IsentropicLift Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 The large area of 1-2" rainfall rates per hour look to advect directly into the greater NYC area in about 2-3 hours. The line also looks about as healthy as it has http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=DIX&product=N1P&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 14, 2012 Author Share Posted August 14, 2012 I think the best area for severe weather today will end up south and west of NYC. These morning storms are nothing exciting, I wouldn't mind if they just crapped out so we could have a better shot at destabilizing later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 14, 2012 Author Share Posted August 14, 2012 And of course, fittingly, a warning is just issued for parts of SW NJ near Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 The large area of 1-2" rainfall rates per hour look to advect directly into the greater NYC area in about 2-3 hours. The line also looks about as healthy as it has http://radar.weather...101111&loop=yes PWs and CAPE decrease as you go further NE. The line may make into Western NJ. But I think it weakens rapidly after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishmick9 Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Wonder how this batch of showers and clouds will effect severe chances later? Looks like heavier line now in PA will slide just south of area with lighter showers for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 14, 2012 Author Share Posted August 14, 2012 PWs and CAPE decrease as you go further NE. The line may make into Western NJ. But I think it weakens rapidly after that. Yeah that's often the issue with using an OKX sounding to get an idea of the environment throughout the area...things can be really different over Western NJ . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Severe parameters essentially crap out from Mercer-Monmouth northward, so it'll be interesting to see how this cluster interacts in another hour (probably weakening). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 12z NAM weakens the line to almost nothing as it heads east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 that is some heavy rain north-west and south of Philly crawling east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 12z NAM weakens the line to almost nothing as it heads east. still looks like some good rains from at least NYC west.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 still looks like some good rains from at least NYC west.... Very little for NYC. Doesn't mean the NAM is right. We'll see in the next couple hours if the line breaks up: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 The line is looking really good on radar. Lets hope it stays together as it heads east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 The line is looking really good on radar. Lets hope it stays together as it heads east. The t-storms are weakening. On radar there may some low/mid-level low over SE PA, supporting the heavy batch of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Well this heavy rain will screw things up and keep us stable for today. How about tomorrow? Do we see a better threat stronger storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Its been pouring at work here in Bedminster. No thunder though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 As expected, pooferama. Nothing but scattered heavier showers now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 More like just some stratoform rain. I suppose when this batch moves through we can clear out this afternoon. As expected, pooferama. Nothing but scattered heavier showers now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 No rain at all here..still working Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Upton says storms likely for tonight and tomorrow im assuming were just talking about garden verity storms cause its over night.... Would I be right?? or do the storms later tonight and tomorrow look goodd....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Score one for the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 I think the best area for severe weather today will end up south and west of NYC. These morning storms are nothing exciting, I wouldn't mind if they just crapped out so we could have a better shot at destabilizing later. We don't seem to be getting the thunderstorms at all this summer. Not that I mind a nice, hot, dry summer every now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 We don't seem to be getting the thunderstorms at all this summer. Not that I mind a nice, hot, dry summer every now and then. Westchester has missed like all the thunderstorms this summer. Disappointing...New Jersey, Manhattan, and LI have done much better in that department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 I've gotten more this summer than probably the last 3 combined Westchester has missed like all the thunderstorms this summer. Disappointing...New Jersey, Manhattan, and LI have done much better in that department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Pouring here...no lightning, radar just blew up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
listarz Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 lots of ctc lightning, some thunder but no rain yet. Radar just blew up out here. looks like rain shield is moving in from Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 rumbles of thunder but no lightning and rain here yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 heavy rain now, frequent lightning and thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
listarz Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Wow, that was pretty intense! CTG frequent lightning, lots of thunder, and HEAVY rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 30mins of awesome light show! looking south: looking east: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Quite unstable at coastal sections now with already 1500+ j/kg of SBCAPE and 2000 j/kg of MLCAPE. This combined with some helicity is contributing to elevating supercell indices at the coast. Given that there is some CIN in place, coastal sections and perhaps some nearby inland locations will most likely have lots of sunshine to boost buoyancy further until that strong shortwave and some shear provides enough ascent to unload all of that instability with 70+ *F dewpoints for isolated supercells with perhaps an isolated tornado this afternoon. We were upgraded to a slight risk this morning for today with the potential for higher probabilities in later outlooks. How are this morning's models honing in on this threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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