OKpowdah Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 6/6/10 wasn't an epic fail for me! I was right in the middle of that microburst!!!!! I kind of disagree though on the 6/6/10 ordeal...lapse rates that day SUCKED and I don't think they will be as bad Thursday as that day and I think that is something that could be a major difference breaker. I didn't say they were identical haha. Many of the factors that day were positive ... hence the SPC putting up hatched 10% tor over MA and NH and a 90/50 tornado watch. We had absurd low level helicity that day. There was also an EML advecting from Michigan (which was a factor in their outbreak the day before), and we were anticipating better ML lapse rates than we saw on 6/6. As you said, lapse rates turned out horrible, and instability was severely lacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I didn't say they were identical haha. Many of the factors that day were positive ... hence the SPC putting up hatched 10% tor over MA and NH and a 90/50 tornado watch. We had absurd low level helicity that day. There was also an EML advecting from Michigan (which was a factor in their outbreak the day before), and we were anticipating better ML lapse rates than we saw on 6/6. As you said, lapse rates turned out horrible, and instability was severely lacking. ahhh...now I remember... There was little to no Cap that day so we kept generating showers activity early on in the day with isolated t'storms and latent heat release really screwed us over with the lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I'd like to see a stronger velocity in the 0-3km level, but the directional aspect combined with the curve of that sounding are a solid 2 out 3. Agreed. I don't know... that's pretty decent IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I don't know... that's pretty decent IMO. Yeah I agree. If we had stronger velocity in the 0-3 level the top of Kevin's chimney would be sheared into the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I'm in Acushnet and I see frequent flashing in the northern horizon. Even a c2c bolt of lightning. Can it be from the storms passing east of Nahant? Seems rather distant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 6/6/10 had that classic "oh no" feeling in the morning of that threat that we get all too often in SNE severe setups. Locked in with clouds with very slow clearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 6/6/10 had that classic "oh no" feeling in the morning of that threat that we get all too often in SNE severe setups. Locked in with clouds with very slow clearing. Yeah, that event was just not meant to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 If we can keep those llvl winds more southwesterly; given how model progs are for speeds of near 30 knots that I would think would really help to keep the moist air flowing into our region. Given how moisture in the llvls is quite impressive I would think this should win out over drier air attempting to mix down. Yeah that's why I said "in general" when describing it because I also don't think it will be an issue. It can happen though with these low EML advections, especially further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Severe in RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 6/6/10 had that classic "oh no" feeling in the morning of that threat that we get all too often in SNE severe setups. Locked in with clouds with very slow clearing. I remember people discussing the debris that morning, thinking we were cooked Awesome structures out there this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 The timing and strength of the major features were pretty different with that event IIRC...I believe that event had a sub 990mb low near Buffalo around noon on 6/6/10. The surface low is modeled on the NAM to be near Detroit around noon Thursday. The other thing about that event was the height falls and a powerful s/w...nothing modeled is quite that prolific. It really is a shame that set up didn't work out...I haven't gone back and looked at any re-analysis but I can remember it like yesterday. Maybe it might be helpful to not have quite as significant large scale lifting as we had on 6/6/10, maintaining the widespread coverage of clouds and showers. You're right though, the timing of the surface low is slightly later in the day with this event, and there is not nearly as strong of a shortwave involved. I was looking in general at the track of the surface low and impulse, the notably high helicity near the front, and the EML advecting eastward ...tying that into the upstream activity tomorrow over MI ...in comparing 6/6/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 A significant issue with 6/6/10 was the stratiform rain / mid level moisture/clouds that advected in from the Mid Atlantic. This intercepted the prefrontal line of convection using its own secondary/ageostrophic circulation for self preservation. It was early in the day but that feature came with the best wind shear. Once those clouds / moisture came in (ruining the lapse rates), that basically killed the whole ordeal. After the prefrontal trough / best shear, mixing in the BL destroyed any opportunity thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Yeah that's why I said "in general" when describing it because I also don't think it will be an issue. It can happen though with these low EML advections, especially further south. I wouldn't completely mind having that as the only issue though I just hope we are at least capped through much of the morning and into the early afternoon after any MCS goes through so we don't fire crap off too early and have this kill lapse rates as well as limit heating. Something else I was just thinking about is quite often in these setups valley locations will actually hold onto SE winds through much of the day...happened on 6/1/11...this is another reason we want a Cap to help prevent any maritime air sneaking in but could you imagine plastering SE sfc winds on those soundings and how much more helicity there would be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I remember people discussing the debris that morning, thinking we were cooked Awesome structures out there this evening That leftover MCS debris left us with garbage ML lapse rates too which already not supposed to be amazing to start with. The 6/1 event last year was like the opposite feeling...we all felt something really big could happen the night before. I think it was one of the only times we had a severe thread active well past midnight the night before the threat waiting for the models to come out. Once we saw all the clearing the next morning, it was game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Honestly it might be helpful to not have quite as significant large scale lifting as we had on 6/6/10, producing the widespread coverage of clouds and showers. You're right though, the timing of the surface low is slightly later in the day with this event, and there is not nearly as strong of a shortwave involved. I was looking in general at the track of the surface low and impulse, the notably high helicity near the front, and the EML advecting eastward ...tying that into the upstream activity tomorrow over MI ...in comparing 6/6/10. I agree with this. I think it helps that we get the strongest warm advection out of the way in the morning... but keep a fairly strong low level jet and curved hodographs inthe afternoon. I assume we'll see a break in the convection after any morning MCS activity with the subsidence behind the initial complex. My concern would be generating lots of non-severe convection along the warm front during the day effectively limiting surface based destabilization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Minutes after Skywarn secured for the night, Chepacet RI 61 mph, 3/4 hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Clouds weren't an issue in CT 6/6/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 A significant issue with 6/6/10 was the stratiform rain / mid level moisture/clouds that advected in from the Mid Atlantic. This intercepted the prefrontal line of convection using its own secondary/ageostrophic circulation for self preservation. It was early in the day but that feature came with the best wind shear. Once those clouds / moisture came in (ruining the lapse rates), that basically killed the whole ordeal. After the prefrontal trough / best shear, mixing in the BL destroyed any opportunity thereafter. Yup it was ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Clouds weren't an issue in CT 6/6/10 Yeah they were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 That leftover MCS debris left us with garbage ML lapse rates too which already not supposed to be amazing to start with. The 6/1 event last year was like the opposite feeling...we all felt something really big could happen the night before. I think it was one of the only times we had a severe thread active well past midnight the night before the threat waiting for the models to come out. Once we saw all the clearing the next morning, it was game on. 6/1 became more and more impressive each successive model run. Even on Sunday prior to the event it looked really good and kept getting more impressive. No one should have been surprised we dropped a sig tor that day given rthe setup that was very well modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 What implications would an early morning MCS have if it cleared quickly after? Do they aid afternoon activity by providing extra moisture etc or is that not really significant? Didn't some morning stuff come in on 6/1 then get out quickly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Minutes after Skywarn secured for the night, Chepacet RI 61 mph, 3/4 hail Sweet. My sister in Burrilville used to live there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Clouds weren't an issue in CT 6/6/10 They were an issue everywhere...CT did manage a couple severe storms (and at least tornado warning) but everything was pretty ugly overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Surprise severe tonight, Hull Mass got rocked too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I wouldn't completely mind having that as the only issue though I just hope we are at least capped through much of the morning and into the early afternoon after any MCS goes through so we don't fire crap off too early and have this kill lapse rates as well as limit heating. Something else I was just thinking about is quite often in these setups valley locations will actually hold onto SE winds through much of the day...happened on 6/1/11...this is another reason we want a Cap to help prevent any maritime air sneaking in but could you imagine plastering SE sfc winds on those soundings and how much more helicity there would be Wherever the morning wave goes is key for setting up a potential gradient. That gradient could end up becoming perpendicular to the mean pressure falls, which would support a real enhanced low level shear setup. The valley effect would also occur with the pressure falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 6/1 became more and more impressive each successive model run. Even on Sunday prior to the event it looked really good and kept getting more impressive. No one should have been surprised we dropped a sig tor that day given rthe setup that was very well modeled. Yeah we were posting a lot of model data even on the night of the 30th I remember....and it just looked more and more impressive during the 31st and I remember a bunch of us were all waiting for 00z data the night before. I think the only time I can remember doing that with several posters (rather than just weatherwiz by himself) for a SNE severe event. We were waiting for the models like we do in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 If the excitement level is high Thursday noon, then it's on. Until then, typical high expectations but typical reality check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Yeah we were posting a lot of model data even on the night of the 30th I remember....and it just looked more and more impressive during the 31st and I remember a bunch of us were all waiting for 00z data the night before. I think the only time I can remember doing that with several posters (rather than just weatherwiz by himself) for a SNE severe event. We were waiting for the models like we do in winter. Yeah the day prior I was mentioning tornadoes on the air... don't do that very often lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Yeah we were posting a lot of model data even on the night of the 30th I remember....and it just looked more and more impressive during the 31st and I remember a bunch of us were all waiting for 00z data the night before. I think the only time I can remember doing that with several posters (rather than just weatherwiz by himself) for a SNE severe event. We were waiting for the models like we do in winter. Kevin was the only one forecasting a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 If the excitement level is Thursday noon, then it's on. Until then, typical high expectations but typical reality check. Day 2 high risk or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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