rcad1 Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 Most of the storms so far look to be to our North thought the sun would help we were partly sunny for a while now were mostly sunny but I don't see anything interesting on radar yet hopefully later...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 Jersey shore areas look to be in for some rain shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 12z SPC WRF still has some t-storms in parts of the area this evening.: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 Getting dark here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 Getting dark here I think you are seeing cloud tops being blown over from storms over NJ shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 I think you are seeing cloud tops being blown over from storms over NJ shore. Looks like it is going to rain. Also getting cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 Looks like it is going to rain. Also getting cooler. New cell has popped up between Red Bank and Long Branch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 Getting a few sprinkles now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 Nada. Just a few low clouds above the northern end of the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 if those storms off the jersy coast make it up here they will most likely hit eastern long island looks like from Nassau county west will prob not get any big storms maybe a shower but thats about it atleast thats what it lools like to me!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 11, 2012 Author Share Posted August 11, 2012 Storms finally going up near Philly now and just north of there. Trying to move northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 looks like some of those shrs near PHL might be able to make it into our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 South of there seems to be more organized convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 South of there seems to be more organized convection over Chesapeake Bay and central Delmarva, with a northward motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 almost looks lke we may get another sort of meso low come up the coast tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 over Chesapeake Bay and central Delmarva, with a northward motion. Yeah I only see one warned cell, but some very heavy rain there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 11, 2012 Author Share Posted August 11, 2012 almost looks lke we may get another sort of meso low come up the coast tonight. Most of the models keep the best stuff offshore and clipping New England with some scattered convection in our area....the SPC WRF being most robust in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 Most of the models keep the best stuff offshore and clipping New England with some scattered convection in our area....the SPC WRF being most robust in that regard. Judging by where the convection is developing sw of the delmarva and the almost due northward movement, i think they are likely too far east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 Based upon most recent rr, not sure I agree with Upton's assessment. LOW PRES CONTINUES TO HOVE OVER LAKE HURON. AHEAD OF THAT LOW...A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NY/PA. A TROUGH EXTENDS AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...WITH LOW PRES FORMING AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE DELMARVA AREA. THAT LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NJ LATE TONIGHT. H5 TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST...AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THAT TROUGH WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING...GIVING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS.... THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN ZONE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...THE INSTABILITY LEVELS WILL GO DOWN. OVER EASTERN ZONES...AS LOW PRES TRACKS NORTH INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NJ...BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT AND TRACK TOWARDS EASTERN LONG ISLAND. THE BULK COULD REMAIN OFFSHORE...AND MOST OF THE AREA COULD END UP BEING DRY. BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE AREA. SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO EASTERN ZONES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 The t-storms of the Jersey coast, looks like it's heading for Eastern LI. Other t-storms coming up through West-Central NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 Delmarva stuff is going to be close for here in cnj it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 I'm thinking it's going to weaken but we'll see Delmarva stuff is going to be close for here in cnj it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 I'm thinking it's going to weaken but we'll see I think your right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Although now I'm seeing lightning from that storm about 20 miles to my southwest I think your right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Looks like we missed out here, even though JFK and other places nearby had torrential rains. Sunny, dripping humidity all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Storms firing south of Long Island...could be a wet early morning for some...the beat goes on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Slight risk for a lot of the area tomorrow. Has some similarities to Friday except the upper level low is open and not closed. Lapse rates will probably be a bit better, fortunately, but I'm not sure we'll get an LLJ or anything to enhance low level shear in this setup. SPC does mention tornadoes, though. The low level veering is still pretty apparent, regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Slight risk for a lot of the area tomorrow. Has some similarities to Friday except the upper level low is open and not closed. Lapse rates will probably be a bit better, fortunately, but I'm not sure we'll get an LLJ or anything to enhance low level shear in this setup. SPC does mention tornadoes, though. The low level veering is still pretty apparent, regardless. Severe threat for NYC and eastern areas, looks more like on with warm front on Wednesday morning and early afternoon hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Tuesday afternoon looks to target areas a bit to the west, across PA, but could see a few isolated storms, especially across western NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 The 12z OKX sounding is very stable. 0-1km shear is also weak. I expect those t-storms in PA/MD now to fall apart before reaching the NYC area: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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