Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 http://www.spc.noaa....f?1343325635650 You think this looks good for our area? NWS and SPC was calling for 3 - 4k of CAPE this afternoon and we dont even have 1,000 right now with major CIN over the area. Please learn how to use the meso-analysis page. RAP/SPC adjusted forecasted SBCAPE for 4 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 http://www.spc.noaa....f?1343325635650 You think this looks good for our area? a) wait til 18z map comes out please look at the satellite before you post about it, because it's actually clear just about everywhere and looks favorable c) there is no doubt in my mind higher cape will be realized for the area in a matter of a couple hours with the sw winds advecting in high dews/heat d) i suspect the CIN may be a signal of that cap the nam showed in the 900-600 layer..and shence steeper lapse rates in that vicinity (preventing cu's and storms firing up ahead of the main line too). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Tornado watch just issued Northwest of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Really warm in Staten Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Any confirmed tornadic/large hail reports out of that cell in Western PA yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Check out the soundings between 21z and 00Z from this mornings runs, the CAPE is going to explode, its a whole new airmass coming in. Noreaster27 needs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 a) wait til 18z map comes out please look at the satellite before you post about it, because it's actually clear just about everywhere and looks favorable c) there is no doubt in my mind higher cape will be realized for the area in a matter of a couple hours with the sw winds advecting in high dews/heat d) i suspect the CIN may be a signal of that cap the nam showed in the 900-600 layer..and shence steeper lapse rates in that vicinity (preventing cu's and storms firing up ahead of the main line too). of course I think higher CAPE will be realized but I am concerned about how little we currently have, the NAM is 5-10 degrees too warm with temps right now and therefore too high with CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Honestly, the constant negativity needs to be stopped either by the poster or a mod. Things look pretty damn good right now. I mean an exsplosive area of convection moving into 4500j/kg2 of SBCAPE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 of course I think higher CAPE will be realized but I am concerned about how little we currently have, the NAM is 5-10 degrees too warm with temps right now and therefore too high with CAPE. Then stop posting this nonsense and cluttering up the thread, take it to banter if you must. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Tornado Watch north of area now. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ062&warncounty=NYC105&firewxzone=NYZ062&local_place1=&product1=Tornado+Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 It's 86 now so anyone still complaining about the temps ought to go sit outside for an hour or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Check out the soundings between 21z and 00Z from this mornings runs, the CAPE is going to explode, its a whole new airmass coming in. Noreaster27 needs to go. Awful in winter, awful in summer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 83.8 IMBY. Warming up quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The SPC will probably take longer to issue a watch for the NYC/PHL area to coordinate with the local offices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Cold pool should develop w/ the complex in NW PA and become a widespread wind damage threat downstream. Up to 90.2/73 and mostly sunny here in Monmouth County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Tornadoes Probability of 2 or more tornadoes Mod (40%) Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes Low (20%) Wind Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (80%) Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots Mod (50%) Hail Probability of 10 or more severe hail events Mod (40%) Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches Mod (30%) Combined Severe Hail/Wind Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (90%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 86/72 up this way... Gonna be real interesting up this way later this afternoon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The SPC will probably take longer to issue a watch for the NYC/PHL area to coordinate with the local offices. Would love to be a fly on the wall right now, probably trying to decide between tornado and SVR watch. They could have easily included us in the Tornado Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 In the latest SPC OBS, the CIN seems to be fading steadily and that's mainly because of the increasing Southwesterly winds of the passing Warm Front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 guys, this is the severe weather thread...we are allowed to talk about current parameters and not just what the NAM or WRF or HRRRR say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 of course I think higher CAPE will be realized but I am concerned about how little we currently have, the NAM is 5-10 degrees too warm with temps right now and therefore too high with CAPE. then why are you concerned about now, and what is the point of all of this??? Please, i must know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Apparently nobody cares. Because I said as much and my post got deleted. You have to blend it in with a graphic. -------- The "new" Conditional Tor Prop is maximized to the south of the developing line. That region must be watched as any discrete cells may take advantage of the shear and exsplosive enviorment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Incredible probabilities for significant severe over central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 guys, this is the severe weather thread...we are allowed to talk about current parameters and not just what the NAM or WRF or HRRRR say. Can you not see the massive squall line currently moving through NW PA and SW NY headed in this general direction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Latest Rap has the heaviest stuff right over NYC again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 then why are you concerned about now, and what is the point of all of this??? Please, i must know I wanted to talk about current conditions vs what the models had at this time, sorry I will stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The SPC will probably take longer to issue a watch for the NYC/PHL area to coordinate with the local offices. Agreed, but it's weird that they don't at least have a meso discussion out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Would love to be a fly on the wall right now, probably trying to decide between tornado and SVR watch. They could have easily included us in the Tornado Watch. I was just thinking about that. They may try and put us under a strong prob Severe Thunderstorm watch now that they have the maximum tornado potential area mostly covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Incredible probabilities for significant severe over central PA. 120k Craven in the NE? Jesus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwarn Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Reports of trees and wires downed in NW PA. Current radar from out of that area: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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