earthlight Posted August 9, 2012 Author Share Posted August 9, 2012 The shear is pretty unfavorable for any organized advection of storms into our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Models all have today's storms forming in PA and then remaining well west of our area. Let's hope they are wrong. Looks like more of an inland threat today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 There is a boundary over Eastern NJ for more t-storms to form over later: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 9, 2012 Author Share Posted August 9, 2012 A little OT, but the amount of warnings on thunderstorms from Mt Holly is becoming peculiar. Most of these storms don't look severe. I might be wrong, but it seems to me that the importance of the warning itself is taken away when so many non-severe storms are warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 A little OT, but the amount of warnings on thunderstorms from Mt Holly is becoming peculiar. Most of these storms don't look severe. I might be wrong, but it seems to me that the importance of the warning itself is taken away when so many non-severe storms are warned. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE ACROSS THE FLEMINGTON AREA. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS! Seems severe enough to me. Would you prefer they issue a warning 15 minutes AFTER the worst severe weather has passed, like OKX did last time, (and ONLY issued because EWR gusted to 60 MPH)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 A little OT, but the amount of warnings on thunderstorms from Mt Holly is becoming peculiar. Most of these storms don't look severe. I might be wrong, but it seems to me that the importance of the warning itself is taken away when so many non-severe storms are warned. LWX warns every shower that has an orange pixel for 1 scan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 9, 2012 Author Share Posted August 9, 2012 THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE ACROSS THE FLEMINGTON AREA. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS! Seems severe enough to me. Would you prefer they issue a warning 15 minutes AFTER the worst severe weather has passed, like OKX did last time, (and ONLY issued because EWR gusted to 60 MPH)? I'm not referencing any specific storm that's going on right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 9, 2012 Author Share Posted August 9, 2012 LWX warns every shower that has an orange pixel for 1 scan. Yeah, that's what im talking about. I've seen 40 dbz sea breeze thunderstorms get warned over three counties. I'm not calling anybody out, it just is peculiar to me. I'm sure they have their reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 I'm not referencing any specific storm that's going on right now. The point is if you're working in the NWS, with the mission "to save lives and property", in a borderline situation, you should just go and issue the warning. I'd rather have the storm weaken and be warned, than have it pulse up and damage property with no warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 LWX warns every shower that has an orange pixel for 1 scan. That's a little ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 9, 2012 Author Share Posted August 9, 2012 The point is if you're working in the NWS, with the mission "to save lives and property", in a borderline situation, you should just go and issue the warning. And then people wonder why the general public doesn't take the warnings seriously sometimes. Because the majority of the time, if you follow the gameplan you advertised, warnings are issued for garden variety storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Yeah, that's what im talking about. I've seen 40 dbz sea breeze thunderstorms get warned over three counties. I'm not calling anybody out, it ju st is peculiar to me. I'm sure they have their reasons. John, my father lives in Flemington and that storm was NOT severe (technically speaking) the lightning was bad and very heavy rain but no damage in the immediate vicinity of him. These severe warnings do get overhyped on a daily basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 And then people wonder why the general public doesn't take the warnings seriously sometimes. Because the majority of the time, if you follow the gameplan you advertised, warnings are issued for garden variety storms. Another thing to take into account is if you issue a warning for an area, and a very small portion of that area verifies, the warning is verified and was needed. Most of the time, even in verified warnings, everyone doesn't see severe weather. The general public is always going to have this perception. What would your game plan be? Wait until the storm is over, or somebody already calls in damage? It's easy to verify 100% then, but when NWS wants increased lead time, you're not doing your job, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 John, my father lives in Flemington and that storm was NOT severe (technically speaking) the lightning was bad and very heavy rain but no damage in the immediate vicinity of him. These severe warnings do get overhyped on a daily basis. Someone reported wind damage. Last week, the storm that produced 60 MPH winds at EWR (only 2 miles from here), and apprently knocked over a light pole on 1 & 9, only produced 35-40 MPH winds here- nice storm, but nothing that special. Sometimes, severe elements of storms can be very localized, especially in a small cell. NWS can't issue a warning for a 1X1 area. They have to issue a warning when damage is reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 The point is if you're working in the NWS, with the mission "to save lives and property", in a borderline situation, you should just go and issue the warning. I'd rather have the storm weaken and be warned, than have it pulse up and damage property with no warning. I get the impression they are loose with warnings of all types to pad their lead time rates. There is no incentive not to warn on marginal or sub-severe activity that *might* become severe. The false alarm rate is a big problem that needs to be further addressed. There are lots of people who don't take severe warnings to mean anything because it's so common to get one with nothing major happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 I get the impression they are loose with warnings of all types to pad their lead time rates. There is no incentive not to warn on marginal or sub-severe activity that *might* become severe. The false alarm rate is a big problem that needs to be further addressed. There are lots of people who don't take severe warnings to mean anything because it's so common to get one with nothing major happening. The only times I really see them overwarn is when a storm is pulsing up, or when there was damage reported somewhere, like the "derecho" line. Most of the warnings out of the referenced NWS office have been verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishmick9 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Sussex Co warned again currently...must be the 10th warning we have had this year so agreed with the over warning. No major damages from most of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Someone reported wind damage. Last week, the storm that produced 60 MPH winds at EWR (only 2 miles from here), and apprently knocked over a light pole on 1 & 9, only produced 35-40 MPH winds here- nice storm, but nothing that special. Sometimes, severe elements of storms can be very localized, especially in a small cell. NWS can't issue a warning for a 1X1 area. They have to issue a warning when damage is reported. Your right, it must of been a very localized area nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 The only times I really see them overwarn is when a storm is pulsing up, or when there was damage reported somewhere, like the "derecho" line. Most of the warnings out of the referenced NWS office have been verified. I meant "they" as NWS as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Sussex Co warned again currently...must be the 10th warning we have had this year so agreed with the over warning. No major damages from most of them. Sussex is a large county. If you issue a warning for Sussex County, and there's a wind damage report somewher in the county, it verifies. And it doesn't really have to be "major" damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 LWX warns every shower that has an orange pixel for 1 scan. The bigger problem for LWX is the amount of TOR's the last few years. 31 in 2010, 96 in 2011, 28 in 2012 for a total of 155 in 2 and a half years. Only one tornado during that span reached greater than EF-1 strength. The public in the highly-populated Balt-Wash corridor might be getting confused as to what a Tornado Warning actually means anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Your right, it must of been a very localized area nearby. Flemington is a fairly large geographic area, so the storm could have effected the other side of town, or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 A little OT, but the amount of warnings on thunderstorms from Mt Holly is becoming peculiar. Most of these storms don't look severe. I might be wrong, but it seems to me that the importance of the warning itself is taken away when so many non-severe storms are warned. Mt. Holly has had a great year with verifying SVR's, but today does look to be a little bit much. Pulse storms are always difficult, and with a younger warning forecaster on call for the northern half of the CWA today, sometimes days like this happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Mt. Holly has had a great year with verifying SVR's, but today does look to be a little bit much. Pulse storms are always difficult, and with a younger warning forecaster on call for the northern half of the CWA today, sometimes days like this happen. He verified it, damage was reported in Flemington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Mt. Holly has had a great year with verifying SVR's, but today does look to be a little bit much. Pulse storms are always difficult, and with a younger warning forecaster on call for the northern half of the CWA today, sometimes days like this happen. And the guy who just issued the warning for Sussex is not the "young guy". He's rainshadow... SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 406 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012 NJC037-092045- /O.CON.KPHI.SV.W.0184.000000T0000Z-120809T2045Z/ SUSSEX NJ- 406 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT FOR SUSSEX COUNTY... AT 402 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SUSSEX...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF NEWTON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... SUSSEX...7 MILES NORTH OF FRANKLIN AND 9 MILES NORTH OF OGDENSBURG BY 415 PM EDT... HAMBURG BY 420 PM EDT... VERNON VALLEY BY 430 PM EDT... THERE IS A SECOND STRENGTHENING THUNDERSTORM IN MONROE COUNTY THAT WILL BE ENTERING SUSSEX COUNTY AND MIGHT ALSO BECOME SEVERE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER... PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS. PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY. && LAT...LON 4124 7444 4101 7463 4107 7494 4109 7497 4109 7499 4110 7500 4117 7489 4124 7487 4129 7484 4135 7476 4136 7471 4136 7469 TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 274DEG 21KT 4121 7467 $$ TFG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 9, 2012 Author Share Posted August 9, 2012 Big storms going up now along the boundary that weathergun mentioned earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Big storms going up now along the boundary that weathergun mentioned earlier. I see the clouds over staten island, storm just popped up west of there. Btw do you think tomorrow is a full washout? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Here at the port in Elizabeth vivid lightning just to my south as a storm exploded out of no where. Vivid lightning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 And the guy who just issued the warning for Sussex is not the "young guy". He's rainshadow... The intial SVR's were issued by the younger forecaster, which is why a few may have been a little bit much, however the southern half of the CWA was covered by the veteran, who also assisted with the SVS/SPS's in the other half. "Rainshadow" might be the best warning forecaster at any of the 122 offices. Always one to have for a major severe event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Under a severe t storm warning in c no, let's see how these storms do, lots of thunder and lightning at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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