Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,584
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Severe weather thread number ...I think X ?

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

Recommended Posts

ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

What a strange event...

There were skeptics, but maybe not for the reasons that ultimately mattered.

We had the 40-50 kts shear.

We had healthy Dews in northern PA / southeastern NY / southern CT.

We had decent CAPE into southeastern NY and western CT.

Sure, we had no isolated cells that fired up in this environment.

But...

Let's not forget at 4pm, everyone here was very impressed by radar with bowing complex rapidly moving at 50-55kts, with 5000j/kg2 of CAPE between it and northern NJ / NYC / western CT...

Let's not forget that SPC almost pulled the trigger on a High Risk.

It both looked more impressive than it actually was, and it crapped out.

Was it the crappy mid-level lapse rates? Was it the high CIN I posted above?

(I'm not talking about any part of MA here, I'm talking about southeastern NY / western CT where expectations were reasonably high)

Crappy ML lapse rates are almost a huge caution flag in SNE as we rarely have good enough parameters to offset it like they can sometimes do further W. It was a problem in the 6/6/10 event and I think it was likely a problem today....especially when it became evident that most of us outside of far SW areas weren't going to generate much sfc instability.

I believe Ekster contributed to a recent study (or at least often referenced it) on high-end SNE severe events (>1.5" hail, >70 kts, EF2 tor or greater) and almost all of them featured high ML lapse rates because of an EML or remnant EML.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
ChrisM

ChrisM

Posted
Posted

Well I'm back home. I guess it didn't go much different than thought...PA etc got it decently, however even there it wasn't really high end. I made it down to the exact front of the bow echo under the shelf cloud and it was a huge waste of time IMO. It was less breezy than some run of the mill winter days lol. I mean it is SNE, and things happen so whatever. The lightning was unbelievable though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Arnold214

Arnold214

Posted
Posted

so the EML was crap

There was no EML invloved in this event whatsoever...at least not up this way. Why do I keep reading this? The mid level lapse rates were weak and was part of the problem in getting these storms to survive to the coast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

An overeaction after June 29th. But it did fool almost every member on the board expecting a historic setup. So it ranks pretty high on the overall bust index.

Exaggeration, very close observance and heightened awareness but overhype did not seem evident on this forum. Discussing potential is what we do.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Wonkis

Wonkis

Posted
Posted

Actually I think the potential is there - it looks like a line of (non-severe) storms is coming off the lakes.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

BELIEVE THERE MAY BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS AS OTHER STORMS

FROM OUT WEST WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE AREA...PERHAPS RIDING ALONG

THE WARM FRONT.

-- End Changed Discussion --

I think it's time for BOX to adjust this.......unfortunatley..

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

Exaggeration, very close observance and heightened awareness but overhype did not seem evident on this forum. Discussing potential is what we do.

Potential was there... I wouldn't really change my forecast in retrospect. There were caution flags that we discussed and those came to fruition.

Number of damage reports throughout SW CT.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted

Crappy ML lapse rates are almost a huge caution flag in SNE as we rarely have good enough parameters to offset it like they can sometimes do further W. It was a problem in the 6/6/10 event and I think it was likely a problem today....especially when it became evident that most of us outside of far SW areas weren't going to generate much sfc instability.

I believe Ekster contributed to a recent study (or at least often referenced it) on high-end SNE severe events (>1.5" hail, >70 kts, EF2 tor or greater) and almost all of them featured high ML lapse rates because of an EML or remnant EML.

thanks will

and thanks for not pounding the "AWT"

plenty of mets / posters in multiple forums up and down the northeast were thrown around by the soundings and radar obs

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

It weakened east of DXR but that doesn't mean the thing was a bust. It was more questionable the further east it got into CT. Mid level lapse rates are part of the issue. I think we kept saying that. Ryan did a good job keeping Kevin in check about nrn ct and that's what happened.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

It weakened east of DXR but that doesn't mean the thing was a bust. It was more questionable the further east it got into CT. Mid level lapse rates are part of the issue. I think we kept saying that. Ryan did a good job keeping Kevin in check about nrn ct and that's what happened.

this.

i don't know how many times it was said in this thread that PA/NY/NNJ/W CT were the target zones today. over and over again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
HM

HM

Posted
Posted

I believe Ekster contributed to a recent study (or at least often referenced it) on high-end SNE severe events (>1.5" hail, >70 kts, EF2 tor or greater) and almost all of them featured high ML lapse rates because of an EML or remnant EML.

This isn't true. In their paper, 7.6% of SIG SVR events had met their EML criteria but the ones that did were largely responsible for causalities. True EML events make up a mere 0.1% of all total severe reports.

There was no EML invloved in this event whatsoever...at least not up this way. Why do I keep reading this? The mid level lapse rates were weak and was part of the problem in getting these storms to survive to the coast.

The mid level lapse rates were a problem but I think the issue has to do with the poor calculating of forward speed. Remember the predicted / expected time frame of this on the NWP? There wasn't enough time to advect in the proper atmosphere.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

thanks will

and thanks for not pounding the "AWT"

plenty of mets / posters in multiple forums up and down the northeast were thrown around by the soundings and radar obs

Ekster in timely fashion basically answered the same thing about the ML lapse rates.

The NAM really sucked in this...it had what was left of the EML from well west trying to get into SW CT up until this morning then it backed off....it had ML lapse rates for DXR around 8 C/km yesterday/last night but then chopped about 2C off of it in 2 runs. That was a big red flag this morning...even out to the west, they never really materialized. I'm not even sure exactly what the reason was...whether it was trying to force an unraveling EML way too far east through PA/NY/CT, or if it just over-estimated the LRs in the first place.

Last year, we saw them ramp up on all guidance and never really back off and the remnant EML was much thicker in the soundings too so it was much easier to track the progress of it from RAOB to RAOB sounding ...in addition we got very solid sfc destabilzation too ahead of the pre-frontal trough.

You can still get decent severe without the good ML lapse rates, but you need really impressive sfc instability and some storms forming a good cold pool to tap into that instability...at least that seems to be the most common way to get it for us...ala 6/10/08.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted

this.

i don't know how many times it was said in this thread that PA/NY/NNJ/W CT were the target zones today. over and over again.

I haven't see anyone calling bust outside of those target areas...

Kevin and other chasers drove to near Danbury CT. The obs there were pretty unimpressive.

Go through the forums for eastern PA / northern NJ / NYC / southeastern NY... lots of unimpressive and disappointing obs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
NECT

NECT

Posted
Posted

Getting some good lightening and thunder the past 10 minutes as the line approaches me. It's not often you get some good thunder echoing off the hillsides. I wouldn't call this a bust.

Nor would I. This was forecast to be potentially nasty west of the CT River Valley. Besides the KFS ;-)

, there was not a lot of support for severe in these parts. Western CT came close, as was forecast. The problem is that when there is significant potential for severe wx, many people interpret that as a forecast for severe wx. There's a difference.

Bit of lightning and thunder in these parts, but not much on the radar.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Nor would I. This was forecast to be potentially nasty west of the CT River Valley. Besides the KFS ;-)

, there was not a lot of support for severe in these parts. Western CT came close, as was forecast. The problem is that when there is significant potential for severe wx, many people interpret that as a forecast for severe wx. There's a difference.

Bit of lightning and thunder in these parts, but not much on the radar.

Rolling thunder and lightning here. Lots of folks bitching on FB about the weather cut ins from CBS NBC

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...