Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Break from WX until I get into work. It was a long day yesterday. Oh ok I just saw your tweet and wondered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 68F BOS, 84F TAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Would definitely agree this possibility exists. The euro ensembles, though showing a persistent weakness along the east coast in the means, definitely give a good hint for a ridge surge pushing to the east coast in this exact fashion. I don't know if I have the strength to follow another one of these lol. Oh come on, this sh-t is fun and you know it! I didn't mean to dismiss the convective threats before next weekend but I'm only going to pay attention to the stuff with some predictability in the extended range. If we can properly advect the heat in next weekend, the models would favor another "widespread" potential Aug 4-6 (latter end for NE). You can see how at some point, this pattern will lead to an actual widespread event for the Northeast. The warm water, expansive drought/warmth in the CONUS and the jet stream trying to transition to El Nino will ultimately lead to something (old and new regimes battling can lead to fun). I am not ready to say "autumn 2001 or 2003" yet but I could definitely see a few more "outbreaks." I don't think we're done yet folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Oh come on, this sh-t is fun and you know it! I didn't mean to dismiss the convective threats before next weekend but I'm only going to pay attention to the stuff with some predictability in the extended range. If we can properly advect the heat in next weekend, the models would favor another "widespread" potential Aug 4-6 (latter end for NE). You can see how at some point, this pattern will lead to an actual widespread event for the Northeast. The warm water, expansive drought/warmth in the CONUS and the jet stream trying to transition to El Nino will ultimately lead to something (old and new regimes battling can lead to fun). I am not ready to say "autumn 2001 or 2003" yet but I could definitely see a few more "outbreaks." I don't think we're done yet folks. Interesting summer up here, actually seems rather normal with some heat some cool. I know positive departures and all but nothing extreme yet. Plenty of Tstorm days and now we transition into a typical dog days pattern. For a region wide severe event it is going to take a really cool air mass to bum rush the coast with authority. Tough to do this time of year. Yea it seems Autumn could be very volatile this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Interesting summer up here, actually seems rather normal with some heat some cool. I know positive departures and all but nothing extreme yet. Plenty of Tstorm days and now we transition into a typical dog days pattern. For a region wide severe event it is going to take a really cool air mass to bum rush the coast with authority. Tough to do this time of year. Yea it seems Autumn could be very volatile this year. Summer in the Mid Latitudes is not going to want to let go easily this year but nothing can stop the whole tilt-loss of sun thing that goes on at the poles (lol). I am not quite confident enough to say rough autumn on the way only because I haven't been regularly checking the long range stuff recently. But looking at this on these simple terms could certainly bring some interesting events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Ray will try to hook up with one of them in 2 yrs. Holy SH**t, That's rocking the craddle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Things starting to pop now over western CT . Should be able to form into some monster rain producers given the setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Oh come on, this sh-t is fun and you know it! I didn't mean to dismiss the convective threats before next weekend but I'm only going to pay attention to the stuff with some predictability in the extended range. If we can properly advect the heat in next weekend, the models would favor another "widespread" potential Aug 4-6 (latter end for NE). You can see how at some point, this pattern will lead to an actual widespread event for the Northeast. The warm water, expansive drought/warmth in the CONUS and the jet stream trying to transition to El Nino will ultimately lead to something (old and new regimes battling can lead to fun). I am not ready to say "autumn 2001 or 2003" yet but I could definitely see a few more "outbreaks." I don't think we're done yet folks. It was pretty damn fun to watch this threat materialize the day of, even if it ultimately failed my expectations. In the end I saw a nice shelf cloud from a dying line of t-storms for the 4th time in the 2 months I've been in Stamford...I suspect a trend for my location near the sound here. This particular shelf cloud was really sick I'll give it that, but I have let loose farts that had more speed to them than the winds yesterday..And I incredibly didnt see a single strike of lightning. Then there is this to boot: 2350 UNK HOLMDEL MONMOUTH NJ TREES DOWN ALONG GARDEN STATE PARKWAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 It was pretty damn fun to watch this threat materialize the day of, even if it ultimately failed my expectations. In the end I saw a nice shelf cloud from a dying line of t-storms for the 4th time in the 2 months I've been in Stamford...I suspect a trend for my location near the sound here. This particular shelf cloud was really sick I'll give it that, but I have let loose farts that had more speed to them than the winds yesterday..And I incredibly didnt see a single strike of lightning. Then there is this to boot: 2350 UNK HOLMDEL MONMOUTH NJ TREES DOWN ALONG GARDEN STATE PARKWAY. Believe it or not, I had legitimate wind here. In fact, Bordentown had trees down (this town is just down the street from me) and my area had large branches. I had 3 bouts of strong wind. Better than expectations for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 One interesting thing for me from last night's storms, I have my first acorns on the ground. We had precious few last year and am thrilled to be seeing them again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 The peak of yesterday's severe action... NWS confirms tornado touched ground in Elmira NY Prelim rating EF1 with max winds up to 110 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Last week everything just missed to the north..this week everything is just missing to the south as it pours just to my SW. Hands thrown up in despair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Nice line of storms firing on the seabreeze boundary in S CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Nice line of storms firing on the seabreeze boundary in S CT Great view from here at work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Great view from here at work Yeah it's pretty cool... outflow from initial showers up in Litchfield County traveled south and once it hit the sea breeze front the towers really went up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Small hail sigs showing up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Very scudzy sky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 looks like a decent rain-maker there in SE CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 looks like a decent rain-maker there in SE CT. I will know in about a minute, very dark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 I will know in about a minute, very dark Core is high enough to start producing some CG strikes I'd think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 another little cell just popped N of BDL too...tiny little downpour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 i get deflated with the weather after days like yesterday that are interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Core is high enough to start producing some CG strikes I'd think. have not seen any lightning, watching outside my office window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonkis Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Nice downpour just moved through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 i get deflated with the weather after days like yesterday that are interesting. Yea like waiting for windex or ULL snows after a monster 970 veers east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 looks like a decent rain-maker there in SE CT. I will know in about a minute, very dark Core is high enough to start producing some CG strikes I'd think. Heavy, heavy rain! I'll go check the gauge in bit to see how much. Heard a couple good rumbles of thunder but not a big deal. Looks like Ginx is getting hit harder over in Ledyard than I was here in Salem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Core is to my north by a mile, heavy rain here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Cell firing just to my west. Most likely will find a way to not make it here and vanish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 That thing put down 25 quick CG strikes east of Norwich in the last 15 mins. Core has collapsed a bit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Torrential at this point, same pic as before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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