Typhoon Tip Posted July 27, 2012 Author Share Posted July 27, 2012 In post-mortem on the event... It seems clear to me that the mid level winds being W to even WNW was precluding the warm boundary from penetrating sufficiently far N to where better CAPE air could nexus with jet mechanics. One evidence of this was that a 2ndary warm front evolved along the PA/NY border and I don't think it mere coincidence that the ignition of the original cluster took place along the western end of this warm frontogenesis. Btw, I don't think there is much chance at verifying a flood watch, but we'll see if the overnight thermal fields cause some back building or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmj16725 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Some good CG lightning here and gusty winds - but pretty run of the mill. Not surprised since indices were fringy in the neck of the woods, but was expecting some nastier reports from DXR down into NJ where they seemed to have a decent setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloudsncontrails Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Although it wasn't as bad as I expected, the clouds were awesome, very dark and the lightning show was very intense. Other than that I didn't see too much. Then again it looked as of I was on the northern tip, I'm sure it was worse in the middle and southern ends of the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Non event here... I was up in the Central Dacks, but I heard the huge amount of hype on ALB media. People probably won't believe it next time. OVC and muggy, but not especially warm when I got home a couple hours ago. OVC and 74 now. I could see that. I'm not sure how the multiple rounds works out tonight. Iffy on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 got to waterbury for some dinner, lightning was/is intense, everything else pretty meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Just saw sick sheet lightning and it's purple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Whole lotta meh....I'm going home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Non event here... I was up in the Central Dacks, but I heard the huge amount of hype on ALB media. People probably won't believe it next time. OVC and muggy, but not especially warm when I got home a couple hours ago. OVC and 74 now. And everywhere else. Very few 58mph+ gust in the warnings or moderate risk area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 leaf down on the corner of granville and rte 1 here in fairfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 SPRINKLES!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 overall not shocked by W CT lack of high end SVR but i don't see much high end SVR for new jersey which is shocking to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Just getting a few rumbles of thunder here but it was overhyped by the local media and the NWS flood watch probably will screw us from getting any appreciable rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Is warning needed for New London County?, just came out. Says history of damaging winds, was there damage in CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 willl and scooter with caution flags up FTW That was the rest of SNE outside of sw areas, but I thought DXR would do better. MA never had a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 I always say if you expect nothing, then what you get is better than nothing. I'm hoping for some rain here....anything more would be a bonus. Radar looks like we'll get some but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 That was the rest of SNE outside of sw areas, but I thought DXR would do better. MA never had a shot. ya i think everyone did including the SPC folks don't see many 58 plus winds as poster mentioned not even in Jersey really? i was mostly joking about you and will FTW thou you guys are great. everyone here appreciates all the input from all the mets in this thread ALOT! i'm just interested to see what caused the storms to not be that damaging in lower hudson valley. or were they Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 the line produced widespread 50mph+ gusts across parts of PA and S NYS...just because it fizzled in W CT doesn't mean it was a bust. that was a pretty decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 the low EML probably didn't help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OXC Weather Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Watching the cloud "spaceship" (as my daughter called it) overtake us was the highlight of the storm for me. Otherwise, out here in Middlebury, a rather mundane experience - some gusty (35 mph?) winds, vivid lightning and briefly heavy rain. Pulled in everything from the deck for naught. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 And the SPC was close to making the Moderate risk a High risk.... An overeaction after June 29th. But it did fool almost every member on the board expecting a historic setup. So it ranks pretty high on the overall bust index. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Watching the cloud "spaceship" (as my daughter called it) overtake us was the highlight of the storm for me. Otherwise, out here in Middlebury, a rather mundane experience - some gusty (35 mph?) winds, vivid lightning and briefly heavy rain. Pulled in everything from the deck for naught. agreed my girlfriend said the same thing, when we were watching it over take us in newtown after rounding the corner on 84 was the highlight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 the line produced widespread 50mph+ gusts across parts of PA and S NYS...just because it fizzled in W CT doesn't mean it was a bust. that was a pretty decent event. Not bad out there although elevation probably had a little influence in some spots. Still wondering why the severe for New London County went up. I mean velocities etc look like they are rapidly weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 What a strange event... There were skeptics, but maybe not for the reasons that ultimately mattered. We had the 40-50 kts shear. We had healthy Dews in northern PA / southeastern NY / southern CT. We had decent CAPE into southeastern NY and western CT. Sure, we had no isolated cells that fired up in this environment. But... Let's not forget at 4pm, everyone here was very impressed by radar with bowing complex rapidly moving at 50-55kts, with 5000j/kg2 of CAPE between it and northern NJ / NYC / western CT... Let's not forget that SPC almost pulled the trigger on a High Risk. It both looked more impressive than it actually was, and it crapped out. Was it the crappy mid-level lapse rates? Was it the high CIN I posted above? (I'm not talking about any part of MA here, I'm talking about southeastern NY / western CT where expectations were reasonably high) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 so the EML was crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 the line produced widespread 50mph+ gusts across parts of PA and S NYS...just because it fizzled in W CT doesn't mean it was a bust. that was a pretty decent event. Yeah widespread wind damage across a large portion of PA into W CT. The areas that got hit the hardest were the ones we've been targeting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Storm was a total bust here in Westchester...we didn't have much but some moderate rain and a few rumbles of thunder. I think the low lapse rates may have caused the storms to weaken, and the coastal areas often seem to perform poorly on long-track storms originating in NW PA/Upstate NY as the line inevitably weakens as it leaves the mountains. NYC metro tends to perform better when a line flares up more suddenly like in 9/16/2010. We also had a similar homegrown type of flare-up in mid August last year, around the 18th, which dropped over 3" rain here with continuous cloud-to-ground lightning in Dobbs Ferry. I am always hesitant with storms that are strong over the mountains in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 glad I never had any hope here in BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 the low EML probably didn't help Poor lapse rates and CIN that never was overcome here in SNE kept severe isolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 An overeaction after June 29th. But it did fool almost every member on the board expecting a historic setup. So it ranks pretty high on the overall bust index. I'm sure you could find plenty worse "busts" than this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Derechud WeenieDeflateCON index 10 Wow...looks like CT dodged a bullet too. This looked pretty impressive on radar from afar, but I guess it really wasn't all that exciting. Today's severe weather event was an epic fail. Appreciate all of the obs...keep it up. leaf down on the corner of granville and rte 1 here in fairfield SPRINKLES!! You guys have me cracking up. We've got a little light rain. As I type this, there was a flash of lightning to the SW and a distant rumble. Looking at the radar, that's about all she wrote for this event for here. Glad I had low expectations for mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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