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July 26, 2012 Severe Weather Potential


earthlight

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my parents are in middletown ny, orange county :(

I hope you tell them to get to basement. Tornado warned cell should be hitting the bungalow colony where my future father in law is right now...ill be anxiously awaiting word

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1613

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0504 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/EASTERN PA TO SOUTHEAST NY/NYC METRO AND

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 525...

VALID 262204Z - 262330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 525 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH 525 CONTINUES UNTIL 01Z AND SEVERE TSTM

WATCH 527 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z.

SERIOUS CONCERN EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD SWATHS OF WIND DAMAGE INTO THE

EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS WITHIN WATCHES 525/527. ISOLATED TORNADOES

ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NY AND ADJACENT

PARTS OF EASTERN PA/NORTHERN NJ...WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE

OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO STEADILY SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE

COAST WITH A FAST-MOVING SEVERE MCS/DERECHO.

DISCUSSION...WELL-ORGANIZED QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /QLCS/

CONTINUES TO STEADILY PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...FROM NEAR THE

SOUTHEAST NY/NORTHEAST PA BORDER VICINITY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO

SOUTH-CENTRAL PA...WITH THE FASTEST-MOVING BOWING /NORTHEASTERN/

PORTION OF THE LINE MOVING AS FAST AS 45-50 KT. LATEST SUBJECTIVE

SURFACE ANALYSIS REFLECTS A PRESSURE FALL-RISE COUPLET...WITH MODEST

QLCS-LEADING PRESSURE FALLS...AND A 20-25 DEG F COLD POOL ALONG WITH

3 MB/2 HR PRESSURE RISES ACROSS PA IN THE TRAILING STRATIFORM WAKE

REGION OF THE QLCS. COINCIDENT WITH A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF MEAN

FLOW OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...LATEST WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM STATE

COLLEGE IS INDICATIVE OF 50 KT WINDS BETWEEN 2-6 KM IN ASSOCIATION

WITH THE QLCS WAKE REGION.

WITH ADDITIONAL FORWARD PROPAGATION/ACCELERATION AND RESULTANT

BOWING LIKELY...OF FURTHER CONCERN IS THAT THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO

STEADILY WARM LATE THIS AFTERNOON /AS OF 21Z/ IN TANDEM WITH

CLOUD-FREE SKIES AND THE NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF A WARM FRONT

TOWARD FAR SOUTHEAST NY/NYC METRO AND SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND. THESE

THERMODYNAMIC TRENDS...PRESENCE OF THE WARM FRONT...AND EXISTING

ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE MCS/COLD POOL SUGGESTS A VERY HEIGHTENED

WIND DAMAGE/SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL INTO REMAINING PARTS OF SOUTHEAST

NY/NYC METRO/SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT PARTS OF EASTERN PA

AND NJ.

..GUYER.. 07/26/2012

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I really hope this isn't one of those cases when you look back and say that this deserved a high risk.

THESE

THERMODYNAMIC TRENDS...PRESENCE OF THE WARM FRONT...AND EXISTING

ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE MCS/COLD POOL SUGGESTS A VERY HEIGHTENED

WIND DAMAGE/SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL INTO REMAINING PARTS OF SOUTHEAST

NY/NYC METRO/SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT PARTS OF EASTERN PA

AND NJ.

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I really hope this isn't one of those cases when you look back and say that this deserved a high risk.

THESE

THERMODYNAMIC TRENDS...PRESENCE OF THE WARM FRONT...AND EXISTING

ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE MCS/COLD POOL SUGGESTS A VERY HEIGHTENED

WIND DAMAGE/SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL INTO REMAINING PARTS OF SOUTHEAST

NY/NYC METRO/SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT PARTS OF EASTERN PA

AND NJ.

It might be, i think if this 2nd Derecho forming out west moves east, a High Risk might be needed on the next update

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