stormwarn Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Why is everyone looking at models and not the current soundings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I think Uptons call for storms this afternoon is not going to work out - everything should be pushed back a few hours till after 5 PM at least - I would suspect SPC issues a watch for the area as soon as they see the T-storms start developing out in PA and moving east I would think the watch is issued after 3PM some time and starts about 5 PM - 7PM and runs till about 11 PM - 1 AM what does everyone else think ? That seems fairly reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Agreed. Im not saying temps will bust overall. Just that the 18z temps, look like a big bust by the NAM. Yeah, Newark is at 85 now so with more sun next few hours I think 93-95 by 4-5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Mesoscale Discussion 1600 < Previous MD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1600 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT THU JUL 26 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN INDIANA...OH...NRN KY...NRN PANHANDLE OF WV...WRN/NRN PA...WRN NY. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 261626Z - 261830Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...RAPID DEVELOPMENT...INTENSIFICATION AND UPSCALE GROWTH OF TSTMS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z OVER WRN/NRN PARTS OF THIS DISCUSSION AREA...INVOF ANY OF SEVERAL BOUNDARIES DESCRIBED BELOW. DAMAGING GUSTS ARE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH OTHER SVR MODES ARE POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...15Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...AND CORRESPONDING TO DIFFUSE ERN FRINGE OF THICKER CLOUD COVER ON VIS IMAGERY. THIS ZONE WAS LOCATED FROM SRN IL AND SWRN INDIANA NEWD OVER W-CENTRAL/NRN OH...THEN ENEWD OVER NWRN PA...WHERE IT INTERSECTED WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD OVER S-CENTRAL PA. WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN PA THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING ZONE WILL MOVE LITTLE AS CLOUDS ERODE WITH EWD EXTENT BUT CONTINUE TO ADVECT OVER AREA FROM W. VIS IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS MCV MOVING ENEWD ABOUT 35 KT OVER W-CENTRAL IL...ON TRACK TO REACH NRN INDIANA AROUND 22Z...AND PRECEDED BY MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENTS TO DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND MIDLEVEL ASCENT. GRAVITY WAVE WAS EVIDENT MOVING SEWD OVER SWRN PA...OH/WV BORDER AND CENTRAL KY...BEHIND WHICH STRONGEST SFC HEATING IS OCCURRING FROM NERN OH TO WRN KY. IN LOW LEVELS...CINH EVIDENT IN 12Z PBZ/ILN RAOBS IS BEING REMOVED QUICKLY BY STG DIABATIC HEATING AND BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING...BELOW PLUME OF ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR THAT CONTRIBUTES STEEP LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY 70S F...NET RESULT WILL BE PRECONVECTIVE MLCAPE STRENGTHENING TO 3500-5000 J/KG RANGE OVER BROAD SWATH OF WARM SECTOR...BETWEEN WARM FRONT AND DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING ZONE. SUCH STG-EXTREME BUOYANCY ATOP WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS...AMIDST NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL/WLY-WSWLY DEEP-LAYER WINDS...SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE FORWARD-PROPAGATIONAL TSTM CLUSTERS WITH ORGANIZED/AGGREGATE COLD POOLS ENHANCING SVR WIND RISK. THIS MAY OCCUR WITH DEVELOPMENT NOW OVER LE AS IT ENCOUNTERS DESTABILIZING AIR MASS NEAR WARM FRONT AND SRN-SHORE LAKE BREEZE...AS WELL AS SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT INVOF DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING ZONE AND AHEAD OF MCV OVER PORTIONS INDIANA/OH. EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASES WITH NEWD EXTENT TOWARD AND OVER WARM FRONT...VALUES REACHING 40-50 KT IN NWRN PA WHERE EFFECTIVE SRH ALSO IS MAXIMIZED. THIS SUGGESTS RELATIVE MAX IN SUPERCELL/TORNADO RISK ALSO MAY EXIST INVOF WARM FRONT...SHIFTING EWD/NEWD WITH THAT BOUNDARY. ..EDWARDS/HART.. 07/26/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Why is everyone looking at models and not the current soundings? Because the sounding was taken at 8AM and a lot has changed since then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 There can be a silver lining on cooler temps, especially if near the effective warm front or an old outflow boundary, (within limits, of course) lower cloud bases. Storms a week ago near Boston got most active crossing the sea breeze boundary, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Speaking of soundings, with a mod risk, anyone know if SPC has requested any 18Z balloon releases? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxnyc Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Two years ago we had a straight line winds of 100 mph just 10 miles away in Harris that's in the western part of Sullivan county, many trees came clean out with their roots , I hope things are interesting but not that wild this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwarn Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Because the sounding was taken at 8AM and a lot has changed since then? Oh ok thanks.I would have thought, due to the severe portential, soundings would have been taken a bit more often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Been noticing the satellite images updating on a 5-10 minute quicker interval recently. http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Oh ok thanks.I would have thought, due to the severe portential, soundings would have been taken a bit more often. Yeah, they sometimes do that but I haven't heard of any plans for any special launches. Would be nice.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Because the sounding was taken at 8AM and a lot has changed since then? Would love an actual 18z sounding out of AVP. You got an connections? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 GOES is in RSO for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Would love an actual 18z sounding out of AVP. You got an connections? I wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Lord that is huge svr watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 First watch of the day up (Svr Thunderstorm) well to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Oh ok thanks.I would have thought, due to the severe portential, soundings would have been taken a bit more often. Normally just at 0 and 12Z, but in the Plains, anyway, on expected active tornado days, one will see an 18Z or 19Z sounding. The met department at Texas A&M will release a balloon at CLL, which is not a normal sounding location. Not shared with the public via the SPC website, but is shared with HGX forecast office. Will sometimes see OUN/FWD and other Plains office's mention an extra balloon release. Might be worth checking local AFDs, I didn't see any mentioned, but it was a curosry check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 Storms just came off Lake Eerie tracking towards Northern PA. Severe and tornado warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Tornadoes Probability of 2 or more tornadoes Low (20%) Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes Low (5%) Wind Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (>95%) Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots High (70%) Hail Probability of 10 or more severe hail events Mod (40%) Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches Low (20%) Combined Severe Hail/Wind Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I wish. Come on, you did that big severe weather internship right? I know you have a secret phone number or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 We really need more clearing or the instability forecasts are going to really fall short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 We're going to mix to highs in the mid 90s regardless of temps right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Was 72 when storms came through and now up to 82 with sunshine. I think we're warming up nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 That watch has a 90% risk of 10 or more severe wind reports, and a 70% risk of a report greater than 75MPH. Not too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 High for 65KT+ wind makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Given the high probs, I'm a bit surprised that isn't a PDS Svr Watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Beautiful cell going in to NE PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Given the high probs, I'm a bit surprised that isn't a PDS Svr Watch... if they didn't issue one for dc in june, why issue one now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The 1998 Derecho used as a comparison took about 6 hours to get to the nyc metro area once it formed and moved to NW PA - and looking at radars if one does form it will be in that same general area NW PA http://www.spc.noaa....ep71998page.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 We really need more clearing or the instability forecasts are going to really fall short. We really need you to zip it with these negative nancy comments, that are frankly unwarranted in my opinion looking at everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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