Mr Torchey Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 storm out over the sound se of HVN looks nice, dropping some ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 R2 in Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Some of these SREF probs are pretty impressive for Thursday still being 48 hours out. Post em up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Post em up Give me 2 minutes...it's just some parameters though so keep that in mind. Basically the 15z SPC SREF has supercell composite parameter near 9 over CT with sig TOR of 2 with SIG TOR area over CT. I'll post the images in a sec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Post em up Impressive for 54 hours out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 SIG TOR ingredients: SIG TOR parameter 30% chance for SIG TOR >3 Supercell COmposite Parameter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Round 2 looks great for my plants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Jerry's got hail in his hood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Based on Wizs post best threat seems NYC NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Based on Wizs post best threat seems NYC NJ From looking at other data and such I would actually think eastern PA into northern NJ and southeast NY into the Hudson would be the best area right now...certainly have to watch western CT/MA though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 From looking at other data and such I would actually think eastern PA into northern NJ and southeast NY into the Hudson would be the best area right now...certainly have to watch western CT/MA though. sure you saw this, 12Z Nam for Thursday evening, 0-3km EHI: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 WOW! Thanks for posting that! I actually have not seen that yet. Just got home from work not too long ago so haven't looked at everything yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 WOW..crosshair in SNE for TOR"S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 WOW..crosshair in SNE for TOR"S No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 No. YEs. Sorry..Those maps are significant and hopefully come to fruition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 From looking at other data and such I would actually think eastern PA into northern NJ and southeast NY into the Hudson would be the best area right now...certainly have to watch western CT/MA though. Busy and haven't had a chance to follow this much until recently, but I do like the CT river valley centered around HFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 The key will be being able to develop at least moderate instability where the strongest shear/helicity is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 YEs. Sorry..Those maps are significant and hopefully come to fruition Good luck, you have called for 6 Tor days so far, suppose you will hit one eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Busy and haven't had a chance to follow this much until recently, but I do like the CT river valley centered around HFD Just basing off the SPC SREF's the best instability along with shear/helicity is from NE PA extending eastward into western CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Good luck, you have called for 6 Tor days so far, suppose you will hit one eventually. So much for you being nice to everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 So much for you being nice to everyone LOL you know you da man!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Another HUGE key to all of this will be can the EML plume sustain itself? Judging by the SPC SREF doesn't seem to likely, however, the NAM certainly wants to keep it going with lapse rates near/over 7 C/KM into CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 I do think there is a tornado/high end severe threat on Thursday. Timing of morning MCS activity as well as getting the warm front through will be key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 I do think there is a tornado/high end severe threat on Thursday. Timing of morning MCS activity as well as getting the warm front through will be key. Would you think it would be a late afternoon/evening kind of thing? I want to be able to chase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Would you think it would be a late afternoon/evening kind of thing? I want to be able to chase I do. Can I go with you? I can get out of work by 3:30. I'll have my new iphone tomorrow too...plus I'll have some money for gas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 I do think there is a tornado/high end severe threat on Thursday. Timing of morning MCS activity as well as getting the warm front through will be key. I kind of like the Euro depiction how it basically drapes the w/f right along the MA/CT border or just a bit south of that. That would be ideal. It also brings the MCS right along or just south of the Pike. Hopefully we can get that out of here early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 That's why we want to sustain that EML plume...that will help us to clear things out much quicker as well as be a major boost to instability values later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 I do think there is a tornado/high end severe threat on Thursday. Timing of morning MCS activity as well as getting the warm front through will be key. The lower-level EML is good and bad: The bad: 1. In general, has more potential to mix into low levels 2. Reduces mid-level lapse rate The good: 1. Doesn't take as much forcing and/or heating to break cap 2. Can increase the deep-layer CAPE The morning MCS will leave a boundary somewhere from NE PA / N NJ into CT / NY and it will keep the LCL low if current modeling is correct. The potential for a significant tornado is higher than normal with convection interacting with these features and with the associated pressure falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Pretty strong wording for Ryan, wow. Hopefully tomorrow he is as bullish. Like Kev says WF position is key, best forcing will be as CF swings through warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 The lower-level EML is good and bad: The bad: 1. In general, has more potential to mix into low levels 2. Reduces mid-level lapse rate The good: 1. Doesn't take as much forcing and/or heating to break cap 2. Can increase the deep-layer CAPE The morning MCS will leave a boundary somewhere from NE PA / N NJ into CT / NY and it will keep the LCL low if current modeling is correct. The potential for a significant tornado is higher than normal with convection interacting with these features and with the associated pressure falls. Yeah you can see a fairly sizable amount of CIN for surface based parcels on the 18z NAM. Not sure how this will evolve but whenever you see a modeled low/mid level jet like we have modeled in July/August/September I always take note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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