Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Looks like the doubting of the heavier rain yesterday aftn turned out more right then wrong. It's been raining all night up here. What happened to today's storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 What happened to today's storms? I didn't really look at today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Looked like the chance of sct stuff down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 I didn't really look at today. Well I know, but you posted several times that Friday looked good...and Phil posted yesterday that the Eastern 2/3 or SNE looked good. Maybe we fire some storms inland along old boundaries and terrain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Well I know, but you posted several times that Friday looked good...and Phil posted yesterday that the Eastern 2/3 or SNE looked good. Maybe we fire some storms inland along old boundaries and terrain With the front draped over the region we risk the chance of stuff firing up, we just need something to trigger that. Some clearing and daytime heating will help. I think the best chances for rains are this weekend as the trough moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Well I know, but you posted several times that Friday looked good...and Phil posted yesterday that the Eastern 2/3 or SNE looked good. Maybe we fire some storms inland along old boundaries and terrain It looked decent yesterday for ern areas, but you'll need sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 A few scattered showers overnight here, .14" in the gauge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 A few scattered showers overnight here, .14" in the gauge Received some much needed rain. 0.64" today and yesterday. Should be able to mow again. The mower has been idle for over 2 weeks. Today: 0.38 in Yesterday: 0.26 in Last Rain: 7/27/2012 9:07 AM July: 1.63 in Last 7 Days: 0.74 in Rain Season: 30.49 in Rain Days: 84 in 2012 6 rain days in July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 It looked decent yesterday for ern areas, but you'll need sun. Off to Ocean City tomorrow morning around 5:30 am.Looks soupy and swamp azzy down there with afternoon convection just about everyday.. Florida like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Received some much needed rain. 0.64" today and yesterday. Should be able to mow again. The mower has been idle for over 2 weeks. Today: 0.38 in Yesterday: 0.26 in Last Rain: 7/27/2012 9:07 AM July: 1.63 in Last 7 Days: 0.74 in Rain Season: 30.49 in Rain Days: 84 in 2012 6 rain days in July. We will need some help if i want to crack 1.00" here for the month, We have been missed by most of the showers of the last 2 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Off to Ocean City tomorrow morning around 5:30 am. Looks soupy and swamp azzy down there with afternoon convection just about everyday.. Florida like You should love it then. Be sure to keep away from the air conditioning to get the full effect that you enjoy so much. New Jersey or Maryland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 What happened to today's storms? What happened to yesterday's storms? A bit of thunder in the distance and a few shots of distant lighting and it was over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstoned Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 You see how this all filters down to the public, especially in a now weather sensitive place like Monson, Massachusetts. At noontime yesterday, a visitor to my home was talking of tornado weather from what she'd heard with the usual half ear listening to media reports people use in situations like this. (This before any watches had been issued). Weather savvy people can also be excused, I think, for expecting a lot more then what actually occurred. When you see the area of moderate risk grazing your area, the least one would reasonably anticipate would be an active day of thunderstorm and downpour. Such expectations were more than encouraged by the flash flood watch the NWS posted by late morning. Classic severe outbreaks such as June 1 provide plenty of overflow of activity-- everybody gets something. That wedge tornado was the centerpiece last year, but there was a spectacular overflow of storminess for just about everyone across southern New England. Yesterday was of course, no June 1, though that date was brought up a few times in discussion on these pages. But all in all, based on the general guidance and issuing of watches, I wouldn't blame anyone who would classify this as a bust across south central Massachusetts and elsewhere. (All this said, I totally appreciate how difficult it is to forecast in complicated situations such as those existing yesterday.) Lessons I take from this: 1. It's very hard to open the spigots in the grips of drought. 2. Go with the pattern. If severe weather has been missing your area, and/or not living up to expectations all season, keep your expectations low. Once again, as has happened over and over again this summer, the storm focus was to the south of here. 3. If your skin don't crawl and your shirt don't cling, you'll end up not getting much of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 You should love it then. Be sure to keep away from the air conditioning to get the full effect that you enjoy so much. New Jersey or Maryland? Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Off to Ocean City tomorrow morning around 5:30 am. Looks soupy and swamp azzy down there with afternoon convection just about everyday.. Florida like enjoy. You should miss traffic leaving that early-don't stop the GSP backs up mid to late morning. - we're down Wed- to Wed 8/1 to 8/8. - seen some great storms there over the years-flat terrain with almost no trees so visibility is great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Jersey Gonna try and get some action from Snookie? or the Situation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 3. If your skin don't crawl and your shirt don't cling, you'll end up not getting much of anything. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 about SNE and the quality of threads during go time......wow awesome read, great input from ALL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 about SNE and the quality of threads during go time......wow awesome read, great input from ALL. I had been thinking the same. Although I really sat out of the disco to listen to the mets and informed hobbyists... Great analysis before, during, after. Thanks everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 enjoy. You should miss traffic leaving that early-don't stop the GSP backs up mid to late morning. - we're down Wed- to Wed 8/1 to 8/8. - seen some great storms there over the years-flat terrain with almost no trees so visibility is great. Just have to make sure everyone else is up and moving at 5:00 am. With 3 females in the house..that isn't quite so simple. But when i scare them with hours of traffic stuck in a hot car...that seems to work Can't wait to get down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Plenty of sun this morning south of pike, so we'll see if some of us can't fire off some storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 You see how this all filters down to the public, especially in a now weather sensitive place like Monson, Massachusetts. At noontime yesterday, a visitor to my home was talking of tornado weather from what she'd heard with the usual half ear listening to media reports people use in situations like this. (This before any watches had been issued). Weather savvy people can also be excused, I think, for expecting a lot more then what actually occurred. When you see the area of moderate risk grazing your area, the least one would reasonably anticipate would be an active day of thunderstorm and downpour. Such expectations were more than encouraged by the flash flood watch the NWS posted by late morning. Classic severe outbreaks such as June 1 provide plenty of overflow of activity-- everybody gets something. That wedge tornado was the centerpiece last year, but there was a spectacular overflow of storminess for just about everyone across southern New England. Yesterday was of course, no June 1, though that date was brought up a few times in discussion on these pages. But all in all, based on the general guidance and issuing of watches, I wouldn't blame anyone who would classify this as a bust across south central Massachusetts and elsewhere. (All this said, I totally appreciate how difficult it is to forecast in complicated situations such as those existing yesterday.) Lessons I take from this: 1. It's very hard to open the spigots in the grips of drought. 2. Go with the pattern. If severe weather has been missing your area, and/or not living up to expectations all season, keep your expectations low. Once again, as has happened over and over again this summer, the storm focus was to the south of here. 3. If your skin don't crawl and your shirt don't cling, you'll end up not getting much of anything. Well I don't necessarily agree with lessons 1-3 but I do think you bring up a good point. This is something I need to work on and I'm not sure the easiest way to go about this. There is a large inherent uncertainty that comes with forecasting convection. There are a number of synoptic, mesoscale, and most importantly storm scale processes that go in to a big severe outbreak. When we forecast 12" of snow we're pretty sure we're going to get it. When I forecast a setup favorable for severe weather or tornadoes my confidence level is way lower than it would be for a snowstorm. How do you express that uncertainty in a deterministic forecast? Severe weather by its nature is normally quite isolated. Look at a tornado... one neighborhood can be decimated while one street over isn't even touched. Definitely a challenge to communicate both the uncertainty and how severe weather works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Just have to make sure everyone else is up and moving at 5:00 am. With 3 females in the house..that isn't quite so simple. But when i scare them with hours of traffic stuck in a hot car...that seems to work Can't wait to get down there you have to go on the giant ferris wheel-unless your afraid of heights-unreal view from up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Finally got a chance to catch up on the thread..a lot of great post-mortem analysis here. I would say the event underperformed to my own expectations once it got to the se NY/NYC/NJ/west CT area, and that's not because I saw barely a 20 mph wind gust in Stamford lol, but going all the way back to a lack of high wind reports even further west. I certainly wouldn't call it a total bust given all of the reports, but I was anticipating a higher end event over all. What stands out to me most is the talk of earlier arrival (before 00z-03z window that had the forecast best parameters) and outrunning the best synoptic support. With the onset of convection across the Lake Erie area yesterday afternoon, we probably could have anticipated a faster arrival then the 00z-03z. An accelerating cold pool with severe winds of 50-60 mph+ should propagate the line forward with the new updrafts forming. This would be related to outrunning the synoptic support as well, which some have already mentioned was not the greatest to begin with anyway. The mid-level (700-500) lapse rates were never forecast to be there, but the layer that Arnold described as a possible remnant surface mixed layer at 900-600 was forecast by the nam and i thought that could possibly serve a similar purpose..It did show up on the IAD sounding at 18z as well, and initially on the kpit 12z sounding..it was likely over much of central PA where the line peaked...but probably wasnt present across the NYC area (pdrhaps not having the time to advect in)...EDIT: As others have pointed out, the real issue was probably the cin that this layer supplied over a surface layer that had not fully destabilized like areas further southwest. Deja vu Aug 4-6? Would definitely agree this possibility exists. The euro ensembles, though showing a persistent weakness along the east coast in the means, definitely give a good hint for a ridge surge pushing to the east coast in this exact fashion. I don't know if I have the strength to follow another one of these lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Just have to make sure everyone else is up and moving at 5:00 am. With 3 females in the house..that isn't quite so simple. But when i scare them with hours of traffic stuck in a hot car...that seems to work Can't wait to get down there Hope you have 4 bathrooms...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Hope you have 4 bathrooms...... 2. I'll be building an out house over the next year or 2. Once they are teenagers..I may even move out for a few years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 2. I'll be building an out house over the next year or 2. Once they are teenagers..I may even move out for a few years lol, I had 2 sisters growing up and know what you deal with, Glad i had 2 boys, Its the wife that fights for the bathroom time...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Ryan..any particular areas today favored for storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 2. I'll be building an out house over the next year or 2. Once they are teenagers..I may even move out for a few years Ray will try to hook up with one of them in 10 yrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Ryan..any particular areas today favored for storms? Break from WX until I get into work. It was a long day yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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