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July 26, 2012 Severe Weather Potential


earthlight

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Someone had mentioned a kPIT sounding going up around 18z...i saw 12z, that was the impressive sounding i was referring to

Ah, 12z was impressive, and that environment is advecting eastbound. Finally cleared out up to 86/74.

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Another tornado warned cell

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA

251 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

EAST CENTRAL MCKEAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

WESTERN POTTER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT

* AT 247 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE STORM

CONTAINING THE POSSIBLE TORNADO WAS NEAR CYCLONE...MOVING EAST AT

45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...

CROSBY...

PORT ALLEGANY...

ROULETTE...

COUDERSPORT...

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Another tornado warned cell

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA

251 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

EAST CENTRAL MCKEAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

WESTERN POTTER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT

* AT 247 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE STORM

CONTAINING THE POSSIBLE TORNADO WAS NEAR CYCLONE...MOVING EAST AT

45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...

CROSBY...

PORT ALLEGANY...

ROULETTE...

COUDERSPORT...

Irony...

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There will be a few reports of overturned horse drawn carrages this afternoon in amishland - here is another radar - you can actually see the wind with this

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=PBZ&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

Darn Amish.

There's probably some more damage than being reported in this line.

LGHT_REG_NEWENGLAND_ANI.gif

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a whole boatload of 18z soundings just came in...

OKX.gif

some work to do out on Long Island, not surprisingly

The upton sounding really is useless right now. Warm front isn't even totally through there yet and our storm environment is advecting in from the PIT area as you say.

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I know it's very early and people are going to jump all over me but I just want peoples opions if you look at the line in western pa and follow it se it's going to miss the nyc metro are to the South just like what happend a couple of Weeks ago... Is it likely to expand North as it gets closer??

It's not going to miss the NYC metro area. Isotherm just made some good reasons why its not.

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Looks like discrete cells are trying to pop ahead of the line in Central PA.

I was hearing earlier that the outflow boundry from this morning was still hung up over PA/NJ. I wonder if that will increase our chances of seeing something discrete. It was mentioned that it could aid in tornadic activity.

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I know the line will make to the coast but if you follow that line it will miss the NYC metro area to the South and hit the jersy shore just like what happend a couple of Weeks ago line was in the same place and it moved se and just missed NYC and the island to the soith

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I was hearing earlier that the outflow boundry from this morning was still hung up over PA/NJ. I wonder if that will increase our chances of seeing something discrete. It was mentioned that it could aid in tornadic activity.

You'll get a local increase in LL shear, which should help in tornadogenesis, although we need the discrete supercells before that.

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I know the line will make to the coast but if you follow that line it will miss the NYC metro area to the South and hit the jersy shore just like what happend a couple of Weeks ago line was in the same place and it moved se and just missed NYC and the island to the soith

Your trying to extrapolate a line that is hours away...and didn't account for any northern development?

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I know the line will make to the coast but if you follow that line it will miss the NYC metro area to the South and hit the jersy shore just like what happend a couple of Weeks ago line was in the same place and it moved se and just missed NYC and the island to the soith

You should read more and post less.

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I know the line will make to the coast but if you follow that line it will miss the NYC metro area to the South and hit the jersy shore just like what happend a couple of Weeks ago line was in the same place and it moved se and just missed NYC and the island to the soith

Rule of thumb is a derecho likes to ride the 582dm. What happened a couple weeks ago was the 582dm was to our south hence why it moved further south. Thats one factor that caused that to happen

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SVR WX STATEMENT

.. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... AND IS ON TRACK TO ENTER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE... AND ARE NOT LIKELY TO WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA.

THIS LINE WILL FIRST ENTER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY... NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... AND NEW YORK CITY BETWEEN 5 PM AND 6 PM... AND WILL MOVE EAST INTO CONNECTICUT AND LONG ISLAND BETWEEN 7 PM AND 8 PM. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS OVER 58 MPH AND HAIL OVER 1 INCH IN DIAMETER. FREQUENT AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. TORRENTIAL RAIN WITH RATES BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR IS LIKELY... POSSIBLY PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE AREA. ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

PLEASE STAY ADVISED FOR WARNINGS THAT WILL BE ISSUED.

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