HM Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 I laughed hard at that but so true. Truth be told very few derechos make it to our SNE SE coast anyway. That sh it sandwich ain't worth eating. The storms may have begun to weaken in the best instability ridge from Hudson Valley into N NJ but they were likely ingesting that sandwich at the time. Those pretty SPC graphics from the RR that spit out high CAPE and whatever other index you'd like by the hour are unfortunately at a fixed time. What are the storms heading for and what will they be ingesting has to also be considered. Good lessons today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 I believe it was Brian (I don't remember) who said "usually derechos end heat waves and this isn't that setup." There is actually a bit of truth to this statement. If mother nature was free to blow its wad with an accelerating QLCS in a seemingly infinite supply of instability downstream, you could see how you would end up reaching derecho criteria (6/29/2012 event). Today's event wanted to be like all the other derechos except it got to the coastal plain and said, "WTF is this sh-t." Events like that definitely require much better instability than we had today..and yeah, it was "WTF is this" once it got anywhere near the coast. One of the reasons we rarely get events more commonly seen in the plains is we have a hard time putting the good moisture together with steep ML lapse rates to get the better normalized CAPE vs the more "paper tiger" thin high CAPE values that look impressive on the sfc CAPE maps, but don't support as explosive development. It would definitely be interesting to see a sample of all the soundings for New England during high-end outbreaks as Ekster said. Someone will write a code for that eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 The storms may have begun to weaken in the best instability ridge from Hudson Valley into N NJ but they were likely ingesting that sandwich at the time. Those pretty SPC graphics from the RR that spit out high CAPE and whatever other index you'd like by the hour are unfortunately at a fixed time. What are the storms heading for and what will they be ingesting has to also be considered. Good lessons today... Best part of this profession, hobby is its forever a learning experience. When you think you got it licked it stomps you in the balls and says take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 The storms may have begun to weaken in the best instability ridge from Hudson Valley into N NJ but they were likely ingesting that sandwich at the time. Those pretty SPC graphics from the RR that spit out high CAPE and whatever other index you'd like by the hour are unfortunately at a fixed time. What are the storms heading for and what will they be ingesting has to also be considered. Good lessons today... just a random observation... Was just looking at the 1 hour lightning strike loop. The highest concentration of strikes (about 15000/hr) was when the line was between Bradford and Williamsport PA. It was downhill after that the whole way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Marine influence gets you in winter and summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 There was no EML invloved in this event whatsoever...at least not up this way. Why do I keep reading this? The mid level lapse rates were weak and was part of the problem in getting these storms to survive to the coast. guess what I'm saying is I thought there was a eml but a low one. I read this in several mets posts. If that is another way of saying theres no eml then I apologize. I would just wonder why so many thought this would be significant svr in the absense of a eml. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Events like that definitely require much better instability than we had today..and yeah, it was "WTF is this" once it got anywhere near the coast. One of the reasons we rarely get events more commonly seen in the plains is we have a hard time putting the good moisture together with steep ML lapse rates to get the better normalized CAPE vs the more "paper tiger" thin high CAPE values that look impressive on the sfc CAPE maps, but don't support as explosive development. It would definitely be interesting to see a sample of all the soundings for New England during high-end outbreaks as Ekster said. Someone will write a code for that eventually. Well I don't think most expected much northeast of Hartford today. The event always looked quite marginal outside of W CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 MA never had a shot. Kudos to you, Ryan, HM, Will, Wiz, etc. for always keeping the focus to the SW where it belonged. I really don't think anyone on the board hyped MA too much at all... I was hoping to see something like the GFS showed yesterday where the overnight stuff stayed well north. Didn't happen and I knew we were in trouble early. However the above statement is a bit too strong, and a tiny bit disrespectful IMO to Taunton and the SPC. I was on a conference call with Taunton this morning at 11 AM and they most certainly were hitting the MA threat, no question, and not just south of the Pike either. Surprised me a little TBH, but still... SPC had quite a bit of MA in 45% hatched wind, and even expanded the 5% tor in the afternoon update. Not to mention the very high probs in the Severe T-Storm watch and Albany even extended the tornado watch into S. VT. I think you could say this was a bust here, and not that we never had a shot. But that said, this is why I am on AmWx so much, because of the great and knowledgeable posters and mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Marine influence gets you in winter and summer Coastal enhancement happen too so not all negative but yea the big pond runs the roost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Well I don't think most expected much northeast of Hartford today. The event always looked quite marginal outside of W CT. Agreed...but I think this played a role too in the event being a bit less impressive even down in SW CT and lower Hudson Valley. Without the good ML lapse rates, there was a much lower margin for error...in fairness, the lapse rates looked like they'd be much better yesterday (particularly the NAM), but this morning there were some red flags on that front. The overnight.early morning stuff may have played a role in that, though the GFS never really bought into it despite keeping the early activity well north. At any rate, its always good to get an overview of what might have happened when an event under performs to make us better for next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 After sunset severe events are as rare here as tropical storms. Everything has to be perfect. Cloud debris, timing screwed the pooch. Hopefully the media saturation was not too much. I know everyone was aware which is good. For nocturnal events here you want to have days of 90's with dewpoints into the lower 70's with 500mb temps at least -15C or lower over or working into the region the evening of with a very anomalous s/w working in associated with a 90-100kt ULJ max and very strong MLJ punching into the region...getting cooling 500mb temps past sunset is key to sustaining instability or even allowing the atmosphere to destabilize even further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Coastal enhancement happen too so not all negative but yea the big pond runs the roost. Yes, Steve it can be helpful if you are on the right side of it, More so in winter, But most of the time, The sea is king Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 As far as today goes everything went pretty well I think...sure it sucked for many of us here but all in all many peopl's thoughts worked out...the area from PA to NY/CT border got destroyed. This is what many thought...as for western MA/CT it was very responsible to mention these areas for the major potential b/c they were exceptionally close to where models were hinting at the strongest action. It's just like with SVR or TOR watches...if you're the county over from where the watch ends that doesn't mean you're out of the gun...you should still keep a close eye out...in the watch it distinctly says, "in and around the watch area". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tstorm723 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 .01 for the day? Not what I expected...or needed. Not even a half in so far for the month here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Kudos to you, Ryan, HM, Will, Wiz, etc. for always keeping the focus to the SW where it belonged. I really don't think anyone on the board hyped MA too much at all... I was hoping to see something like the GFS showed yesterday where the overnight stuff stayed well north. Didn't happen and I knew we were in trouble early. However the above statement is a bit too strong, and a tiny bit disrespectful IMO to Taunton and the SPC. I was on a conference call with Taunton this morning at 11 AM and they most certainly were hitting the MA threat, no question, and not just south of the Pike either. Surprised me a little TBH, but still... SPC had quite a bit of MA in 45% hatched wind, and even expanded the 5% tor in the afternoon update. Not to mention the very high probs in the Severe T-Storm watch and Albany even extended the tornado watch into S. VT. I think you could say this was a bust here, and not that we never had a shot. But that said, this is why I am on AmWx so much, because of the great and knowledgeable posters and mets. I only had my phone to use, and I really didn't think most of MA had a shot for severe. I thought maybe a smaller chance in se ma if we could get a complex going with embedded heavier echoes like HM said. JMHO. That doesn't mean no tstms. I think most agreed with that. I can't say much more as others looked at this more than I did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Agreed...but I think this played a role too in the event being a bit less impressive even down in SW CT and lower Hudson Valley. Without the good ML lapse rates, there was a much lower margin for error...in fairness, the lapse rates looked like they'd be much better yesterday (particularly the NAM), but this morning there were some red flags on that front. The overnight.early morning stuff may have played a role in that, though the GFS never really bought into it despite keeping the early activity well north. At any rate, its always good to get an overview of what might have happened when an event under performs to make us better for next time. Yeah agreed. I think the s/w hanging back also hurt things... would have been nice to see height falls when the storms were moving in. The storms ran ahead of the forcing and the instability was quite marginal from BDR-HFD points east. HM brought up a great point that's worth reiterating to the :weenie:s. If you have 2500 j/kg of CAPE over DXR and a marine cooled boundary layer with 1000 j/kg of CAPE over HVN along with some CIN... those parcels are the ones being ingested in the storm. Have to look at the entire environment ahead of the complex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 I only had my phone to use, and I really didn't think most of MA had a shot for severe. I thought maybe a smaller chance in se ma if we could get a complex going with embedded heavier echoes like HM said. JMHO. That doesn't mean no tstms. I think most agreed with that. I can't say much more as others looked at this more than I did. More reports coming in from NJ. 4 injuries now with fallen trees including an infant. I had an extended period of winds gusting close to severe limits; I am not surprised by the falling trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 I only had my phone to use, and I really didn't think most of MA had a shot for severe. I thought maybe a smaller chance in se ma if we could get a complex going with embedded heavier echoes like HM said. JMHO. That doesn't mean no tstms. I think most agreed with that. I can't say much more as others looked at this more than I did. fair enough, and in fact you were absolutely right only using your phone. "No shot" equals "no bust" however, and yet I've already got more than one of the obligatory "mets are always wrong" comments from folks (and by folks I mean idiots) around here who saw twitter blowing up, local news affiliates mentioning the T and D words for this area, NWS and SPC sending out ominous wording for three + counties removed from the action. Maybe not 6/6/10, but for public perception up here, not a great day for mets in general. Then again, you can never please the "folks". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 fair enough, and in fact you were absolutely right only using your phone. "No shot" equals "no bust" however, and yet I've already got more than one of the obligatory "mets are always wrong" comments from folks (and by folks I mean idiots) around here who saw twitter blowing up, local news affiliates mentioning the T and D words for this area, NWS and SPC sending out ominous wording for three + counties removed from the action. Maybe not 6/6/10, but for public perception up here, not a great day for mets in general. Then again, you can never please the "folks". Yeah it was a bust... it happens. Potential was there but it just never materialized. Can't win 'em all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Yeah agreed. I think the s/w hanging back also hurt things... would have been nice to see height falls when the storms were moving in. The storms ran ahead of the forcing and the instability was quite marginal from BDR-HFD points east. HM brought up a great point that's worth reiterating to the :weenie:s. If you have 2500 j/kg of CAPE over DXR and a marine cooled boundary layer with 1000 j/kg of CAPE over HVN along with some CIN... those parcels are the ones being ingested in the storm. Have to look at the entire environment ahead of the complex. Thanks. Mike brought up the observation about lightning decreasing basically after IPT. The storms definitely didn't like what was downstream despite the seemingly higher instability from Hudson Valley-N NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 fair enough, and in fact you were absolutely right only using your phone. "No shot" equals "no bust" however, and yet I've already got more than one of the obligatory "mets are always wrong" comments from folks (and by folks I mean idiots) around here who saw twitter blowing up, local news affiliates mentioning the T and D words for this area, NWS and SPC sending out ominous wording for three + counties removed from the action. Maybe not 6/6/10, but for public perception up here, not a great day for mets in general. Then again, you can never please the "folks". While I got on the SPC about the 6/29 derecho, I am going to go back to default and defend them. Really, all things considered, the moderate risk area wasn't all that bad. Knowing what exactly the probabilities mean is obviously an issue. I saw meteorologists who clearly didn't know what it meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Yeah it was a bust... it happens. Potential was there but it just never materialized. Can't win 'em all. Well in any case, we can't blame you guys for it. It's human nature to group everyone in the same profession together. Some athletes are spoiled, so they're all spoiled. Some bankers and lawyers are crooks, so they're all crooks. Some mets were wrong... But in fact you guys were not wrong, and it does get noticed by some, so thank you very much for taking a lot of your time to post for this event and in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 It sounds like if the warm front was further northeast, the downstream environment would have been more favorable for the storms to hold in intensity. I initially didn't want the warm front to be too far north, as I felt that if you're closer to the front, you can better juxtapose all of the favorable parameters. But I guess even the people further south definitely could have afforded a further north warm front. Wasn't it drier as you went towards DC, though? I didn't want that drier air at the surface advecting this way. And yeah there definitely wasn't the synoptic scale ascent that you would normally want to see given the lack of height falls out this way and weak ML Lapse rates. The storms greatly outran the height falls. It's probably also a lot harder to advect an EML that would actually go much higher in the atmosphere into this area than it is to get to DC. Could we also have advected a more pronounced EML into the mid levels had the timing been delayed, or was there not really an EML to begin with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 guess what I'm saying is I thought there was a eml but a low one. I read this in several mets posts. If that is another way of saying theres no eml then I apologize. I would just wonder why so many thought this would be significant svr in the absense of a eml. Sometimes "low EMLs" are just the top of a remnant surface-based mixed layer from the previous day that kinda gets advected above slightly weaker low level lapse rates. I guess by definition these can technically be considered EML's too since they are elevated above the surface. Sorry if I misunderstood what you were getting at. However, when we talk about a good ol fashioned EML event, we are talking about very steep lapse rates usually centered in the 700-500mb layer. The main reason why high end severe weather events are rare in the northeast is because of weak lapse rates in the mid levels. The list of limiting factors can be rather large, but that one is at the top of the heap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 epic. flash flood watch going to be a bust too. great storms the other night, not even getting a sprinkle so far tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Yeah it was a bust... it happens. Potential was there but it just never materialized. Can't win 'em all. I definitely did think se ny would do a little better given the ML CAPE. That warm layer near 500mb may have been part of the problem as well as other factors previously mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 epic. flash flood watch going to be a bust too. great storms the other night, not even getting a sprinkle so far tonight. Hi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 epic. flash flood watch going to be a bust too. great storms the other night, not even getting a sprinkle so far tonight. My best storm by far was not forecasted or warned severe until if got behind me. Rain now tonight was nice. Get the Tuna smell out of the car? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Sometimes "low EMLs" are just the top of a remnant surface-based mixed layer from the previous day that kinda gets advected above slightly weaker low level lapse rates. I guess by definition these can technically be considered EML's too since they are elevated above the surface. Sorry if I misunderstood what you were getting at. However, when we talk about a good ol fashioned EML event, we are talking about very steep lapse rates usually centered in the 700-500mb layer. The main reason why high end severe weather events are rare in the northeast is because of weak lapse rates in the mid levels. The list of limiting factors can be rather large, but that one is at the top of the heap. And I'll add that there are at least two ways to counteract weak mid level lapse rates. 1) very high sfc dewpoints 2) great upper level support. we didn't have #2 today. I worked a somewhat impressive severe weather event here on July 4th with absolutely putrid mid level lapse rates around 5.5 c/km which is about as bad as it gets. However, the upper support in the form of a strong jet streak approaching from the NW was very strong. As a result, NH got crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 My Radarscope went from 38 warnings to 6 at sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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