Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Very impressive run of the SPC wrf. Sent from my 4G 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 What time should the line make it to the city? All indications are between 7pm to 11pm. Depends on when the line forms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 1630Z SPC Outlook keeps everything pretty much the same. Maybe a very slight shift SE? If that. ...INDIANA NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND... STRONG HEATING WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO INITIATE FROM WRN PA SWWD ACROSS OH AND IND BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. INITIATION WILL FURTHER BE ENHANCED BY SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG...ALONG WITH 40+ KT LOW TO MIDLEVEL MEAN WINDS...SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH OF AND MERGING OF DEVELOPING STORM CELLS INTO LINES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. AS THESE STORMS CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE PA/NEW ENGLAND SFC BOUNDARIES...THEY MAY EXHIBIT ROTATION WITH PARTICULARLY DAMAGING SWATHS OF WINDS ESPECIALLY WITH ANY BOWHEAD/MESO-LOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 We really need some sun, CAPE is pathetic right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 1630Z SPC Outlook keeps everything pretty much the same. Maybe a very slight shift SE? If that. ...INDIANA NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND... STRONG HEATING WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO INITIATE FROM WRN PA SWWD ACROSS OH AND IND BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. INITIATION WILL FURTHER BE ENHANCED BY SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG...ALONG WITH 40+ KT LOW TO MIDLEVEL MEAN WINDS...SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH OF AND MERGING OF DEVELOPING STORM CELLS INTO LINES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. AS THESE STORMS CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE PA/NEW ENGLAND SFC BOUNDARIES...THEY MAY EXHIBIT ROTATION WITH PARTICULARLY DAMAGING SWATHS OF WINDS ESPECIALLY WITH ANY BOWHEAD/MESO-LOW. Looks like the 5% tornado risk is larger and expanded westward further into PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 We really need some sun, CAPE is pathetic right now. It's only 12:40... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 It's only 12:40... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 We really need some sun, CAPE is pathetic right now. Like that matters when the storms are still hundreds of miles away? CAPE will expand east well before the storms reach this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 We really need some sun, CAPE is pathetic right now. Your always just a big ray of sunshine aren't you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Both the 12z ARW and NMM are finally picking up the tstorm line for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The hotspots should probably make it to around 90 degrees around 2-3 pm with low 70's dews. Temps probably keep rising through 21z or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Agree a textbook derecheo is unlikely but look for some wind across the MDT risk area. I’d want to see the kind of instability forecast down in the Mid Atlantic. However the dynamics are up in Ohio/PA and later into the Tri-State. Southern Ohio to central PA might have the extreme instability, but the morning rain deludes extreme instability toward the Tri-State. Fortunately for storm lovers the atmosphere will become unstable again across the Tri-State, just not extreme, and smaller scale features may offer wind potential for the area. It is just potential right now as of 12:30. Winds are veering well north into New England, but visible satellite hints the outflow boundary is still down in eastern PA and central NJ thanks to morning rain. Models forecast winds trying to back a bit again from the immediate Tri-State into southern New England late this afternoon as the upper-level wave approaches. If some thunderstorms can become line-segments ahead of the main line, perhaps in southern New York and northern New Jersey, the lingering outflow boundary could enhance them. Like the post leaning toward book-end and/or LEWPs over classic supercells. How often does a nice outflow boundary retreat in the Northeast without new storms firing before Noon? Retreating outflow is one of my favorite setups in the Plains. Well, this is New York City. But last week proved NYC still knows how to party! Good luck and stay safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 NAM is going to be way off from its predicted highs yesterday...the heat warnings for alot of NJ and PA will not come close to verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxnyc Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I drove from Lakewood nj back up to fallsburg ny, I kept missing the line of thunderstorms that dove through this morning. But I'm up here now and will report on anything I see up here, it's sunny,humid and 75f. Now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 NAM is going to be way off from its predicted highs yesterday...the heat warnings for alot of NJ and PA will not come close to verifying. Even today's 12z run then. Today's run has 94 degrees in NYC by 2pm and a high of 97 by 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Even today's 12z run then. Today's run has 94 degrees in NYC by 2pm and a high of 97 by 5pm. that's been a theme the whole summer. Way off. 90 will be a stretch for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 85/71 at Newark at 12:51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Erosion of cloud cover is working its way east. The area should be predominantly sunny within the next hour and we should destabilize rapidly in the following hours well into the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Even today's 12z run then. Today's run has 94 degrees in NYC by 2pm and a high of 97 by 5pm. Unless we drastically warm in the next hour, NAM will severely bust on temps. 1pm temps: LGA: 82 NYC: 80 JFK: 81 EWR: 85 TEB: 80 vs. today's 12z NAM for 1 hour from now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Hopefully this bust on temperature won't translate into a bust on severe weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 wonder how that factors into the storm potential ?(Temps being 10-15 degrees COOLER than forecast) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Unless we drastically warm in the next hour, NAM will severely bust on temps. 1pm temps: LGA: 82 NYC: 80 JFK: 81 EWR: 85 TEB: 80 vs. today's 12z NAM for 1 hour from now: We still have until 4-5 pm to warm so the ultimate highs may be delayed by an hour or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I think Uptons call for storms this afternoon is not going to work out - everything should be pushed back a few hours till after 5 PM at least - I would suspect SPC issues a watch for the area as soon as they see the T-storms start developing out in PA and moving east I would think the watch is issued after 3PM some time and starts about 5 PM - 7PM and runs till about 11 PM - 1 AM what does everyone else think ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 wonder how that factors into the storm potential ?(Temps being 10-15 degrees COOLER than forecast) Less instability, but also lower temp/dew spreads (more favorable for tornadoes). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 wonder how that factors into the storm potential ?(Temps being 10-15 degrees COOLER than forecast) Temps will soar over the next several hours. Low 90s throughout our area will be common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Hopefully this bust on temperature won't translate into a bust on severe weather Doubt it. Just a little delayed with the sun. When it comes out, temps will probably shoot up pretty fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 We still have until 4-5 pm to warm so the ultimate highs may be delayed by an hour or two. Agreed. Im not saying temps will bust overall. Just that the 18z temps, look like a big bust by the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 40kts of effective shear sitting over the region right now. Runs all the way back to Western PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.