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July 26, 2012 Severe Weather Potential


earthlight

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Somewhat better than I expected, winds came in pretty good and the rain was intense (still raining good here), but I've seen considerably better even in Long Beach. The marine layer I think took a toll, as well as downslope as it came through NJ. So incredibly difficult to get severe weather down here to the coast.

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Guest Pamela

Adjacent Mt. Sinai with just 0.10" in the rain bucket today so far...more comng but not sure if it will re-intensify or just be steady moderate showers.

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I would say it was fun, but compared to what we've seen this summer in Monmouth, other storms blow today's event out of the water. It was pretty disappointing given the impressive parameters, just goes to show convection is extremely difficult to predict. I didn't like the fact that we had to wait until after 6-7pm to get the storms, as usually they start dying by that point. However, I thought the high sfc instability and shear would compensate. Oh well, it was interesting to track at least.

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I would say it was fun, but compared to what we've seen this summer in Monmouth, other storms blow today's event out of the water. It was pretty disappointing given the impressive parameters, just goes to show convection is extremely difficult to predict. I didn't like the fact that we had to wait until after 6-7pm to get the storms, as usually they start dying by that point. However, I thought the high sfc instability and shear would compensate. Oh well, it was interesting to track at least.

in the end, it was the mid level lapse rates that did us in.

I was also wondering if everything has been two hours ealier would it have helped, but a lot of these events are better at night and morning, so not sure that theory holds water.

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I drove to Danbury, CT to get to the center of the bow echo. Worst thunderstorm I have ever seen. I estimate 60-70 mph wind gusts for 5 minutes, then heavy rain. Many trees down. My car was getting rocked. The sky was pitch back. This was truly a severe thunderstorm, which is pretty rare around here.

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Guest Pamela

I would really like someone to figure out what needs to be in place for us to get actual severe weather, clearly today wasn't good enough. What did other big time severe weather events have that we need?

The conditions are usually right out in the Great Plains....the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma are prime territory for severe t-storms and tornadoes.

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I would really like someone to figure out what needs to be in place for us to get actual severe weather, clearly today wasn't good enough. What did other big time severe weather events have that we need?

Better mid-level lapse rates associated with a solid EML, I'd imagine.

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So andyhb... how was that 65kts? I think you owe someone an apology :lol:

Considering he was doing that essentially all day...and that there were indeed 65 kt winds in the velocity scans coming at superstorm, I stand by it.

This was always leaning towards a Northern PA/South Central NY deal anyway (and it delivered in that sense).

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I would say it was fun, but compared to what we've seen this summer in Monmouth, other storms blow today's event out of the water. It was pretty disappointing given the impressive parameters, just goes to show convection is extremely difficult to predict. I didn't like the fact that we had to wait until after 6-7pm to get the storms, as usually they start dying by that point. However, I thought the high sfc instability and shear would compensate. Oh well, it was interesting to track at least.

If it were a true derecho time of day shouldn't matter. Pretty run of the mill squall the kind of which we get several times a year.

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By the coast the marine layer is tough to beat. It was always a tell tale sign to me on LI when the line shows the pattern it did today as it approached the coast. It kind of pushes east into CT and almost splits from the section in NJ. As it finally pushes toward the shore the stable air there kills it quick when it finally crosses the sound. LI and the coast is more likely to see actual severe weather when the storms move due north to south as opposed to west to east. Again look at today's Mesoanalysis and you will see there was plenty of CIN (bad for storms) at the coast. I don't know why SPC extended the MDT as far as they did there.

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The conditions are usually right out in the Great Plains....the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma are prime territory for severe t-storms and tornadoes.

Yeah, they have the infamous elevated mixed layer due to the mid level dry punch which prevents convection from developing until the lid boils over so to speak. Over here, we rarely get that particular parameter due to our geography in general. As others have noted, not enough temp change with height was another problem. Usually you want at least 7-7.5C/km for more impressive outbreaks.

Certainly no marine layer here, so that wasn't the problem.

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