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Severe weather thread number ...I think X ?


Typhoon Tip

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This thing should go to town as it gets into the Hudson Valley...beautiful axis of high CAPE (21z SPC mesoanalysis).

I'd bet it will increase in strength quite dramatically as it hits that area of high CAPE and then sustain to the CT border and maybe even west toward here. I fully expect a 60+ gust tonight...maybe we touch 80?

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I have family in North Haven -- should I be worried about them getting severe weather? They got hit pretty hard on Tuesday.

I would give them a heads up. Looks like about 2 hours from now give or take a half hour. They may be in a good spot.

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less than 100 miles between that impressive bow southeast of BGM and CT border... multiple TOR warnings on it and seems to be accelerating, 35-50 knot speeds...

entering an area of higher CAPE

hard to see how this does not have a big impact (widespread damaging winds, ongoing TOR warnings) in western CT by 7:30pm

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less than 100 miles between that impressive bow southeast of BGM and CT border... multiple TOR warnings on it and seems to be accelerating, 35-50 knot speeds...

entering an area of higher CAPE

hard to see how this does not have a big impact (widespread damaging winds, ongoing TOR warnings) in western CT by 7:30pm

I just hope to god it can get here before dark...I kind of hate nocturnal severe haha

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0-8km shear values across CT AOA 50 knots or so with BRN shear ~60 knots or so...0-3 and 0-1 helicity kind of lacking right now but looks to increase. Doesn't look like we will see any discrete development ahead of the line...still some CIN but certainly should see some rotating mesos embedded within the line as it enters the western half of the state.

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At the juncture temp increase, minor shifts in the wf don't really matter all that much, line is already set. Not terribly hard to project out two hours and know where it ends up.

The issue is getting enough high theta-e air ahead of the line in CT. The instability wanes as you head east of the NY/CT border.

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At the juncture temp increase, minor shifts in the wf don't really matter all that much, line is already set. Not terribly hard to project out two hours and know where it ends up.

yep.. but remember my 99.9% stat. :P discrete stuff was a bit of a dream given guidance.. awesome parameters dont equal supercells.

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The issue is getting enough high theta-e air ahead of the line in CT. The instability wanes as you head east of the NY/CT border.

yeah cape falls off a cliff east of the border.. kinda surprising, though i havent followed much today

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Interesting to see the development to the area NW of Albany between the northern NY are and the southern tier line. I wonder what's going to go on with that with respect to the areas above/below it.

The stuff up north is probably some elevated convection out ahead of the warm front.

Looks like we're going to miss out on this event save for some anvil type rains since the warm front is probably just shy of our area. It's rather diffuse at this point so it's hard to tell exactly where it is. The CAPE is not too good up this way compared to the lower and middle Hudson Valley.

We've been getting screwed north and south in recent weeks as lot of our rain and severe weather in recent weeks has either been in VT or CT. C'est la vie.

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