CooL Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 wow, all of northern NJ, NYC, and most of LI now in a moderate risk. 2% tornado, 45% hatched wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Figures my firsr decent severecwx outbreak happens when im on vacation in nyc. Haha. Looking forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Craig Allen On-Air Inc Could be one of those hellish days of severe weather around here on Thursday (possibly Friday too). Been called back from taking a mini vacation so tune in to 880 frequently for updates. Most likely time of any potentially severe weather will be from about 1pm on but even more so, towards evening Friday will not be a 'hellish' severe weather day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 For anyone with GR2 such as SmokeEater, it would be greatly appreciated if you can announce the gate-to-gate shear velocities in knots for any supercell that has decent rotation during this morning and evening. I would but I'll be somewhat in your backyard, lol. I'm chasing the event starting in Newburgh, NY, be there around 1:30pm. I'll gladly post Radarscope images as conditions warrant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Day 1 outlook = pitch tent It has 45% hatched wind further south, 2-5% tor, 15-30% hail Personally, I would have NYC/NE NJ in 10% tor and SE NY and SW CT in 15% tor. Eh, I still think the tornado threat is marginal, to get a 15% tor in the NE, it better be a historic tornado outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Eh, I still think the tornado threat is marginal, to get a 15% tor in the NE, it better be a historic tornado outbreak. It all depends if we have low enough LCL heights and properly-veered directional S-SE surface winds. We already have high EHI and SRH values. If we clear out fast enough from the morning MCS, then the SPC may increase the tornado probs. in later outlooks, especially if the warm front does not advance that far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Was just watching the news and there saying most of the storms will take place in tne mid Hudson valley and conn.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Look at that national radar. I haven't seen so many reds, oranges and yellows since last Autumn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Look at that national radar. I haven't seen so many reds, oranges and yellows since last Autumn! I'm not liking the looks of it, that's a hell of a lot of crapvection coming east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I'm not liking the looks of it, that's a hell of a lot of crapvection coming east. Not looking good, latest run of the RAP tapers off some of the parameters... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Not looking good, latest run of the RAP tapers off some of the parameters... That's what I was worried about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 This initial surge has nothing to do with the main convection. Its just associated with the warm front and things should rapidly destabilize in the warm sector. That's what I was worried about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 looks like theres a line of storms moving southest from binghamton. any chances that can hit us or is gonna die before it reaches the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 looks like theres a line of storms moving southest from binghamton. any chances that can hit us or is gonna die before it reaches the area? They could survive. But it's mostly elevated stuff. The main severe threat comes after 4pm today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I don't think that I have ever seen a stronger depiction of the winds all the way down to 925 mb that the NAM is showing later with such strong instability in place around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 There seems to be alot more rain on the radar then what was anticipated this morning...i wonder if this cloud deck kills the severe chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Spc wrf not enthused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Big bust overnight in western and central NY wonder when spc gets the hint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Bluewave thats like 55 kts right over the island. That right there is no joke! Some people here sound like there calling bust already. But i gotta say by 12-1 when we start clearing i think were gonna destabilize really really fast and we'll be primed when evening gets here for some nasty storms. Dont you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Bluewave thats like 55 kts right over the island. That right there is no joke! Some people here sound like there calling bust already. But i gotta say by 12-1 when we start clearing i think were gonna destabilize really really fast and we'll be primed when evening gets here for some nasty storms. Dont you think? That line is breaking up / moving quick we might clear sooner, still clear here In Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Talking about later today. Right now its just scattered stuff left over from the dying overnight MCS. Once we get some heat going this afternoon the instability is gonna go through the roof. By 4-6 PM there should be a ton of severe action in our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Talking about later today. Right now its just scattered stuff left over from the dying overnight MCS. Once we get some heat going this afternoon the instability is gonna go through the roof. By 4-6 PM there should be a ton of severe action in our area I meant for later, sorry I meant this lines falling apart quick which is good lets get it away and let the sun cook, so many people calling bust already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Bluewave thats like 55 kts right over the island. That right there is no joke! Some people here sound like there calling bust already. But i gotta say by 12-1 when we start clearing i think were gonna destabilize really really fast and we'll be primed when evening gets here for some nasty storms. Dont you think? We should really start to destabilize from around 15z on as that clearing over Western PA races east toward our area. Then it will all come down to the radar trends later today into this evening as to which locations in the Northeast get hardest hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 SREFS are interesting and around 11 pm have a cluster moving southeast from Eastern CT to Eastern LI...could be an eastern LI special... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 SREFS are interesting and around 11 pm have a cluster moving southeast from Eastern CT to Eastern LI...could be an eastern LI special... What do they show for the rest of the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 @bluewave- that 925 mb chart you posted with the wind speed is showing some pretty poweful winds aloft. I think some of these storms that do form today have a great chance of producing some wind gusts in excess of 65mph or higher and some large hail as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 What do they show for the rest of the area? nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 What do they show for the rest of the area? Storms developing in CT around 5 and dropping SE, clipping eastern LI, Moderate/Lkght precip starting around 8 in NJ moving east into the area, heavy storms in CT around 11, really blowing up around 2 am and nailing Suffolk county, while NJ really doesnt get much, neither does the city, begins to clear out after 2 it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Storms developing in CT around 5 and dropping SE, clipping eastern LI, Moderate/Lkght precip starting around 8 in NJ moving east into the area, heavy storms in CT around 11, really blowing up around 2 am and nailing Suffolk county, while NJ really doesnt get much, neither does the city, begins to clear out after 2 it seems. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 @bluewave- that 925 mb chart you posted with the wind speed is showing some pretty poweful winds aloft. I think some of these storms that do form today have a great chance of producing some wind gusts in excess of 65mph or higher and some large hail as well Speed shear is insane over most of the area, from N PA on east. If we can get decent cells to form, the winds should definitely be insane. This crapvection is really worrying me right now though. I'm not trying to drive 4 hours, on 1-2 hrs sleep, for rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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