Ian Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I'm sure it will happen someday, whether it is during our lifetimes (lol) is another story... i dunno how you'd get that setup over the northeast but maybe after a few hundred yrs of climate change... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 i called it a week out. im the new dt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 there's going to be a corridor of very high cape between the warm front and too much mixing with the EML... that's who will get nailed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 i called it a week out. im the new dt. https://twitter.com/...151570105049088 Nice tweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NY/PA AND WRN VT/MA. THIS AREA LIES TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS PBG 15 S RUT 20 W BAF 15E AVP DUJ ERI. ...UPPER OH VALLEY/ERN GREAT LAKES... A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK APPEARS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF UPSTATE NY AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY. SURFACE BOUNDARY NOW STALLED OVER CENTRAL PA EXPECTED TO SURGE NWD INTO NY SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW VERY MOIST/DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60'S/BOUNDARY LAYER TO SPREAD NWD BENEATH INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE FAIRLY STEEP...ON THE ORDER OF 7.5 DEG C PER KM. WITH 500MB WLY FLOW LIKELY TO BE IN EXCESS OF 60 KNOTS/EXTRAPOLATING CURRENT CONDITIONS OVER WI AND LK MI/...AND SWLY LOW LEVEL JET SPEEDS LIKELY TO INCREASE TO ABOVE 50 KTS /AS GREAT LAKES SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN/...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BOW ECHOS AND SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF WARM FRONT. EXPECT SOME SEVERE WEATHER /LIKELY IN THE FORM OF A DERECHO OR BOW ECHO/ TO BE ON-GOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER SRN LWR MI/NRN OH/SE ONTARIO. THIS ACTIVITY...AND NEW DEVELOPMENT...WILL LIKELY SWEEP E ACROSS NY/NRN PA DURING MAX HEATING TIME...WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. GIVEN WLY FLOW ALOFT...SUPERCELL POTENTIAL AND LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED WHERE CHANNELING FORCES THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO REMAIN SLY ALONG THE HUDSON AND CT RIVER VALLEYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 i dunno how you'd get that setup over the northeast but maybe after a few hundred yrs of climate change... 5/31/85 further east....(that's what I based some of it off of) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Not gonna happen during this meh-tastic severe wx season. I'm waiting for winter. This has actually been a pretty decent summer up and down the East coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 5/31/85 further east....(that's what I based some of it off of) yeah was going to say that's the only event remotely close this far east tho im still not sold it could happen east of the apps. i guess it could.. but.. i wouldnt plan on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 This has actually been a pretty decent summer up and down the East coast. Lots of big hail it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 yeah was going to say that's the only event remotely close this far east tho im still not sold it could happen east of the apps. i guess it could.. but.. i wouldnt plan on it. 1953? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 This has actually been a pretty decent summer up and down the East coast. You're almost never going to get constant mod to high end svr weather in the mid atlantic or northeast. We've been pretty active.. plenty of busts but that comes with the price of admission. This is our best storm year since 08 for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 This has actually been a pretty decent summer up and down the East coast. Not for my area Lots of big hail it seems Did you get any hail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Lots of big hail it seems Since 2008 we've been in like a fairly active "hail period". Now I'm sure increased spotter coverage, awareness, etc has also really helped to draw in more reports and such but we've had multiple events with golf-ball hail or larger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 yeah was going to say that's the only event remotely close this far east tho im still not sold it could happen east of the apps. i guess it could.. but.. i wouldnt plan on it. I wouldn't either...although what happened on 4/27 last year made me rethink some things... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Not for my area Did you get any hail? Not even close. Have not seen any hail in at least a year. Did get rain the last 2 days...ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScituateWX Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Big hail sig N Scituate Mass. Nice storm! To think I was just about to go to bed then I took one last look at RadarScope and saw it developing, glad I stayed up! One of the better storms to move through the area in a while! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 1953? 1953 was a more 6/1/11 type deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 1953? I don't think so. If "SPC" is putting high risk and mentioning violent tornadoes / outbreak you'd be looking at something bigger. tho i honestly skimmed parts of the post so maybe i just focused on a few words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Not even close. Have not seen any hail in at least a year. Did get rain the last 2 days...ftw I have only seen hail once in my life, and it wasn't even in NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 You're almost never going to get constant mod to high end svr weather in the mid atlantic or northeast. We've been pretty active.. plenty of busts but that comes with the price of admission. This is our best storm year since 08 for sure. One reason why it's incredibly difficult to get a high risk here is usually when we get events they don't cover a very large area...for mod/high risks and such you need to obtain a certain number of reports/significant reports and given how small of an area we are it's quite difficult to meet that criteria...only way is if we had a monster derecho which pretty much wiped out trees and caused substantial structural damage across virtually every town in it's path from upstate NY down through SNE. Of course getting the atmospheric conditions/synoptic setup favorable to produce the instability/shear numbers you typically across the Plains during their high risks also is highly difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I don't think so. If "SPC" is putting high risk and mentioning violent tornadoes / outbreak you'd be looking at something bigger. tho i honestly skimmed parts of the post so maybe i just focused on a few words. That's essentially what it revolved around lol, multiple long-lived supercells producing intense/damaging tornadoes in the northeast...it might be more unlikely than another Super Outbreak in the next few years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I wouldn't either...although what happened on 4/27 last year made me rethink some things... I think 4/27s have happened with some frequency in the past. There have been plenty of big outbreaks in those areas.. who knows how well they were documented. In theory anything can happen I suppose--but tornado climo doesn't support it very well east of the Apps and north of the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Of course getting the atmospheric conditions/synoptic setup favorable to produce the instability/shear numbers you typically across the Plains during their high risks also is highly difficult. Yeah, except they usually always get at least one high risk per year out there... (4/14/12, 5/24/11, 5/10/10, 4/26/09, 5/29/08, 5/5/07, etc.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 We average a strong tornado (EF3 and up) in SNE about once every 10 years or so...its definitely not very common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I think 4/27s have happened with some frequency in the past. There have been plenty of big outbreaks in those areas.. who knows how well they were documented. In theory anything can happen I suppose--but tornado climo doesn't support it very well east of the Apps and north of the Carolinas. Yeah I'd have to think the Enigma Outbreak and Palm Sunday 1920 outbreak would be at least along these lines... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I think 4/27s have happened with some frequency in the past. There have been plenty of big outbreaks in those areas.. who knows how well they were documented. In theory anything can happen I suppose--but tornado climo doesn't support it very well east of the Apps and north of the Carolinas. it would have to be a large scale NW flow event with anomalously strong wind fields and an uncontaminated eml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 We average a strong tornado (EF3 and up) in SNE about once every 10 years or so...its definitely not very common. 1981 right over my house...of course it wasnt built yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 One reason why it's incredibly difficult to get a high risk here is usually when we get events they don't cover a very large area...for mod/high risks and such you need to obtain a certain number of reports/significant reports and given how small of an area we are it's quite difficult to meet that criteria...only way is if we had a monster derecho which pretty much wiped out trees and caused substantial structural damage across virtually every town in it's path from upstate NY down through SNE. Of course getting the atmospheric conditions/synoptic setup favorable to produce the instability/shear numbers you typically across the Plains during their high risks also is highly difficult. It's too hard to get all the variables to come together--not to mention the region is entirely removed from some of them except on special occasions and even then it's not quite the same. Early season would seemingly never have the moisture etc needed. Late season would never have the jet configuration. There's probably some theoretical superstorm in prime season but it seems far fetched. New England and surrounds have the best long-term tornado record in the country -- early settlers noted them quite a bit. I think we'd know if there was some epic disaster in the last few hundred years at least, though there are a lot of trees out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 it would have to be a large scale NW flow event with anomalously strong wind fields and an uncontaminated eml Perhaps, although 5/31/85 was a more classic outbreak setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 00z NAM should be coming in as we speak, now that I think about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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