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August 2012 Severe Thunderstorm/Convection Discussion


earthlight

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Most of the storms so far look to be to our North thought the sun would help we were partly sunny for a while now were mostly sunny but I don't see anything interesting on radar yet hopefully later......

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if those storms off the jersy coast make it up here they will most likely hit eastern long island looks like from Nassau county west will prob not get any big storms maybe a shower but thats about it atleast thats what it lools like to me!!

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Most of the models keep the best stuff offshore and clipping New England with some scattered convection in our area....the SPC WRF being most robust in that regard.

Judging by where the convection is developing sw of the delmarva and the almost due northward movement, i think they are likely too far east

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Based upon most recent rr, not sure I agree with Upton's assessment.

LOW PRES CONTINUES TO HOVE OVER LAKE HURON. AHEAD OF THAT LOW...A

COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NY/PA. A TROUGH

EXTENDS AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...WITH LOW PRES FORMING AT THE BASE OF

THE TROUGH OVER THE DELMARVA AREA. THAT LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST

INTO CENTRAL NJ LATE TONIGHT. H5 TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK

EAST...AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THAT TROUGH WILL

APPROACH THIS EVENING...GIVING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE

DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS....

THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN ZONE WILL OCCUR THIS

EVENING. WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...THE INSTABILITY LEVELS

WILL GO DOWN. OVER EASTERN ZONES...AS LOW PRES TRACKS NORTH INTO

CENTRAL AND EASTERN NJ...BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL

DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT AND TRACK TOWARDS EASTERN LONG ISLAND. THE

BULK COULD REMAIN OFFSHORE...AND MOST OF THE AREA COULD END UP

BEING DRY. BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE

AREA. SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO EASTERN ZONES.

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Slight risk for a lot of the area tomorrow. Has some similarities to Friday except the upper level low is open and not closed. Lapse rates will probably be a bit better, fortunately, but I'm not sure we'll get an LLJ or anything to enhance low level shear in this setup. SPC does mention tornadoes, though. The low level veering is still pretty apparent, regardless.

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Slight risk for a lot of the area tomorrow. Has some similarities to Friday except the upper level low is open and not closed. Lapse rates will probably be a bit better, fortunately, but I'm not sure we'll get an LLJ or anything to enhance low level shear in this setup. SPC does mention tornadoes, though. The low level veering is still pretty apparent, regardless.

Severe threat for NYC and eastern areas, looks more like on with warm front on Wednesday morning and early afternoon hours.

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