Buckeye05 Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 CIPS Warm Season for the 12z NAM at 60 hrs is popping 6/17/10 as an analog... Geez. Skeptical of anything that prolific but still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 NAM also has most of Minnesota capped on Friday, so I'm still rather cautious to approach this, although MPX's wording certainly raised an eyebrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 700mb rule does not apply in the Northern Plains due to higher ground elevation according to John Daviess. I'm not really sure how to judge capping in that case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 700mb rule does not apply in the Northern Plains due to higher ground elevation according to John Daviess. I'm not really sure how to judge capping in that case. That's a good point, forgot about that. The H7 temps aren't overly inhibiting in this case anyway, FGF's CWA looks good per the 00z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Do you see much of a tornado threat Andy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Do you see much of a tornado threat Andy? Given the backed LL wind fields, if we can get discrete supercells ahead of the front (40-50 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear), I think there should be a threat given progged LCL heights. That is an "if" however, and I have concerns whether storms can initiate in time to take advantage of more favorable parameters. Dewpoint mixing could also be an issue. Would still like to see an increase in the strength of the LLJ (like the 12z NAM showed), with stronger height falls owing to a bit of a faster eastward progression of the upper level trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MnWeatherman Posted August 2, 2012 Author Share Posted August 2, 2012 How do you post your own pics to this forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Seems to me that this thing really slowed down, and the threat is more into the Dakotas now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 South Dakota and SW Minnesota look like good spots tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Tomorrow has the threat of some severe storms, and isolated tornadoes, then on Saturday, a lower threat, and then out east in the Ohio Valley and Northeast, a significant outbreak with tornadoes appears possible on sunday, Sunday appears to be the biggest day from this system coming out of Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Tomorrow has the threat of some severe storms, and isolated tornadoes, then on Saturday, a lower threat, and then out east in the Ohio Valley and Northeast, a significant outbreak with tornadoes appears possible on sunday, Sunday appears to be the biggest day from this system coming out of Canada Jumping the gun a bit I think. FWIW, the 18z NAM looks to have discrete convection based on its precip outputs tomorrow later afternoon/evening in the eastern Dakotas and western MN. Based on progged LL helicity/instability, these could have tornadic potential. It also appears to be a lot more spotty with CINH compared to some earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MnWeatherman Posted August 2, 2012 Author Share Posted August 2, 2012 I'm worried about the morning convection not moving out fast enough in the dakotas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 I'm worried about the morning convection not moving out fast enough in the dakotas. Definitely a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 storm in nebraska/ne co looks pretty nice.. had a funnel cloud report and rotation has tightened since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 tornado reported.. apparently was still on ground last warning update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 * AT 636 PM MDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR GOLDENEYE STATE WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA...OR 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BIG SPRINGS. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Man this rogue supercell is an interesting surprise. Sounds like either it's produced a long track or family of tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Man this rogue supercell is an interesting surprise. Sounds like either it's produced a long track or family of tornadoes. high plains magic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Couplet still going strong on this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Town of Imperial needs to be on the lookout. Slow mover though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Town of Imperial needs to be on the lookout. Slow mover though. prob go west of there if it holds together that long given current movement. this thing's in the middle of nowhere mostly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 If we can get a few of these fired across the risk area tomorrow (E SD/SE ND/W MN), I could see things getting rather interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MnWeatherman Posted August 3, 2012 Author Share Posted August 3, 2012 If we can get a few of these fired across the risk area tomorrow (E SD/SE ND/W MN), I could see things getting rather interesting... Hoping so, I'll be targeting north-east SD tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 RAP Hodograph near ABR at 18z tomorrow afternoon, it's juxtaposed with 3000+ J/kg of CAPE as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MnWeatherman Posted August 3, 2012 Author Share Posted August 3, 2012 RAP Hodograph near ABR at 18z tomorrow afternoon, it's juxtaposed with 3000+ J/kg of CAPE as well... Impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Day 1. ...UPPER MIDWEST TO NEB... SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON...AS STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT...SFC LOW...INVERTED TROUGH AND RELATED CONVERGENCE MAXIMA IMPINGE UPON FAVORABLY MOIST AND DIABATICALLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER. DAMAGING HAIL...STG-SVR GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE. ASSORTED MEASURES OF VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE STRENGTHENING WITH TIME DURING AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY INVOF LOW...WARM FRONT AND TROUGH WHERE RELATIVELY BACKED SFC WINDS CONTRIBUTE TO ENLARGED 0-1 AND 0-3 KM AGL HODOGRAPHS. FCST WIND PROFILES YIELD 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES FROM SERN SD NWD THROUGH CYCLONE PAST GFK AREA AND EWD OVER ADJOINING PORTIONS WRN MN...WHERE LOW-LEVEL SRH ALSO MAY BE MAXIMIZED. LCL HEIGHTS WILL BE ON HIGH END OF SPECTRUM BUT TORNADOES STILL MAY OCCUR WITH A SUPERCELL OR TWO IN REGIME NEAR LOW AND TROUGH. MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE 1500-3000 J/KG IS POSSIBLE...AIDED BY STEEP LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MID-60S F. CLUSTER OF TSTMS MAY PERSIST FROM AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY AND MOVE EWD OVER PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL MN...WITH RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND OCNL HAIL. DEEPER MIXING AND HIGHER LCL ARE FCST SWD ACROSS SERN SD INTO NEB...ALONG WITH GRADUAL LESSENING OF BOTH SRH AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH SWD EXTENT. NONETHELESS...COMBINATION OF FRONTAL LIFT...DIABATICALLY WEAKENED CINH...WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER...AND AT LEAST MRGL DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR SUGGEST SCATTERED MULTICELL SVR IS POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Very impressive soundings coming out of the latest runs of the RAP in northeastern SD tomorrow afternoon/evening, if that cap goes, especially along the northern axis of instability, and you get supercells moving into LL shear like this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 lol Why is that a lol? That is clearly the highest risk location for today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Svr Tstm watch issued, things look to go linear before LL shear really maximizes. I've been reading old svr threads a lot this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.