Stormlover74 Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Yeah the Euro and NAM seem to more similar than the GFS which really has nothing until tomorrow. But that's what the nam was showing yesterday so hopefully the new run will shift back to the overnight tonight idea. edit: it has pushed up the timing now with the bulk of it falling between midnight and noon but lingering over eastern areas through the day Euro has a similar start time as the NAM. 2-3 hours later on the euro; around 1am tonight and like you said, lasting until noonish from NYC west and longer into the afternoon for LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishmick9 Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Storms starting to fire in E PA...parameters are not horrible but not great...I have probably the best shot here in NW jersey. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 nam bufkit shows the best parameters in the nyc metro area after 9 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 432 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... * UNTIL 515 PM EDT... * AT 428 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES WEST OF OTISVILLE...OR NEAR PORT JERVIS...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MIDDLETOWN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Radar showing signs of life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 What is the timeframe for the rain? Haven't checked in a while. Have a BBQ tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 What is the timeframe for the rain? Haven't checked in a while. Have a BBQ tomorrow Looks like 12am until noonish tomorrow. Later for Long Island. This is for overnight stuff. Looks like some convection trying to pop for earlier tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Looks like 12am until noonish tomorrow. Later for Long Island. This is for overnight stuff. Looks like some convection trying to pop for earlier tonight. Thanks. Looks like things might get interesting later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishmick9 Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Line just come thru here now in NW jersey...pretty decent rains and some ctg lightning close to house...winds to 25. Overall good storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 I'm sitting here off 84 near the Taconic. Some storms approaching from the W and SW, but skies are BKN. Temp is 81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishmick9 Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Storms keep backbuilding here...30 mim of mod to heavy rain and lightning and still going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Storms keep backbuilding here...30 mim of mod to heavy rain and lightning and still going They're not really backbuilding. They're training. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishmick9 Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 My bad..did not look at radar to see the training. Hope you guys do well with this batch down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Cell over upper east side of Manhattan heading into Queens. Another cell looks like it's developing over lower Manhattan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 724 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2012 NYZ071>073-176-177-180015- BRONX-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-NORTHERN NASSAU-NORTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- 724 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2012 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT BRONX...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)... NORTHERN NASSAU...QUEENS AND SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER COUNTIES... AT 719 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 1 INCH AN HOUR...IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. THIS COULD CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Papa Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Some moderate rain in Ridgewood about 20 minutes ago. Lasted for about 5 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 851 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2012 NYZ075-176>179-180130- KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN NASSAU-NORTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS- 851 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2012 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT KINGS (BROOKLYN)...NORTHERN NASSAU AND QUEENS COUNTIES... AT 850 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR OZONE PARK...OR NEAR CROWN HEIGHTS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 1.5 INCHES AN HOUR...IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. THIS COULD CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS... AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Papa Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Heavy rain in Ridgewood. Some Lightning flashes, not much wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Looks like a decent batch of rain headed my way...not sure if there's any lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Pretty decent light show here....no idea if its raining hard or not though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Getting heavy rain now....few rumbles of thunder too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 The lightning and rain woke me up in the middle of the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 I just have a funny feeling that tomorrow morning's See Text risk event will overperform for us, because no one is discussing it. Favorable shear but marginal instability, like tomorrow's setup, seem to give us the worst storms and supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I just have a funny feeling that tomorrow morning's See Text risk event will overperform for us, because no one is discussing it. Favorable shear but marginal instability, like tomorrow's setup, seem to give us the worst storms and supercells. x2. we seem to do better with morning setups over afternoon/evening storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Severe enthusiasts, check out the 00z Euro at 72 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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