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August 2012 Severe Thunderstorm/Convection Discussion


earthlight

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Radar showing developing storms over Garden City area and expanding toward Hicksville

I have increasing lightning now with four strikes in the last few minutes here in Western Nassau.

The winds have picked up to around 10 to 20 mph now and it very dark to my North.

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NAM continues its run of oddities of the last few months...what used to seem to be such a great convective model has been really bad lately, it has virtually no activity firing at all today or this evening on its 12Z run, much as it did a week or so ago with the squall line that came though. Could be right I guess given we do have a quite a bit of high level cloudiness around but the mid-upper level setup seems a bit too strong for nothing to fire this afternoon.

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NAM continues its run of oddities of the last few months...what used to seem to be such a great convective model has been really bad lately, it has virtually no activity firing at all today or this evening on its 12Z run, much as it did a week or so ago with the squall line that came though. Could be right I guess given we do have a quite a bit of high level cloudiness around but the mid-upper level setup seems a bit too strong for nothing to fire this afternoon.

Last nite 0z and 18z, it had ,pretty solid stuff firing all over... Not sure what's up with this morning. Time to go back to good ole' now casting.

Anyone have the newest spc wrf?

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

1125 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

NASSAU COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

WESTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 1215 PM EDT...

* AT 1124 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR

WESTBURY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

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My wife was in the heart of the Garden City Band.. She can confirm hail did fall.. I was in westbury and was clipped.. For about 3-4 minutes we experienced what I believe was 60+mph winds and some hail..

It's now winding down.. Crazy storm..

I can also say that lastnight from 12:30-1:30AM - in western Suffolk- very intense thunder and lightning.. I don't believe we saw hail.. But pretty damn scary..

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