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Severe weather thread number ...I think X ?


Typhoon Tip

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Yeah I'm telling you it was nasty windy. We are 1 minute from the Ocean. I don't think it was that strong but it was at least 50-55

Your nuts man, in OC for Nights in Venice, lol. I'm only 20 mins from there, and I don't dare set foot down there this weekend.

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GFS is very meh... Euro ejects the s/w east and has a really nice look.

Being this far out I'm always extremely cautious with models when they show such strong vort maxes or sfc lows...especially if you have disagreement going on.

If perhaps by Wednesday we're still seeing it on the Euro or if the GFS catches on it will be a bit more worthy.

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iirc there are a number of years in the 50s through 70s with tors in Aug, across the interior and esp CNE/NNE. something to watch.

Actually, the majority of impressive storms I can remember seeing, occur in Aug. Esp. living on Cape Cod.

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iirc there are a number of years in the 50s through 70s with tors in Aug, across the interior and esp CNE/NNE. something to watch.

Actually, the majority of impressive storms I can remember seeing, occur in Aug. Esp. living on Cape Cod.

Wake me up when we see this

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Interesting to see these observations ahead of the supercell. Winds initially on 8/28/73 were due south in that ALB sounding at the surface creating that nice curved hodograph. At CEF an hour before the tornado winds were due west at 270... sort of meh for low level helicity I'd imagine. By 17z winds were 210deg cranking it back up ahead of the supercell. Not the RMK showing PRESFR.

I probably would have been a bit meh on the day that morning saying that winds would veer and the boundary layer would dry out too quickly lol.

METAR KCEF 281500Z 20010KT 2SM DZ OVC/// BKN035 OVC200 29/24 A2988 RMK H5/ SLP120 8/507 T02880238 55005

METAR KCEF 281600Z 27010KT 2SM DZ OVC/// BKN035 OVC120 29/23 A2987 RMK H5 SLPNO T02940227

METAR KCEF 281700Z 21010KT 2SM DZ OVC/// SCT035 OVC070 27/23 A2983 RMK H5 CB NW-NE MOVG S PRESFR FMH -X SLPNO T0272022

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Interesting to see these observations ahead of the supercell. Winds initially on 8/28/73 were due south in that ALB sounding at the surface creating that nice curved hodograph. At CEF an hour before the tornado winds were due west at 270... sort of meh for low level helicity I'd imagine. By 17z winds were 210deg cranking it back up ahead of the supercell. Not the RMK showing PRESFR.

I probably would have been a bit meh on the day that morning saying that winds would veer and the boundary layer would dry out too quickly lol.

METAR KCEF 281500Z 20010KT 2SM DZ OVC/// BKN035 OVC200 29/24 A2988 RMK H5/ SLP120 8/507 T02880238 55005

METAR KCEF 281600Z 27010KT 2SM DZ OVC/// BKN035 OVC120 29/23 A2987 RMK H5 SLPNO T02940227

METAR KCEF 281700Z 21010KT 2SM DZ OVC/// SCT035 OVC070 27/23 A2983 RMK H5 CB NW-NE MOVG S PRESFR FMH -X SLPNO T0272022

The main supercell of interest that day moved SSE from just east of Albany, NY toward Canaan, NY and West Stockbridge, MA putting down an F4 tornado in the process. It touched down in Canaan and moved across the state line into West Stockbridge killing 4 people and injuring 37 others. It destroyed a truck stop on MA-102 just east of the state line. Given that the tornado went about 5 miles to the west of my present location, I would've likely been in the large hail and downdraft portion of the supercell depending on its size.

I just wonder if tornado damage surveys were done the same way back then as they are now. An F4 on the old scale would be an EF5 on the new scale if you compare the estimated wind speeds. I find it hard to believe that this tornado would equate to an EF5 on today's enhanced Fujita scale, but based on the photos I found, it appears it was at least an EF3, perhaps an EF4.

I found a couple of photos online and there is twisted metal and a scene of total devastation at the truck stop indicating that this was a powerful tornado. As the tornado path was only 9 miles, it was a rather short lived tornado. Regardless, it still did massive damage in a small area.

Photo source: http://www.weststock...-09_FinalLo.pdf (page 12)

Map source: http://www.tornadohi...o/1973/8/28/map

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post-48-0-42877200-1343615192_thumb.png

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This is a pretty strongly worded D4-8 outlook

...DISCUSSION...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE IMPULSE

WILL DIG SOUTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES BY THE BEGINNING OF THE

FORECAST PERIOD...BEFORE ACCELERATING THROUGH THE STRONGER

WESTERLIES NEAR THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH NEXT

WEEKEND. SPREAD AMONG THE MODEL DATA BEGINS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY BY

FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE IMPULSE APPROACHES WHAT COULD STILL BE A

STRONGLY CONFLUENT REGIME BETWEEN THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. SUBTROPICAL

RIDGE...AND THE NORTHEASTERN CANADIAN POLAR VORTEX...WHICH MAY BE IN

THE PROCESS OF REDEVELOPING EASTWARD. THIS ALSO GENERALLY COINCIDES

WITH MODEL TIMING OF STRONGER SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...WHICH COULD BE

ACCOMPANIED BY AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...POSSIBLY

INCLUDING THE RISK FOR TORNADOES...ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES

REGION. AT THE PRESENT TIME...THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS HIGHEST ACROSS

PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN NEXT SATURDAY /AUGUST 4/...BUT

UNCERTAINTIES ARE STILL TOO LARGE TO CONFIDENTLY DELINEATE A

REGIONAL SEVERE THREAT AREA.

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