Brian5671 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 going to have to hurry to get to NYC in 90 minutes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Initial damage reports... 1830 UNK FRANKLIN VENANGO PA 4139 7984 WIDESPREAD TREES DOWN THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY. (PBZ) 1835 UNK NEW MADISON DARKE OH 3997 8471 TWO TREES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED. (ILN) 1845 UNK SALEM COLUMBIANA OH 4090 8086 TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN AND AROUND THE TOWN. (PBZ) 1856 UNK SMETHPORT MCKEAN PA 4181 7844 TREES REPORTED DOWN NEAR SMETHPORT. (CTP) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Seeing the timing in that statement (between 5-6) hard to believe we don't have a watch yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 From that SWS, it seems to me that Upton has been talking to the SPC. We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 That has to be someone typing too fast, no way they can expect that to get to NYC by 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 looks like it's starting to bow out on the north part of that line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 TP: 87F DP: 70F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 8pm into NYC would be more likely unless something forms in front of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 My main concern is that discrete cells will begin to fire ahead of that line in CPA. Those cells could be very intense with macro-bursts/large hail given the impressive bulk shear and super cell parameters. Could be a very rough night for a lot of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 1920 200 VANDALIA MONTGOMERY OH 3988 8419 NEAR LITTLE YORK ROAD 2 inch hail report Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Some discreat activity is starting to look healthier now, we shall see if it can get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Tornado on the ground boys. ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 330 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... JEFFERSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... * UNTIL 415 PM EDT * AT 327 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR BROOKVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SUMMERVILLE... BROOKVILLE... REYNOLDSVILLE... PUNXSUTAWNEY... THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAY... I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 73 AND 96. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE INCH SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Rule of thumb is a derecho likes to ride the 582dm. What happened a couple weeks ago was the 582dm was to our south hence why it moved further south. Thats one factor that caused that to happen This one looks to be a bit south of the 582dm line, but still not going much south of the 500mb flow which is about east/ESE. Unless this line somehow splits in its northern half, I do not see how this can possibly entirely miss the NYC area to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Downdraft CAPE looks very impressive in CPA. Should be a large uptick in severe potential once that line gets there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 that line is going to split, the top portion is what affects us this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 going to have to hurry to get to NYC in 90 minutes.... We're at 88 right now. Don't think it's going to be too difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Discrete cells are forming ahead of the bowing segment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Looks like Central PA will be the primary location should any supercells get going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 This one looks to be a bit south of the 582dm line, but still not going much south of the 500mb flow which is about east/ESE. Unless this line somehow splits, I do not see how this can possibly entirely miss the NYC area to the south. The height gradient is guiding the MCS directly along the periphery of 40-50kts of effective shear and an axis of building high instability...this MCS should continue to mature and accelerate eastward with N NJ/E PA/SE NY/ CT likely to be impacted by a widespread severe wx episode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 We're at 88 right now. Don't think it's going to be too difficult. not the temp the line of storms--they are too fast on the movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Just saw on TV that there is a tornado watch for the mid Hudson valley and Lichfield county conn till 9pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 TOR heading towards Elmira Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN CHEMUNG COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK... SOUTHEASTERN STEUBEN COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK... NORTHWESTERN BRADFORD COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... * UNTIL 415 PM EDT. * AT 333 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR ADDISON... MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. * THE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... LINDLEY AND CORNING BY 340 PM EDT... CATON...SOUTH CORNING AND EAST CORNING BY 345 PM EDT... PINE CITY AND WEST ELMIRA BY 355 PM EDT... SOUTHPORT...ELMIRA AND GILLETT BY 400 PM EDT... LOWMAN AND WELLSBURG BY 405 PM EDT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxnyc Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Just saw on TV that there is a tornado watch for the mid Hudson valley and Lichfield county conn till 9pm Yup my county is included Sullivan county ny storms are west of us moving east at 65 mph Tornado Watch Expires 9:00 PM EDT on July 26, 2012 Statement as of 3:03 PM EDT on July 26, 2012 Tornado Watch 525 remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for the following locations NY . New York counties included are Albany Broome Cayuga Chemung Chenango Columbia Cortland Delaware Dutchess Fulton Greene Hamilton Herkimer Madison Montgomery Oneida Onondaga Otsego Rensselaer Saratoga Schenectady Schoharie Schuyler Seneca Steuben "Sullivan " Tioga Tompkins Ulster Warren Washington Yates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Clarion was indeed the wrong place to be. 1915 UNK 5 NW COOKSBURG CLARION PA 4138 7928 TREES DOWN ON HOUSE. PERSON TRAPPED. (PBZ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Here we go, boys and girls! MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1608 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0237 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OH...NERN KY...WV...PA...SERN NY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...NJ. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 524... VALID 261937Z - 262130Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 524 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...CONTINUE WW ALONG/AHEAD OF STG-SVR TSTMS NOW OVER NRN/WRN PORTIONS. NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON...DOWNSHEAR FOR ERN PA EWD TOWARD SWRN NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND INCLUDING NYC METRO AREA. DISCUSSION...INCREASINGLY WELL-ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE...WITH EMBEDDED BOW/LEWP SEGMENTS...WAS EVIDENT AT 1930Z FROM STEUBEN COUNTY NY SWWD TO COLUMBIANA COUNTY OH...BECOMING MORE BKN SWWD OVER SERN OH. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES MOVING EWD 40-50 KT...WITH LOCAL VARIATIONS AS COLD-POOL SURGES OCCUR...AND WILL MOVE INTO FAVORABLY UNSTABLE/BUOYANT AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN PA AND EVENTUALLY EWD TO SRN NEW ENGLAND. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WHILE CINH INCREASES WITH EWD EXTENT...PER 18Z RAOBS. HOWEVER...STG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING IS FCST...WITH LOW-LEVEL WLYS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO CAPE THROUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION/TRANSPORT. AS SUCH...FAVORABLE AIR MASS WILL SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD OVER CT/RI/LONG ISLAND. THIS CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN BENEATH SRN RIM OF STRONGEST MIDLEVEL WINDS...CONTRIBUTING TO EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 40-50 KT. DIFFUSE SFC WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD OVER ERN/NRN PA INTO SERN NY. NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SHOULD CONTINUE...BUT WITH SLGT VEERING IN LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL INVOF WARM FRONT. ..EDWARDS.. 07/26/2012 ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX... PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX... LAT...LON 38798495 39988466 41618313 42337923 42057718 41177637 41467396 42007191 41227146 40737280 40487399 39877405 39337436 38917499 39307537 39727589 39497809 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 New mesoscale discussion for our area sounds about as promising as you'll ever read. Looks like we're in the path of a progressive derecho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 MD issued for NYC area finally: http://www.spc.noaa..../md/md1608.html MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1608 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0237 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OH...NERN KY...WV...PA...SERN NY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...NJ. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 524... VALID 261937Z - 262130Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 524 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...CONTINUE WW ALONG/AHEAD OF STG-SVR TSTMS NOW OVER NRN/WRN PORTIONS. NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON...DOWNSHEAR FOR ERN PA EWD TOWARD SWRN NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND INCLUDING NYC METRO AREA. DISCUSSION...INCREASINGLY WELL-ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE...WITH EMBEDDED BOW/LEWP SEGMENTS...WAS EVIDENT AT 1930Z FROM STEUBEN COUNTY NY SWWD TO COLUMBIANA COUNTY OH...BECOMING MORE BKN SWWD OVER SERN OH. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES MOVING EWD 40-50 KT...WITH LOCAL VARIATIONS AS COLD-POOL SURGES OCCUR...AND WILL MOVE INTO FAVORABLY UNSTABLE/BUOYANT AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN PA AND EVENTUALLY EWD TO SRN NEW ENGLAND. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WHILE CINH INCREASES WITH EWD EXTENT...PER 18Z RAOBS. HOWEVER...STG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING IS FCST...WITH LOW-LEVEL WLYS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO CAPE THROUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION/TRANSPORT. AS SUCH...FAVORABLE AIR MASS WILL SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD OVER CT/RI/LONG ISLAND. THIS CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN BENEATH SRN RIM OF STRONGEST MIDLEVEL WINDS...CONTRIBUTING TO EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 40-50 KT. DIFFUSE SFC WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD OVER ERN/NRN PA INTO SERN NY. NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SHOULD CONTINUE...BUT WITH SLGT VEERING IN LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL INVOF WARM FRONT. ..EDWARDS.. 07/26/2012 ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX... PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 TOR heading towards Elmira Impressive sig indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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