Sock Puppet Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 It is? Still getting some light rain here The sun is out now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 SREF and NAM came in looking pretty good. Highest tornado potential looks to be in the southern NY region. Wouldn't be surprised to see some brief reports from that area. Helicity looks a little stronger as well. I'll try to go outside today, but I'm concerned about the danger level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The 9z SREF has really ramped significant tor ingredient probabilities over the Northeast. It's close to a high risk threat: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Hi-res NAM at 3z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Oh gosh - putting me on the spot! I would say as a rough guess that things start popping around 3PM and quickly merge into bowing segments that last through the rest of the evening (and contain the worst of the wind) - even a 5% is still a very 'isolated' tornado risk. This MCS did exactly what we needed it to. Not only did it moisten the boundary layer to lower LCL heights but it will help slow the northern progression of the warm front and contribute to frontogenesis along it, hence the tornado risk area being shifted further south. Now we wait (and try to get work done and probably fail at it). Good post. However, climatalogy dictates that we have about a 0.5% chance of tornadoes during each summer day. Having a 5% tornado risk today means that a tornado is 10 times higher than normal. So that is significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 It is? Still getting some light rain here Yes. The rain has stopped here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 likely from NE PA into N NJ, SE NY, and the NYC Area. ...and CNJ The parameters look very favorable for the metro area, agreed. Bulk shear remains > 30-35 kts through this evening intersecting 2500-3000 J/KG CAPE values. Still think highest tor risk is NE PA/S NY/W CT. I believe we'll see some intense discrete cells firing around 21z, to our NW, eventually congealing into a larger line of convection which will probably bow out and become a damaging wind event, propagating to the SE with time. My guess is some of the embedded cells in the northern part of the developing complex could be tornadic, in NE PA, maybe NNJ and southern Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 The new SREF is going absolutely bonkers along the warm front. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Just had some lightning and thunder here in garden city, nothing crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Morning convective debris rapidly weakening with latest visible indicating more breaks...probably full sun for most of NJ within the next 1-1.5 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I agree with Earthlight and Isotherm about the nature of the thunderstorms this evening and how it may go down in evolution. A significant wind damage event seems probable in our area this evening. The initial supercells this afternoon that form in N PA / C PA may struggle with tornadogenesis for you chasers out there. Anything tornadic this evening will not be chaseable not only for the location/timing but with their nature (fast / embedded in a line). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Its definitely nowcasting time, but heres the 12z NAM 4km for those of little faith. Looks like an MCV over CT with a bowing segement extending south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The new SREF is going absolutely bonkers along the warm front. Wow. and the front ends up where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The new SREF is going absolutely bonkers along the warm front. Wow. Best run so far? Do you think a derecho actually forms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Loving the way the clouds are falling apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 What are the chances of seeing a drecho? Im pretty sure there hasnt been one here at least during my life time. I know there was a severe one in the Adirondacks that caused severe tree damage maybe ten years ago and of course the one just south of us recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The new SREF is going absolutely bonkers along the warm front. Wow. Please elaborate on sig tor and supercell parameters and shear. I am on mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Loving the way the clouds are falling apart the warm front should introduce some CIN and help clear us out this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 the warm front should introduce some CIN and help clear us out this afternoon Ohio is aleady getting primed after just 1-2 hours of sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 Tom, I agree with most of your thoughts. But I think the best area for a possible derecho with widespread wind damage has shifted south to include much of Northern NJ and NYC. The tornado threat also will probably run as far south as the NY/PA and NY/NJ border. These are some of the highest SPC SREF severe probabilities I have ever seen in this area. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref_matrix_hover.php?fhr=f039&startdate=2012072509&field=SREF_03HR_SVR_PROBS__#image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Don't think anyone mentioned this, but the 8 AM outlook increased hail probs. for NYC from 15 to 30%. I would guess they increase tor probs. to 10% in the next 2 outlooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 I agree with Earthlight and Isotherm about the nature of the thunderstorms this evening and how it may go down in evolution. A significant wind damage event seems probable in our area this evening. The initial supercells this afternoon that form in N PA / C PA may struggle with tornadogenesis for you chasers out there. Anything tornadic this evening will not be chaseable not only for the location/timing but with their nature (fast / embedded in a line). I agree about the tornado threat embedded in the line of storms. We could see some supercells and rotation in any MCS that forms with the locally backed low level winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I agree about the tornado threat embedded in the line of storms. We could see some supercells and rotation in any MCS that forms with the locally backed low level winds. Daytime supercells are most likely from N PA into NW CT before the wicked line comes through with increasing synoptic support. While this feature will have embedded tornadoes, the chaseable stuff will be out ahead. Tornadogenesis will be tough but it is definitely doable N,C / NE PA into S NY/far NW NJ and W CT3-8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I think that our wind probs. on the watch will be something like this: Wind: >95%/70%, 80 MPH Hail: 70%/50%, 2-inch Tor: 40%/20% Anyone else want to take a guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 What are the chances of seeing a drecho? Im pretty sure there hasnt been one here at least during my life time. I know there was a severe one in the Adirondacks that caused severe tree damage maybe ten years ago and of course the one just south of us recently. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_State_Labor_Day_Derechos ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 State of emergency going to be activated in NY starting at 1pm http://www.governor....ssible-tornados I have never seen this before for a severe weather . Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 State of emergency going to be activated in NY starting at 1pm http://www.governor....ssible-tornados Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I highly doubt that the NYC metro will see a PDS Severe thunderstorm watch later. The tornado threat will likely prompt them to issue a decent prob Tornado watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Sun starting to break through the clouds now here. I'm still deciding what to do to prepare. It's gonna be busy today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Starting to clear in NJ Here we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.