Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 SPC is confident in the progression of this line into the more populated areas. New update should have little if any changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Looking at the radar out of Binghampton you can really see this evolving into more of a tornadic threat than perhaps thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Severe Thunderstorm Watch being issued right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Wow...what happened to this thread lol Cells in WNY are starting to really blow up now into that line. (More cells for the Amish as they redevelop in Ohio) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Severe Thunderstorm Watch being issued right now. that's all ? :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 527 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 400 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 527 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS NYC005-047-059-061-071-079-081-085-087-103-119-270300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0527.120726T2000Z-120727T0300Z/ NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRONX KINGS NASSAU NEW YORK ORANGE PUTNAM QUEENS RICHMOND ROCKLAND SUFFOLK WESTCHESTER $$ SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 527 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 400 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 527 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS NJC003-005-007-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-037- 039-041-270300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0527.120726T2000Z-120727T0300Z/ NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN ESSEX GLOUCESTER HUDSON HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN PASSAIC SOMERSET SUSSEX UNION WARREN $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Impressive signature just went right through downtown Elmira... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 can't believe it's not confirmed on the ground yet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 527 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 400 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CONNECTICUT WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY SOUTHEAST NEW YORK EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 400 PM UNTIL 1100 PM EDT. HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF GROTON CONNECTICUT TO 65 MILES NORTHWEST OF WILMINGTON DELAWARE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 524...WW 525...WW 526... DISCUSSION...A LINE OF FAST-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL PA WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAPID AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION COUPLED WITH FAST LOW/MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF RATHER WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE...AND IN THE MORE INTENSE BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 95/70 wind probs for the new watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 What a hook... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 All of NJ in a MDT now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 I'll rarely post something like this...but Holy sh**. CONSIDERED UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK BUT RELATIVELY MODEST MID/HIGH-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED IN REGIONAL 18Z RAOBS SUGGEST MODERATE RISK APPEARS MOST APPROPRIATE ATTM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 5% tornado probs got expanded quite a bit as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Are you kidding? CONSIDERED UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK BUT RELATIVELYMODEST MID/HIGH-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED IN REGIONAL 18Z RAOBS SUGGEST MODERATE RISK APPEARS MOST APPROPRIATE ATTM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 From the SPC ...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT/POTENTIAL DERECHO APPEAR TO BE UNFOLDING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 5% risk expanded but no tor watch. Also the hail threat has been decreased to 15% again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 CONSIDERED UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK BUT RELATIVELY MODEST MID/HIGH-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED IN REGIONAL 18Z RAOBS SUGGEST MODERATE RISK APPEARS MOST APPROPRIATE ATTM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I'll rarely post something like this...but Holy sh**. CONSIDERED UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK BUT RELATIVELY MODEST MID/HIGH-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED IN REGIONAL 18Z RAOBS SUGGEST MODERATE RISK APPEARS MOST APPROPRIATE ATTM. Pretty crazy but glad they did not. That is usually the kiss of death. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 TP: 89F DP: 71F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 They must be thinking the worst of the tornadic activity stays just to our north, hence why they went with just a high prob watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Pretty crazy but glad they did not. That is usually the kiss of death. Lol Not when you have line like this going into high instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 If this actually turns into a Derecho once it reaches EPA...you might see an upgrade statement. But hey, I might be riding the high from just seeing that they considered it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Wow. Maybe 80mph winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Tornado reported in Elmira according to Channel 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I think there is a circulation in there but the radar data is skewed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 411 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0358 PM TORNADO ELMIRA 42.09N 76.81W 07/26/2012 CHEMUNG NY EMERGENCY MNGR NUMEROUS TREES DOWN... NUMEROUS ROOFS OFF BUILDINGS... PEOPLE TRAPPED IN VEHICLES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 If this actually turns into a Derecho once it reaches EPA...you might see an upgrade statement. But hey, I might be riding the high from just seeing that they considered it. They can issue a meso disc and upgrade if the need arises. They have done that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Reports of numerous tress and roofs off buldings up in Elmira. NUMEROUS TREES DOWN... NUMEROUS ROOFS OFF BUILDINGS... PEOPLE TRAPPED IN VEHICLES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The sections of the line near Elmira and west of Williamsport look particularly nasty... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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