psv88 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 nothing Maybe an average of .50 in the bucket area wide all said and done tonight, CT looks to be the big winner, doesnt look like Hudson valley even sees much. City/BK/Jersey look pretty dry. Long island has a decent shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 FWIW RAP has a strong line dropping into the area between 8 and 9, some good storms in NNJ that die out as they hit the island, area clears out by 11. Weird runs. SREFS linger precip until like 3 am, while RAP has it clear after 11 with more storms in NJ, less in CT...all over the place! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Guys i live in the screw zone for severe weather and im nowhere near as pessimistic as some of you. This is one of our best chances for a widespread severe outbreak in years and some calling it bust the morning of? C'mon if anything i should be worried lol. All parameters are still very good for severe development, we just gotta watch the radar afternoon and especially into the evening to really get an idea of whats happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The NAM did a good job with the placement of the storms from Western PA to NY this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Guys i live in the screw zone for severe weather and im nowhere near as pessimistic as some of you. This is one of our best chances for a widespread severe outbreak in years and some calling it bust the morning of? C'mon if anything i should be worried lol. All parameters are still very good for severe development, we just gotta watch the radar afternoon and especially into the evening to really get an idea of whats happening 1. We get it. 2. we get it. 3. Storms are forecast to weaken quickly eastward across the island, you will see some rain and thunder, but definitely no severe. Sorry bud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 GFS is whacky and was too far north with this mornings rain. it also has the area barely getting anything later, maybe some storms around 8/9 but nothing like SREFS/RAP are showing. I think it has been pretty poor with this event. handled this morning rains pretty poorly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 When do the models ever depict the right location of convection on a sim radar or QPF map? Use the parameters in these situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Media really hyping, people thinking we are going to get hit by a tornado this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Media really hyping, people thinking we are going to get hit by a tornado this afternoon As they should warn the public Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The clear sector moving over Ohio and Western PA now, should be over us by early this afternoon. We will rapidly destabilize, before the next round the storms, this evening: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 When do the models ever depict the right location of convection on a sim radar or QPF map? Use the parameters in these situations. GFS was off by 300 miles. But point taken. Just stating which models were best, so far NAM. BTW the morning rains will clear by 1130, full sunshine rest of the day to heat it up. Shouldnt have too bad an effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 GFS was off by 300 miles. But point taken. Just stating which models were best, so far NAM. BTW the morning rains will clear by 1130, full sunshine rest of the day to heat it up. Shouldnt have too bad an effect Thank you, every met last night had this dying mcs coming through between 6-9am. So far right on track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 When do the models ever depict the right location of convection on a sim radar or QPF map? Use the parameters in these situations. Our parameters still look good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 GFS was off by 300 miles. But point taken. Just stating which models were best, so far NAM. BTW the morning rains will clear by 1130, full sunshine rest of the day to heat it up. Shouldnt have too bad an effect And the NAM also has over 2000 SBCAPE after sunset with fairly significant shear and winds in the low levels. Even with the coastal environment here, those paraemeters could still bring some severe to parts of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 And the NAM also has over 2000 SBCAPE after sunset with fairly significant shear and winds in the low levels. Even with the coastal environment here, those paraemeters could still bring some severe to parts of LI. I am intrigued by the SREFS general idea...storms blowing up in CT, where the LLJ will be primed, and moving southeast to Suffolk County, might be a good night for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 @JimCantore: The 70mph gust in #Chicago this morning was a hint at today damaging wind threat highlighted here: http://t.co/Y55HMhw0 #severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Kinda worried by the amount of cloud cover we have here. Would be encouraging if we had sun during the peak heating hours. NE folks are getting antsy... Sent from my 4G 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Kinda worried by the amount of cloud cover we have here. Would be encouraging if we had sun during the peak heating hours. NE folks are getting antsy... Sent from my 4G 2 Yeah but clearing starting in western pa/Ohio so well see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Sun just broke out at home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 Please stop the cloud cover worry. All the models had this. The clearing over Western PA will eventually spread our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 That batch of precip coming through Union Middlesex County did not have any thunder/lightning with it - any observations from that line just entering northwest NJ ? http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?num=6&delay=15&scale=1.00&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Please stop the cloud cover worry. All the models had this. The clearing over Western PA will eventually spread our way. Earthlight were still in the game as much as yesterday, i just think alot of people are jus prematurely panicking about this cloud cover/decaying MCS. The models this morning still have us in an area of enhanced severe weather later this evening right? I mean bluewave just posted this morning the 925mb chart that showed 55kt winds pretty above NYC and points east and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 That batch of precip coming through Union Middlesex County did not have any thunder/lightning with it - any observations from that line just entering northwest NJ ? http://www.wundergro...ls=1&rainsnow=0 its weak our CAPE is zero and the LI is positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Yeah I barely got a sprinkle out of that as it quickly died out. That batch of precip coming through Union Middlesex County did not have any thunder/lightning with it - any observations from that line just entering northwest NJ ? http://www.wundergro...ls=1&rainsnow=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 The MDT has been shifted farther south with the new Day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 There is a surge of MUCAPE, ahead of line of t-storms over NNJ: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 It's interesting that some convection is firing this morning a little south of where the NAM suggested. Maybe the PM convection will nudge a few miles further south from the 6Z guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 078 ACUS01 KWNS 261222 SWODY1 SPC AC 261219 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0719 AM CDT THU JUL 26 2012 VALID 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY ACROSS PA TO SRN NEW ENGLAND... ..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM OK TO WI...AND EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC... ..OH VALLEY ACROSS PA TO SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH LATE EVENING A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING SEWD OVER NW MN THIS MORNING...AND THIS WAVE IS PRECEDED BY SEVERAL EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA AND MCV/S THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE OH VALLEY/PA/NY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS PERSIST THIS MORNING FROM NRN IL/INDIANA ACROSS LOWER MI ALONG AND N OF A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS FARTHER E INTO PA/SRN NY IN A ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WAA. THE OVERALL TREND IN THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONTINUED WEAKENING THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH THE OUTFLOW/EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO KEEP MOVING SEWD ACROSS IL/INDIANA/SE LOWER MI. THE WARM FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SURFACE LOW AND DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS PA/SRN NY/SRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION. STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 2500-4000 J PER KG/ AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL ALLOW NEW SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY ABOUT 18Z ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA/OH AND W/NW PA ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. CONVECTION WILL THEN GROW QUICKLY INTO MULTIPLE BANDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE SPREADING EWD ACROSS PA TOWARD SE NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND...AND ESEWD TOWARD NRN WV/MD...IN THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME. CONVECTIVE MODE WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY LINEAR IN THE FIRST 1-2 HOURS AFTER INITIATION...WITH BOWING SEGMENTS THE MAIN CONCERN. ADDITIONALLY... DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER NEAR THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE NY AND ADJACENT AREAS...WHERE EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MULTIPLE SWATHS GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...AND 35-45 KT WLY MIDLEVEL FLOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Upton Is not worried about any cloud cover messing our severe chances up - here is the latest AFD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 748 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2012 NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/ A WARM FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS ACCOMPANYING IT. AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST DEEPENS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE AREA WILL BE WARM SECTORED AND RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON AS IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY...WITH CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 3000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR UP TO 40 KT. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MENTION POSSIBILITY WITH MAINLY THREATS DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...AS LINES AND CLUSTERS OF STORMS DEVELOP. WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN NJ ZONES MAY TOUCH 100 BRIEFLY. WITH UNCERTAINTY...SHORT LIVED TIMING...AND ISOLATED NATURE WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY. THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 its weak our CAPE is zero and the LI is positive Theres elevated cape and the line thats coming in from the west has lightning. As the warm front passes, cape will increase rapidly this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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