bboughton Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I have family in North Haven -- should I be worried about them getting severe weather? They got hit pretty hard on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 This thing should go to town as it gets into the Hudson Valley...beautiful axis of high CAPE (21z SPC mesoanalysis). I'd bet it will increase in strength quite dramatically as it hits that area of high CAPE and then sustain to the CT border and maybe even west toward here. I fully expect a 60+ gust tonight...maybe we touch 80? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 These Dcape values are about as impressive as you'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Ya think? Awesome times ahead for you guys from a met standpoint--hopefully not from a property one! My parents just bought a $1500 generator that can basically power the whole house. Winning lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I have family in North Haven -- should I be worried about them getting severe weather? They got hit pretty hard on Tuesday. I would give them a heads up. Looks like about 2 hours from now give or take a half hour. They may be in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 less than 100 miles between that impressive bow southeast of BGM and CT border... multiple TOR warnings on it and seems to be accelerating, 35-50 knot speeds... entering an area of higher CAPE hard to see how this does not have a big impact (widespread damaging winds, ongoing TOR warnings) in western CT by 7:30pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 That is a sick line heading into Sullivan County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 less than 100 miles between that impressive bow southeast of BGM and CT border... multiple TOR warnings on it and seems to be accelerating, 35-50 knot speeds... entering an area of higher CAPE hard to see how this does not have a big impact (widespread damaging winds, ongoing TOR warnings) in western CT by 7:30pm I just hope to god it can get here before dark...I kind of hate nocturnal severe haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 My temp is continuing to climb--surprised that that's the case at 5:30p.m. Things must be really juiced for down below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 SHould we expect the N part of that line to expand or is that the N ward extent now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Looks like we'll tug some higher theta-e air up the CT River Valley next hour or so with bright sun as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 SHould we expect the N part of that line to expand or is that the N ward extent now? Should stay as is. Wouldn't expect much in Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Should stay as is. Wouldn't expect much in Mass. Looks like W?F is N of HFD now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Ryan, I texted you. Not sure if you're going to chase or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Ryan, I texted you. Not sure if you're going to chase or not. workin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 0-8km shear values across CT AOA 50 knots or so with BRN shear ~60 knots or so...0-3 and 0-1 helicity kind of lacking right now but looks to increase. Doesn't look like we will see any discrete development ahead of the line...still some CIN but certainly should see some rotating mesos embedded within the line as it enters the western half of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Interesting to see the development to the area NW of Albany between the northern NY are and the southern tier line. I wonder what's going to go on with that with respect to the areas above/below it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 86/71 winds have gone dead calm after a refreshing sw wind all day. Sit back and enjoy the ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Looks like W?F is N of HFD now Kevin--if my temp's continuing to climb, would that suggest the front is well north of there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 workin put me on the air via phone when this thing is hitting. I want the whole state to hear me scream like a girl before I die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 TOR Warnings now on CT's doorstep. Always show or place here when it comes to severe. Good-luck and be safe in area's about to get bombed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 At the juncture temp increase, minor shifts in the wf don't really matter all that much, line is already set. Not terribly hard to project out two hours and know where it ends up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Wow... these reports are extremely impressive... < 90 minutes from CT border 07/26/2012 0440 PM Endicott, Broome County. Thunderstorm wind gust e58 mph, reported by trained spotter. Continued 55-60 mph for 10 minutes. Also dime sized hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 40 knots AVP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 At the juncture temp increase, minor shifts in the wf don't really matter all that much, line is already set. Not terribly hard to project out two hours and know where it ends up. The issue is getting enough high theta-e air ahead of the line in CT. The instability wanes as you head east of the NY/CT border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 At the juncture temp increase, minor shifts in the wf don't really matter all that much, line is already set. Not terribly hard to project out two hours and know where it ends up. yep.. but remember my 99.9% stat. discrete stuff was a bit of a dream given guidance.. awesome parameters dont equal supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The issue is getting enough high theta-e air ahead of the line in CT. The instability wanes as you head east of the NY/CT border. yeah cape falls off a cliff east of the border.. kinda surprising, though i havent followed much today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 lol...CAPE and 10m, 850 and 500h winds. damn. Hudson Valley, W.CT, N.NJ....wow. Hopefully that stuff doesn't fall apart as it gets past the CT River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 leading edge of bow traveling 50+ knots now, will be at CT border by 7pm and this... passed on from NYC thread, extremely impressive picture courtesy of Superstorm93: Amazing. Bowing segments and 5000j/kg2 of CAPE (Purple) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Interesting to see the development to the area NW of Albany between the northern NY are and the southern tier line. I wonder what's going to go on with that with respect to the areas above/below it. The stuff up north is probably some elevated convection out ahead of the warm front. Looks like we're going to miss out on this event save for some anvil type rains since the warm front is probably just shy of our area. It's rather diffuse at this point so it's hard to tell exactly where it is. The CAPE is not too good up this way compared to the lower and middle Hudson Valley. We've been getting screwed north and south in recent weeks as lot of our rain and severe weather in recent weeks has either been in VT or CT. C'est la vie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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