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July 26, 2012 Severe Weather Potential


earthlight

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http://www.spc.noaa....f?1343325635650

You think this looks good for our area?

a) wait til 18z map comes out

B) please look at the satellite before you post about it, because it's actually clear just about everywhere and looks favorable

c) there is no doubt in my mind higher cape will be realized for the area in a matter of a couple hours with the sw winds advecting in high dews/heat

d) i suspect the CIN may be a signal of that cap the nam showed in the 900-600 layer..and shence steeper lapse rates in that vicinity (preventing cu's and storms firing up ahead of the main line too).

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a) wait til 18z map comes out

B) please look at the satellite before you post about it, because it's actually clear just about everywhere and looks favorable

c) there is no doubt in my mind higher cape will be realized for the area in a matter of a couple hours with the sw winds advecting in high dews/heat

d) i suspect the CIN may be a signal of that cap the nam showed in the 900-600 layer..and shence steeper lapse rates in that vicinity (preventing cu's and storms firing up ahead of the main line too).

of course I think higher CAPE will be realized but I am concerned about how little we currently have, the NAM is 5-10 degrees too warm with temps right now and therefore too high with CAPE.

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of course I think higher CAPE will be realized but I am concerned about how little we currently have, the NAM is 5-10 degrees too warm with temps right now and therefore too high with CAPE.

Then stop posting this nonsense and cluttering up the thread, take it to banter if you must.

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Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

Mod (40%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

Low (20%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

High (80%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Mod (50%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

Mod (40%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Mod (30%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (90%)

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Apparently nobody cares. Because I said as much and my post got deleted.

You have to blend it in with a graphic. :whistle:

--------

The "new" Conditional Tor Prop is maximized to the south of the developing line. That region must be watched as any discrete cells may take advantage of the shear and exsplosive enviorment.

condtor.png

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Would love to be a fly on the wall right now, probably trying to decide between tornado and SVR watch. They could have easily included us in the Tornado Watch.

I was just thinking about that. They may try and put us under a strong prob Severe Thunderstorm watch now that they have the maximum tornado potential area mostly covered.

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