andyhb Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 if they didn't issue one for dc in june, why issue one now? It should have been then as well, considering the reports and history of that MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 It should have been then as well, considering the reports and history of that MCS. I would argue they are more likely to issue one given the post mortum from that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 You can tell just how an impressive setup we are dealing with. That cell that formed south of the lakes literally starting rotating as soon as it formed. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The line over Western PA/NY may become a derecho and arrive here by 7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I think we get a tornado watch instead, that cell in western PA waisted little time in going tornadic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 We really need you to zip it with these negative nancy comments, that are frankly unwarranted in my opinion looking at everything I agree he said the same thing just a half hour ago. Chill out Noreaster27 and let things evolve, all the signs look favorable for quite an event later on. Its only 130pm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN ASHTABULA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OHIO... NORTHEASTERN TRUMBULL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OHIO... SOUTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA... * UNTIL 145 PM EDT * AT 118 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF KINSMAN...OR 16 MILES SOUTH OF JEFFERSON...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MEADVILLE...KINSMAN...ANDOVER...HARTSTOWN...GENEVA...CONNEAUT LAKE AND COCHRANTON. * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHERN ASHTABULA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OHIO NORTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ERIE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA * UNTIL 215 PM EDT * AT 106 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ERIE TO 6 MILES NORTH OF JEFFERSON...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... ALBION... WATERFORD... EDINBORO... UNION CITY... CAMBRIDGE SPRINGS... CORRY... SPARTANSBURG... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 We really need more clearing or the instability forecasts are going to really fall short. Those storms close to the PA/NY border are firing in 1000-1500 j/kg mucape. Most of NJ is already there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Those storms close to the PA/NY border are firing in 1000-1500 j/kg mucape. Most of NJ is already there. And as the cape continues to rise those storms in PA will rapidly expand and intensiify...they will are heading into quite an unstable environment over the next several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Normally just at 0 and 12Z, but in the Plains, anyway, on expected active tornado days, one will see an 18Z or 19Z sounding. The met department at Texas A&M will release a balloon at CLL, which is not a normal sounding location. Not shared with the public via the SPC website, but is shared with HGX forecast office. Will sometimes see OUN/FWD and other Plains office's mention an extra balloon release. Might be worth checking local AFDs, I didn't see any mentioned, but it was a curosry check. From Pennsylvania subforum thread. Pittsburgh probably not only office SPC requested an extra sounding from... As per their Fb page, Pittsburgh WFO released a special 18z balloon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 That could be a long track tornado out of that PA cell. Looks incredibly healthy right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 That could be a long track tornado out of that PA cell. Looks incredibly healthy right now. Omg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Very nice couplet on that cell now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 It's already 83F with a Dewpoint of 71F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 first severe watch of the day west of us http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 That tornadic cell is out of the Moderate Risk area also, Yeah yeah I know its just a general area where they believe it will be most active, but still pretty darn impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 It's already 83F with a Dewpoint of 71F. Setting up nicely. Currently 86F with a DP of 73F here in NE NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 It's already 83F with a Dewpoint of 71F. How much sun do you have? Im on the island, and the sun is in and out at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 You can see things coming together quickly on the satellite now also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 524 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 120 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN INDIANA NORTHEAST KENTUCKY WESTERN MARYLAND SOUTHWEST NEW YORK OHIO WESTERN AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA LAKE ERIE EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM UNTIL 1000 PM EDT. HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST OF DAYTON OHIO TO 20 MILES EAST OF WILLIAMSPORT PENNSYLVANIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. DISCUSSION...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF INTENSE AND FAST-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER OH VALLEY...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF NY/PA. HIGH CAPE VALUES COUPLED WITH FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE THE RISK OF RATHER WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG A RETREATING WARM FRONT OVER PARTS OF PA/NY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27040. ...HART Hazard EF2+ Tornadoes Likelihood Very Low 65 kt+ Wind High Severe Hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Very interesting disco from the new MD to our north. DISCUSSION...17Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED WARM FRONT OVER NWRN...CENTRAL AND SERN PA...BECOMING SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE IN THERMAL FIELDS GIVEN STG SFC DIABATIC HEATING OCCURRING ON BOTH SIDES. IN FACT...AIR MASS N OF WARM FRONT HAS BECOME MINIMALLY CAPPED...WITH SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S AND TEMPS LOW 80S F CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE IN 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS SHOULD INCREASE TO 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE BEFORE ARRIVAL OF TSTM BAND. MLCINH WILL ERODE FROM W-E ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR DUE TO COMBINATION OF DIABATIC HEATING AND MOIST ADVECTION...RENDERING AREAS FROM HUDSON VALLEY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND FAVORABLY UNSTABLE PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE ARRIVAL...HOWEVER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MORE STABLE WITH EWD EXTENT FROM THERE. GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR...HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LARGE INVOF SFC WARM FRONT...DESPITE LACK OF APPRECIABLE VEERING WITH HEIGHT. DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AS WELL...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 45-50 KT OVER MOST OF AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Anybody else notice how crazy east those warnings are atm. Warnings already stretch as far east as central PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 How much sun do you have? Im on the island, and the sun is in and out at times. It's still mostly cloudy here. That's pretty impressive for cloudy weather. Anyway, the main contribution to the instability is the SW wind or in other words the "Warm Front". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Hudson and CT river valleys doing what they do.. I see locally backed surface wind barbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1603 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL/ERN NY...WRN NEW ENGLAND...NERN PA. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 261750Z - 261945Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...BAND OF TSTMS INTENSIFYING OVER NRN PORTIONS WW 524...AND MOVING EWD ABOUT 40 KT...WILL CONTINUE TO POSE SVR THREAT FARTHER E ACROSS THIS AREA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND EVEN N OF WARM FRONT AS WELL. MAIN THREAT IS SVR GUSTS...THOUGH SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL ALSO ARE POSSIBLE AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. DISCUSSION...17Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED WARM FRONT OVER NWRN...CENTRAL AND SERN PA...BECOMING SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE IN THERMAL FIELDS GIVEN STG SFC DIABATIC HEATING OCCURRING ON BOTH SIDES. IN FACT...AIR MASS N OF WARM FRONT HAS BECOME MINIMALLY CAPPED...WITH SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S AND TEMPS LOW 80S F CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE IN 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS SHOULD INCREASE TO 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE BEFORE ARRIVAL OF TSTM BAND. MLCINH WILL ERODE FROM W-E ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR DUE TO COMBINATION OF DIABATIC HEATING AND MOIST ADVECTION...RENDERING AREAS FROM HUDSON VALLEY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND FAVORABLY UNSTABLE PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE ARRIVAL...HOWEVER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MORE STABLE WITH EWD EXTENT FROM THERE. GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR...HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LARGE INVOF SFC WARM FRONT...DESPITE LACK OF APPRECIABLE VEERING WITH HEIGHT. DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AS WELL...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 45-50 KT OVER MOST OF AREA. ..EDWARDS/HART.. 07/26/2012 ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The NYC area will remain capped and cloud free for a few more hours. Maximum destabilization ahead... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 It's still mostly cloudy here. That's pretty impressive for cloudy weather. Anyway, the main contribution to the instability is the SW wind or in other words the "Warm Front". Yup still mostly cloudy here as well, but based upon that image above we should go mostly sunny pretty soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 It's still mostly cloudy here. That's pretty impressive for cloudy weather. Anyway, the main contribution to the instability is the SW wind or in other words the "Warm Front". Ok because im at 83 with the same conditions. Very sultry out too with dp of 74. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 Skies are almost clear here now. Temps seem to be rising fast and the air is suddenly feeling very thick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 You can see things coming together quickly on the satellite now also. Clearing in the cloud cover not going too bad... a bit delayed compared to what the NAM had, I doubt we're getting much above 95 degrees, if even that at this rate, but 90+ degrees is still easily within reach. The cloud line around I-80 is still pushing ENE, should be moving through NYC/N NJ within the next 1/2 hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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