dbc Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Check out the soundings between 21z and 00Z from this mornings runs, the CAPE is going to explode, its a whole new airmass coming in. Noreaster27 needs to go. Whatever, let him stay, he is good comic relief. Message Boards of the past that many of us were a part of always had members who were there specifically for comic relief. Anyone remember blizzard22 and HOTMAIL? Lol, sorry Wright Weather flashback. Meanwhile we are baking outside right now and have been for a couple hours now. Dews are up, the atmosphere is getting ripe for T-storm action and maybe some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Tornado Warning TORNADO WARNING PAC031-053-065-121-261915- /O.NEW.KPBZ.TO.W.0007.120726T1823Z-120726T1915Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 223 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN CLARION COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... SOUTHERN FOREST COUNTY IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA... NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... SOUTHERN VENANGO COUNTY IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA... * UNTIL 315 PM EDT * AT 221 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR KENNERDELL...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO KENNERDELL... FRANKLIN... CLINTONVILLE... EMLENTON... SENECA... VAN... KNOX... FRYBURG... CLARION... LIMESTONE... COOK FOREST STATE PARK... SUMMERVILLE... THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAY... I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 32 AND 90. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...EVACUATE IT AND GET INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN MARYLAND AND EAST CENTRAL OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE. 1-877-633-6772. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Skies are almost clear here now. Temps seem to be rising fast and the air is suddenly feeling very thick agreed..same here in Warren off of 78..just left the bar and the sun is shining in full force Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 ... the NAM is 5-10 degrees too warm with temps right now and therefore too high with CAPE. ...not just what the NAM or WRF or HRRRR say. A juicy contradiction there. Speaking of juicy... With 50 knots of bulk shear and these insane Derecho params, I wouldn't be surprised if this became the main story today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Central PA is around 90/70 last update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The CAPE is increasing rapidly along the I-95 between BOS to DCA and the CIN is dropping like a rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I wish billwx (forecaster at Upton) would give us some info on what's going on over there. It is a little odd to not have some status update in the form of a MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I wanted to talk about current conditions vs what the models had at this time, sorry I will stop. But you refuse to acknowledge all of the great info being advertised here by trained Mets and otherwise, suggesting the positives of what is occurring and how things are very likely going to improve ahead of the line...sorry if im making assumptions that you would realize these things, but isnt it glaringly obvious that mother nature is about to put on a show for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I think Uptons call for storms this afternoon is not going to work out - everything should be pushed back a few hours till after 5 PM at least - I would suspect SPC issues a watch for the area as soon as they see the T-storms start developing out in PA and moving east I would think the watch is issued after 3PM some time and starts about 5 PM - 7PM and runs till about 11 PM - 1 AM what does everyone else think ? I still am going with what I posted a couple hours ago - prime time here will be 7 - 9 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Central PA is around 90/70 last update. temps pushing into the low 90s throughout NJ - with easily about 2 horus of sun still left for more wamring. NJ on east. Looks to be an intersting afternoon and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Getting juicy out there, dp's are hanging around 70 as well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 3 hour sfc cape change... what is everyone worried about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 There's also some very nice Downdraft CAPE advecting into CPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Only a couple folks worried also out in PA the line is forming and developing south of the original http://www.wunderground.com/radar/mixedcomposite.asp?region=b5&size=2x&type=loop&MR=1 3 hour sfc cape change... what is everyone worried about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 But you refuse to acknowledge all of the great info being advertised here by trained Mets and otherwise, suggesting the positives of what is occurring and how things are very likely going to improve ahead of the line...sorry if im making assumptions that you would realize these things, but isnt it glaringly obvious that mother nature is about to put on a show for us? yes the atmosphere is improving as we speak over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Hmm...I wonder where the warm sector is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 3 hour sfc cape change... what is everyone worried about? One person, a known troll, brought up the cape, everyone else noted how it was always progged to jump rapidly as the afternoon progressed along with the weakening CIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 When will we get a kPIT sounding in? By far the best looking sounding from this morning...and it would appear that airmass has advected east into central PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Hmm...I wonder where the warm sector is. You can draw the sfc warm front along that thin layer of clouds along a Port Jervis-NYC line. Cloud tops cooling rapidly in W PA. Big time convective explosion ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Upton .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... -- Changed Discussion -- AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST DEEPENS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE AREA IS WARM SECTORED AND WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING RAPID WARMING IS EXPECTED. EXPECT RAPID DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON AS IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY...WITH CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 3000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR UP TO 40 KT. GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT THE MAIN THREAT OF STORMS WILL OCCUR AFTER 20Z...AND LAST THROUGH 04Z-05Z. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MENTION POSSIBILITY WITH MAINLY THREATS DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...AS LINES AND CLUSTERS OF STORMS DEVELOP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 When will we get a kPIT sounding in? By far the best looking sounding from this morning...and it would appear that airmass has advected east into central PA current or from 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Smoke is in Scranton right now, should be in a good position for possible discrete cells if they do form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 You can draw the sfc warm front along that thin layer of clouds along a Port Jervis-NYC line. Cloud tops cooling rapidly in W PA. Big time convective explosion ongoing. Yeah, I just love how pronounced that thing is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I'm thinking we are going to be waiting awhile for that watch. The storms are still well over a hundred miles away and it doesn't appear that we will have anything going on before then. This is the most populated area of the country and they are going to be waiting until they are absolutlely sure before they do anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Radar tops of 55-60 thousand feet now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockawayRowdies Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Radar looks nice.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 check out the thickening of the line of storms in Western PA. They are in a prime environment right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 current or from 12z? Someone had mentioned a kPIT sounding going up around 18z...i saw 12z, that was the impressive sounding i was referring to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I know it's very early and people are going to jump all over me but I just want peoples opions if you look at the line in western pa and follow it se it's going to miss the nyc metro are to the South just like what happend a couple of Weeks ago... Is it likely to expand North as it gets closer?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Convection maintenance to the coast shouldn't be much of a problem with bulk shear values still around 40 kts through 03z-06z and instability parameters not too shabby with 2000-2500 J/KG of CAPE stretching up thru NJ as far north as NYC/LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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