CFS Switches To Western Atlantic Ridge Pattern For August

[bluewave]

FWIW, this is the first shift in the pattern that the CFS monthly has been showing recently.

The positive 500 mb height anomalies over the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes have

been locked into that position since the spring. The CFS shifts the positive 500 mb height

anomalies further into the West while the Western Atlantic Ridge builds toward the coast.

This is still an above normal temperature pattern for our area, but may be more favorable

for convection and rains with a moist flow around the Bermuda High. It will be interesting

to see if the model has some success with the forecast as the recent pattern has been

very persistent.

Spring and summer pattern so far

CFS August forecast

[TheTrials]

cooler days, warmer nights? still will be above normal no doubt, but brutal heat isn't in the cards. I think we see a scorcher of a September however. +6 to +10 across the board.

[winterwarlock]

I call this dog days....humid humid humid

[Ed Lizard]

I like this, if true, for reasons alluded to in the banter thread.

[Guest Pamela]

I call this dog days....humid humid humid

"When Sirius rises with the sun...mark the Dog Days well begun..."

...ancient Roman proverb

[NEG NAO]

if you get the atlantic ridge in just the right position while there is a tropical storm/hurricane approaching the united states that would also help steer these up the east coast in august through october and with the above normal sea temps up here they will stay stronger longer up the coast.....

[nycsnow]

if you get the atlantic ridge in just the right position while there is a tropical storm/hurricane approaching the united states that would also help steer these up the east coast in august through september and with the above normal sea temps they will stay stronger longer up the coast.........

Ed lizard was saying this yesterday in the banter thread. I hope we get some tropical action

[ag3]

I call this dog days....humid humid humid

But it's also a wet pattern.

[TheTrials]

But it's also a wet pattern.

low temps are gonna really inflate the above normals for august

[winterwarlock]

But it's also a wet pattern.

we'll see, i see it as more hit or miss chances.

this past week, I have just .63 from the three storm days...0 on Monday, .31 on Thurs and .32 yesterday

some areas get more than others, I just see it as a typical summer pattern we always seem to go through in August.

[bluewave]

The CFS is doing a great job so far this month. The forecast continues with a trough back toward the lakes

and a big Western Atlantic Ridge axis. The above normal temperature pattern will be closer to the East Coast

with the cool anomalies expanding to our west this coming week. Notice how the cooler weather in the forecast

back over the Midwest contrasts with the year to date in those locations.

[bluewave]

Really nice job with the main ridge locations.