Dsnowx53 Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 The GFS is showing some pretty intriguing soundings for late tomorrow morning and tomorrow afternoon. I wish it was the NAM showing them, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 I wish it was the NAM that was showing this, and not the GFS. The GFS with its lower resolution will have a broader area of stronger mid-level winds than what will actually result, but that being said, the GFS looks very good. There is also very good veering above 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Upton also mentions the possibility of a tornado today in there morn disco!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 SPC meso, shows we are already very unstable especially near the coast, with dewpoints in mid 70s. And there is 30kts> of bulk effective shear from NYC south. I expect the line over PA, MD,VA to continue to grow this morning and move our area later this morning. After that not sure if how much we'll be able to destabilize later, with lingering cloudclover and the flow more SE. Updated parameters for 11z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 it seems as though warm fronts pose the most danger to the nyc/LI area.. I will always remember July 2007 and early august 2007- two events that i believe were b/c of warm fronts that produced insane rainfall in and around the nyc/LI areas.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Can't wait to see the 12z sounding. Oofah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 If our meager lapse rates improve and get better helicity values, I would not be shocked to see a 5% tornado prob. area and 30% wind area be introduced to us later by the SPC. Craven and supercell values are also very decent for us now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 The HRRR looks like it has the best handle on the timing as it matches up pretty well with the current radar. It brings through the strongest storms later this morning into the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 After the storms later this morning, does anyone know where tonight's forecast of widespread rain/storms is coming from? Previous model runs showed widespread storms tonight and tomorrow, and Upton's latest discussion mentions "good coverage" of showers tonight, although the models trended drier for tonight and tomorrow, not showing much after this round of storms. There's plenty of moisture, but there isn't nearly as much modeled QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 10, 2012 Author Share Posted August 10, 2012 The entire threat seems a little disjointed to me, the wind/tornado threat especially. I don't expect SPC to highlight any higher probability areas until a juxtaposition of shear and good instability becomes more apparent. I think we'll all get heavy rain, lightning/thunder and they'll probably issue a low-probability severe thunderstorm watch to cover the isolated potential at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 After the storms later this morning, does anyone know where tonight's forecast of widespread rain/storms is coming from? Previous model runs showed widespread storms tonight and tomorrow, and Upton's latest discussion mentions "good coverage" of showers tonight, although the models trended drier for tonight and tomorrow, not showing much after this round of storms. There's plenty of moisture, but there isn't nearly as much modeled QPF. So after these storms is it gonna stop for a while or rain on & off for the rest of the day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 10, 2012 Author Share Posted August 10, 2012 The RAP has a nice instability axis developing over NJ and traversing northeastward towards Long Island and CT with convection moving southwest to northeast. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/RUCNE_9z/f09.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 New MD for the area, has 40% of chance of watch issued for the line: http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/md/md1731.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Last night's GFS seems to be showing everything quite well. Game on, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Areas near Balt. and DC are already seeing storms with embedded mesocyclones, >30k ft. cloud tops and some hail cores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Sorry for the OT but is there an app for the iPhone that will pick up lightning strikes, wind & hail in a storm with the radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 The 12z OKX sounding good instability and shear . Hodographs look decent as well for tornadoes: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN KENT COUNTY IN CENTRAL DELAWARE... WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY IN CENTRAL DELAWARE... CAROLINE COUNTY IN EASTERN MARYLAND... TALBOT COUNTY IN EASTERN MARYLAND... * UNTIL 1000 AM EDT * AT 853 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM TANYARD TO 20 MILES SOUTH OF TRAPPE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 34 MILES WEST OF GEORGETOWN TO 44 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GEORGETOWN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. * SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR... WINDYHILL AND TANYARD AROUND 900 AM EDT... MATTHEWS AND CHOPTANK AROUND 905 AM EDT... GRIFFIN...HARMONY AND PRESTON AROUND 910 AM EDT... RIDGELY AND DENTON AROUND 915 AM EDT... GREENSBORO AROUND 925 AM EDT... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS AND CAUSE LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Our best stuff always happens when the threats are downplayed Agreed. I am kind of surprised why the new Day 1 outlook is unchanged also. And now sun is breaking out with towering CU with no CIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Jeez. LI is -7*C in NYC with -8*C surging up into southern NJ. Storms over Delmarva are intense with >40k ft. cloud tops and 50 VIL values showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 10, 2012 Author Share Posted August 10, 2012 Some real rapid organization near Philly now..it'll be interesting to see how this whole thing evolves, and if it just gets unfolded with heavy rain or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 The action over the delmarva is of most interest to me. That could/should ride the instability up and off the coast and probably rakes part of the area this afternoon. Until then, look for discrete cells ahead of that line to pulse up quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 There's also activity popping up over south Jersey and just off the coast that looks to be moving north. The line west of the delaware looks like it is still moving more to the north than to the east The action over the delmarva is of most interest to me. That could/should ride the instability up and off the coast and probably rakes part of the area this afternoon. Until then, look for discrete cells ahead of that line to pulse up quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 I'm liking that stuff near the Delmarva. Not sure what to think of the convection near AC, though. And it's a good sign that the storms near Philly are organizing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 There's also activity popping up over south Jersey and just off the coast that looks to be moving north. The line west of the delaware looks like it is still moving more to the north than to the east Yup...that stuff looks like it will nail western long island around noon or so...its been pretty dry around Western LI/Queens lately as we have missed out on most of the action since late june for the most part, either going east, west, north or south. Good luck today boys, hope you all see some action! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 The SREF's really show the convection blooming over our area later this morning into the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 I don't like the crapvection near AC for New Jersey...there is not enough time for that to organize and become discrete supercells. CT, on the other hand, might benefit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 The t-storms to south are ahead of triple-point low and shortwave coming up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 I don't like the crapvection near AC for New Jersey...there is not enough time for that to organize and become discrete supercells. CT, on the other hand, might benefit. yeah, i wish the AC stuff was not there at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 yeah, i wish the AC stuff was not there at all. It looks like it will all merge into a big rainer with embeded severe with that warned cell in Delaware now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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