Quincy Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I figured it was. I was looking at radar about 90 minutes ago and it was barely anything. Downstream is not very favorable once it gets to BGM, if it gets that far. Posting from my phone now though, so data access is somewhat limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 NAM has a nice line coming through from 0z to 6z. Around 3z for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 NAM has a nice line coming through from 0z to 6z. Around 3z for NYC. Verbatim, the NAM has the strongest storms from Trials land in SWCT and north into CT and west into SENY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I'm hyped for this setup regardless of where we are now. I've been reading for the last few days, definitely going to be a widespread and powerful storms nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I wonder if this will has the potential to trump last Wednesday's NYC storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Does the line/derecho that they are talking about in sne forum on the nam hit us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Hires NAM at 0z tomorrow night or 8pm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 And here's 3z or 11pm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Hires NAM at 0z tomorrow night, That looks colorful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Wow-that gives just about everyone a good storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Hires NAM at 0z tomorrow night or 8pm: If that happens I'll be biting my fingernails off here in central Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Dr Forbes gives a lot of people a torcon of 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 When does the SPC issue a new outlook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 When does the SPC issue a new outlook? The new Day 1 Outlook comes out around 2 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The new Day 1 Outlook comes out around 2 am You think anyone gets high risk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 When does the SPC issue a new outlook? NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 0406Z (12:06AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 You think anyone gets high risk? I would be absolutely shocked. They are even very rare in the Plains. However, I would not be surprised to see a 10% tornado to our north, perhaps even hatched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I would be absolutely shocked. They are even very rare in the Plains. However, I would not be surprised to see a 10% tornado to our north, perhaps even hatched. No way they go high risk but I think it's assumed that we are mod risked with 45% hatched wind. 30% hail and my guess is we are 5% tornados with 10% probs just to our north, perhaps anyway, time will tell, but that is my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Craig Allen On-Air Inc Could be one of those hellish days of severe weather around here on Thursday (possibly Friday too). Been called back from taking a mini vacation so tune in to 880 frequently for updates. Most likely time of any potentially severe weather will be from about 1pm on but even more so, towards evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 You think anyone gets high risk? Most likely staying in mod risk, as previously said high risks are rare even for the Plains, let alone the Northeast. As significant as this event could be I really don't think we'll be upgraded to a high risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 You think anyone gets high risk? Extremely unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 The SPC WRF hasn't been updating until around 05z....I really want to see how it breaks down the events tomorrow...although the 12z run tomorrow is way more important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Thanks guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 News12 NJ TV met just said "tommorrow could be a very dangerous situation". Really hyped the storm threat and highlighted wind and hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 You know, having some sort of a mild cap is sometimes a good thing if we want to see sustaining and developing supercells. This helps in precluding convective debris and anvil runoff by the morning MCS that would hurt our CAPE and lapse rates for the evening. I just hope that tomorrow's event does not become another 6/6/2010 in which the opposite of the above scenario happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Not sure how the NMM and ARW do with severe wx but neither are very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 You think anyone gets high risk? very unlikely, unless we get a monster derecho or the tornado threat over performs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 For anyone with GR2 such as SmokeEater, it would be greatly appreciated if you can announce the gate-to-gate shear velocities in knots for any supercell that has decent rotation during this morning and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Day 1 outlook = pitch tent It has 45% hatched wind further south, 2-5% tor, 15-30% hail Personally, I would have NYC/NE NJ in 10% tor and SE NY and SW CT in 15% tor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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