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El Nino And Neutral: Season Snowfall Totals In The Midwest/Lakes

Chicago WX

By Chicago WX,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

A little far out, but for those sick of summer, especially this one full of heat....well, if we end up with an El Nino winter, which seems to be the likely outcome by the experts...here's a chart of season snowfall totals in such winters (since 1950) for several sites in the Midwest/Lakes in this sub-forum. There is no doubt we can move back further in time in identifying El Nino winters/seasons due to available ENSO data, but I decided to use this time period because all of these sites had available/"accurate" snowfall data.

I used the NINO 3.4 values as per the Climate Prediction Center, with the tri-monthly numbers shown for NDJ, DJF, JFM.

http://www.cpc.ncep....ensoyears.shtml

The sites are labeled by their current official station identifier. But for example, ORD is the current site for Chicago, but everything prior to 1981-82 in the chart is from MDW (the official for those times). This is the exception rather than the rule though. Also keep in mind, official sites for each location may have moved around through the years (such as MQT, notice the differences). Nevertheless, the charts/data presented below...

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hm8

hm8

Posted
Posted

Given the spread of 7.1 to 57.9 at IND, what else is a good indicator?

You could look at the strength of the Nino, which he provided....in general, weak/weakening el ninos seem to correlate with higher snowfall.

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Geos

Geos

Posted
Posted

Kokomo - Yeah I'll be rooting for neutral. Sounds like a safe bet at this point in time. Seems like it's hard to get a straight neutral winter though! lol

Edit: Maybe a weak El Nino- thought of 01-02 also. +0.5-0.8 is probably the best to shoot for.

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QVectorman

QVectorman

Posted
Posted

Great work again! Trends are one thing, but as the numbers show, clearly you can never use enso as a sole factor. Since 1950, Nino winters have ranged from 15.4" to 63.8" at DTW, and neutral winters have ranged from 18.0" to 74.0"!

Ya I was just recalling this conundrum from last year looking at this same data myself. There is no rhyme or reason to ENSO for DTW. Even when you start adding in NAO and EPO there is hardly a pattern to discern. It makes me what to scream FUDGE!!

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Jonger

Jonger

Posted
Posted

Ya I was just recalling this conundrum from last year looking at this same data myself. There is no rhyme or reason to ENSO for DTW. Even when you start adding in NAO and EPO there is hardly a pattern to discern. It makes me what to scream FUDGE!!

Just give me negative NAO and I'll enjoy a clipper express with below normal temps.

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  • 1 month later...
trapperman

trapperman

Posted
Posted

Conventional wisdom say yes...but its a combination of more than just the nao. Heck we have had rashes of -NAO since Jan 1st through now..We roasted. A good amount of this Summer heat was with a -NAO.

Yes, good point, but it was also accompanied by mostly a negative to neutral PNA. Give us a positive PNA and a negative NAO and like someone said above, I'll take 2-3" clipper expresses all winter long.

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Jonger

Jonger

Posted
Posted

Yes, good point, but it was also accompanied by mostly a negative to neutral PNA. Give us a positive PNA and a negative NAO and like someone said above, I'll take 2-3" clipper expresses all winter long.

They trigger LES as good as anything... I'm coming at this not caring about IMBY though.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

Tim outdoes himself once again. Thanks for this. Good reference material.

For Toronto, the numbers indicate a Nina>Nada>Nino hierarchy when it comes to seasonal snowfall proficiency. But as Josh pointed out with Detroit's numbers, there can be a lot of range. Keep El Nino from going too strong, with some modest high latitude blocking (modest being the key word, 2009-10 was a killer) and there are several 60-70" seasonal snowfall examples with Nino here at YYZ.

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Jonger

Jonger

Posted
Posted

I can see your train of thought being an avid snowmobiler...for me though, its all about MBY...and then when time comes for an up north trip or two, simply go where the best snow is :)

I still want Howell to do well. I would love to ride locally too... Plus I enjoy snow outside my window.

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