CT Rain Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Pretty strong wording for Ryan, wow. Hopefully tomorrow he is as bullish. Like Kev says WF position is key, best forcing will be as CF swings through warm sector. lol yeah it doesn't look "meh" now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 A photo from WFO BTV's facebook page... the Haze Cam in Burlington has caught some awesome images this summer, including that gnarly shelf cloud that brought 65mph winds to the ASOS. Here's a capture from last night's storms in Burlington, VT: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 I see the Euro is pretty stable during the day here in SNE. Keeps instability west until after 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 The lower-level EML is good and bad: The bad: 1. In general, has more potential to mix into low levels 2. Reduces mid-level lapse rate The good: 1. Doesn't take as much forcing and/or heating to break cap 2. Can increase the deep-layer CAPE The morning MCS will leave a boundary somewhere from NE PA / N NJ into CT / NY and it will keep the LCL low if current modeling is correct. The potential for a significant tornado is higher than normal with convection interacting with these features and with the associated pressure falls. If we can keep those llvl winds more southwesterly; given how model progs are for speeds of near 30 knots that I would think would really help to keep the moist air flowing into our region. Given how moisture in the llvls is quite impressive I would think this should win out over drier air attempting to mix down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 lol yeah it doesn't look "meh" now Just looked at NAM soundings, can see why you have a woody. Showalters and Sweat, TTs pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 I see the Euro is pretty stable during the day here in SNE. Keeps instability west until after 21z. Models may have quite a tough time handling instability these next few days given potential for morning MCS along with warm front placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 I do. Can I go with you? I can get out of work by 3:30. I'll have my new iphone tomorrow too...plus I'll have some money for gas. Dont get out til 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Either way Friday could be another severe day too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Dont get out til 4 Maybe there will be something ripping up towards BDL around 5-5:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Either way Friday could be another severe day too. As impressive as Thursday's potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Maybe there will be something ripping up towards BDL around 5-5:30 I hope its a late day thing. Id hate to miss something big. Were going on a field trip with camp but well get back to torrington around 3 probably. Maybe I can sneak away early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I hope its a late day thing. Id hate to miss something big. Were going on a field trip with camp but well get back to torrington around 3 probably. Maybe I can sneak away early. I would think it's an after 3 PM deal but we'll worry about timing and such tomorrow evening. Did I have your cell number or no? Text me if you can get out early on Thursday. Normally I work until 4:30 but I'm going to try and take someones early care so I can work 7:30-3:30 instead of 8:30-4:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 18z NAM near Waterbury, CT. That looks pretty impressive. I also think we should have enough of a strong persistent low level moisture flux to maintain the high PBL RH / low LCLs. This profile resembles that of a strong tornado day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Great stuff in here fellas. Just an awesome disco . Keep at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Yeah that's a tremendous sounding and I would really be willing to bet the NAM there is overdoing clouds...typically in these W/NW flow aloft setups the models seem to overdo cloud cover. Those shear profiles are epic too...is this late July or late September? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 A decent strike from the storms that rolled though earlier... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6H3u0OZjmLE&feature=youtu.be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Tomorrow will be a day to watch what unfolds over Michigan as the classic indicator of downstream potential for SNE. This event has some similarities to the epic fail of 6/6/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 A decent strike from the storms that rolled though earlier... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6H3u0OZjmLE&feature=youtu.be Nice grab! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Tomorrow will be a day to watch what unfolds over Michigan as the classic indicator of downstream potential for SNE. This event has some similarities to the epic fail of 6/6/10 Yes it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 6/6/10 wasn't an epic fail for me! I was right in the middle of that microburst!!!!! I kind of disagree though on the 6/6/10 ordeal...lapse rates that day SUCKED and I don't think they will be as bad Thursday as that day and I think that is something that could be a major difference breaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 6/6/10 wasn't an epic fail for me! I was right in the middle of that microburst!!!!! I kind of disagree though on the 6/6/10 ordeal...lapse rates that day SUCKED and I don't think they will be as bad Thursday as that day and I think that is something that could be a major difference breaker. Text me if you have a phone again...well take this planning out of the thread to not muck it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 6/6/10 wasn't an epic fail for me! I was right in the middle of that microburst!!!!! I kind of disagree though on the 6/6/10 ordeal...lapse rates that day SUCKED and I don't think they will be as bad Thursday as that day and I think that is something that could be a major difference breaker. Plus, If I recall correctly, cloud cover was a huge issue too. Still got some decent storms, but nothing tornado warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Text me if you have a phone again...well take this planning out of the thread to not muck it up I get my phone tomorrow. I'll shoot you a text around 6-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Seriously ?! Just heard a rumble and checked base reflectivity... R3 in Boston lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Yes it does The timing and strength of the major features were pretty different with that event IIRC...I believe that event had a sub 990mb low near Buffalo around noon on 6/6/10. The surface low is modeled on the NAM to be near Detroit around noon Thursday. The other thing about that event was the height falls and a powerful s/w...nothing modeled is quite that prolific. It really is a shame that set up didn't work out...I haven't gone back and looked at any re-analysis but I can remember it like yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 18z NAM near Waterbury, CT. That looks pretty impressive. I also think we should have enough of a strong persistent low level moisture flux to maintain the high PBL RH / low LCLs. This profile resembles that of a strong tornado day. I'd like to see a stronger velocity in the 0-3km level, but the directional aspect combined with the curve of that sounding are a solid 2 out 3. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Seriously ?! Just heard a rumble and checked base reflectivity... R3 in Boston lol Yup, cat's back under the bed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Plus, If I recall correctly, cloud cover was a huge issue too. Still got some decent storms, but nothing tornado warned. There was a tornado warning for Hartford County that day. There were several different issues but one issue I think played a major part is with the poor mid level lapse rates instability really never became impressive, while there were lots of clouds there were sufficient breaks and we warmed up very nicely. With such strong shear though and poor mid-level instability updrafts sort of were ripped apart and this prevented storms from really developing impressive enough cores to really tap into the wind shear/helicity to really produce anything tornadic...plus LCL's were high that day as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Where did that cell come from? Sitting here watching tv and noticed how windy it was, 10 minutes later a flash outside a now special weather statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 The timing and strength of the major features were pretty different with that event IIRC...I believe that event had a sub 990mb low near Buffalo around noon on 6/6/10. The surface low is modeled on the NAM to be near Detroit around noon Thursday. The other thing about that event was the height falls and a powerful s/w...nothing modeled is quite that prolific. It really is a shame that set up didn't work out...I haven't gone back and looked at any re-analysis but I can remember it like yesterday. IIRC, wasn't there actually quite a large disconnect between the much better upper-level forcing/support and stronger instability and such on 6/6/10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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