if it did cause minor wind damage on their side of the line, probably a good idea not to issue a small polygon. I'm very close to that area outlined but I didn't see anything that could even be considered 'strong.' However I'll be heading over to Berkeley Heights in a bit which, as per radar scans, did look like was hit by some winds. I'll certainly be on the lookout for damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Lol....reports from home of thunder and good lightning, but no rain. With new brunswick being further sw im sure u did not miss much Yeah, Edison was a little too far east for this storm. We really got nailed here in Piscatway, about time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Getting pummeled here. Small hail and unbelievable rain rates. Also had a strong wind gust as the storm came in but not sure on the exact severity of it. earthlight strikes gold again! what a surpise haha. i want to know btw east of the NYC should get into the rain/storms about what time tommorow? thanks alot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Yeah you can see the track of the heaviest rain. Very little to the east and then it died once it hit I78 Yeah, Edison was a little too far east for this storm. We really got nailed here in Piscatway, about time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 15z SREF is pretty lackluster for storms in the NYC Metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT... NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN FAIRFIELD...NORTHERN NEW HAVEN AND SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD. IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...EASTERN BERGEN...EASTERN ESSEX... EASTERN PASSAIC...EASTERN UNION...HUDSON...WESTERN BERGEN... WESTERN ESSEX...WESTERN PASSAIC AND WESTERN UNION. IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...BRONX...KINGS (BROOKLYN)...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)...NORTHERN NASSAU...NORTHERN QUEENS...NORTHERN WESTCHESTER...ORANGE...PUTNAM...RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)... ROCKLAND...SOUTHERN NASSAU...SOUTHERN QUEENS AND SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER. * FROM 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING * THIS AFTERNOON...WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRESENT A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN NEAR THE REGION LATE TODAY AND THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS FRONT INTERACTS WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS...WITH RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. THESE TYPE OF RAINFALL RATES RESULT IN URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE...AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL THAT INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS COULD TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS...RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING AS THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Upton bearish on the severe threat east of the hudson. ANY STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD START WEAKENING IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS IT TRACKS EAST TOWARDS THE HUDSON RIVER/NYC WITH MARITIME AIRMASS IN PLACE. Looks like we still get the heavy rain though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Yea psv88 looks mainly east if the city is gonna be rainfall with some garden variety storms if you will mixed in. I think we'll get some good rains this evening and tonight though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Yeah, Edison was a little too far east for this storm. We really got nailed here in Piscatway, about time. Where in Piscataway are you? I'm in piscataway and only got .08" of rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 RAP has some rain for the area between 10 and 12 tonight, then clearing out...thats it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 NAM has heavy rain starting around 2 pm for the city and out of here by 6 or 7 tonight, and little else after that...clearly off as there is no way the area is getting doused in the next 20 minutes...so we have no idea whats going to happen later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishmick9 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Just had a storm roll thru here in Sussex Co...gust to 30 with decent ctg lightning...nothing special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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