wxsniss Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Awesome... folks, if there's any doubt, Derecho is underway... MCD 604pm MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1613 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0504 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/EASTERN PA TO SOUTHEAST NY/NYC METRO AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 525... VALID 262204Z - 262330Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 525 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH 525 CONTINUES UNTIL 01Z AND SEVERE TSTM WATCH 527 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z. SERIOUS CONCERN EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD SWATHS OF WIND DAMAGE INTO THE EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS WITHIN WATCHES 525/527. ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NY AND ADJACENT PARTS OF EASTERN PA/NORTHERN NJ...WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO STEADILY SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST WITH A FAST-MOVING SEVERE MCS/DERECHO. DISCUSSION...WELL-ORGANIZED QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /QLCS/ CONTINUES TO STEADILY PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...FROM NEAR THE SOUTHEAST NY/NORTHEAST PA BORDER VICINITY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL PA...WITH THE FASTEST-MOVING BOWING /NORTHEASTERN/ PORTION OF THE LINE MOVING AS FAST AS 45-50 KT. LATEST SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS REFLECTS A PRESSURE FALL-RISE COUPLET...WITH MODEST QLCS-LEADING PRESSURE FALLS...AND A 20-25 DEG F COLD POOL ALONG WITH 3 MB/2 HR PRESSURE RISES ACROSS PA IN THE TRAILING STRATIFORM WAKE REGION OF THE QLCS. COINCIDENT WITH A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF MEAN FLOW OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...LATEST WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM STATE COLLEGE IS INDICATIVE OF 50 KT WINDS BETWEEN 2-6 KM IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE QLCS WAKE REGION. WITH ADDITIONAL FORWARD PROPAGATION/ACCELERATION AND RESULTANT BOWING LIKELY...OF FURTHER CONCERN IS THAT THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO STEADILY WARM LATE THIS AFTERNOON /AS OF 21Z/ IN TANDEM WITH CLOUD-FREE SKIES AND THE NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF A WARM FRONT TOWARD FAR SOUTHEAST NY/NYC METRO AND SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND. THESE THERMODYNAMIC TRENDS...PRESENCE OF THE WARM FRONT...AND EXISTING ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE MCS/COLD POOL SUGGESTS A VERY HEIGHTENED WIND DAMAGE/SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL INTO REMAINING PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NY/NYC METRO/SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT PARTS OF EASTERN PA AND NJ. ..GUYER.. 07/26/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 derecho derecho derecho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 That thing is going to absolutely hammer NJ and the NYC metro...I seriously hope everyone is prepared for the wallop it's going to uppercut right into the city's jaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I wonder how this overnight thing works out. Sometimes models are too bullish with all these crazy multiple rounds of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 derecho derecho derecho you see the MCD posted above? you drop the D word on the air? that bow complex headed your way is incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 derecho derecho derecho It's basically AWT. SW CT into NJ. Joe maybe has best derecho ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 2 major metro areas getting derechos in 1 year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 derecho derecho derecho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 It's basically AWT. SW CT into NJ. Joe maybe has best derecho ever? yep...jugs...mugs...beer...firepit...damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 It's basically AWT. SW CT into NJ. Joe maybe has best derecho ever? already posted BDE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The stuff up north is probably some elevated convection out ahead of the warm front. Looks like we're going to miss out on this event save for some anvil type rains since the warm front is probably just shy of our area. It's rather diffuse at this point so it's hard to tell exactly where it is. The CAPE is not too good up this way compared to the lower and middle Hudson Valley. We've been getting screwed north and south in recent weeks as lot of our rain and severe weather in recent weeks has either been in VT or CT. C'est la vie. Indeed--well, at least I can remain hopeful for additional rain, and maybe some good light shows later on tonight. I wonder how this overnight thing works out. Sometimes models are too bullish with all these crazy multiple rounds of storms. See Mitch's comments above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Indeed--well, at least I can remain hopeful for additional rain, and maybe some good light shows later on tonight. See Mitch's comments above. If happens a lot. This might have the best dynamics in a while, but just unsure how multiple rounds work out in a widespread area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Continued push of theta-e air into CT is really starting to advect in those stronger instability values! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 86/73 dead calm cirrus sliding east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Seems like a lot of people think it's only SW CT mostly that will get ripped, but I think I'll have a pretty good show in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Continued push of theta-e air into CT is really starting to advect in those stronger instability values! Agreed. It does look like the "just in time" instability has begun to arrive... Just in time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 2 major metro areas getting derechos in 1 year... Don't forget Philly in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Seems like a lot of people think it's only SW CT mostly that will get ripped, but I think I'll have a pretty good show in a bit. Well the best area isn't always the only area as we said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Continued push of theta-e air into CT is really starting to advect in those stronger instability values! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 45 knots mpo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Well the best area isn't always the only area as we said. I don't know if I should drive south, I feel like I'm cheating myself out of awesomeness by sitting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I don't know if I should drive south, I feel like I'm cheating myself out of awesomeness by sitting here. I would...that bow looks sick heading towards BDR. Does HFD north and east see any of that line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I would...that bow looks sick heading towards BDR. Does HFD north and east see any of that line? I can be in waterbury in 20 minutes, I feel like that might not be a terrible spot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 GR2 FTL. Unfortunately my feed isn't working... looks like it's down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 You can see advancing shelf on Dave Lewison's stream: http://content.wdtin...C=20643&O=10548 Edit: well, you could, for a few minutes there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 getting on route 8 south now going to head towards DXR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I can be in waterbury in 20 minutes, I feel like that might not be a terrible spot... i'd hit the road pronto and i'd be prepared to go a touch by waterbury if necessary u have about 35 min to get there i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Seeing some decent TCU building off to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I can be in waterbury in 20 minutes, I feel like that might not be a terrible spot... I would...I dunno that thing is trending SE. HFD area may escape without much fan fare unless that northern end extends a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Does that TOR warned cell hold together to the CT Line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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