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Severe weather thread number ...I think X ?


Typhoon Tip

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From the NYC Thread:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY

411 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0358 PM TORNADO ELMIRA 42.09N 76.81W

07/26/2012 CHEMUNG NY EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN... NUMEROUS ROOFS OFF BUILDINGS...

PEOPLE TRAPPED IN VEHICLES

Cell was TOR warned.

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Wow

...OH TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...

ADJUSTED MODERATE RISK TO ALONG AND AHEAD OF INITIAL QLCS IN SWRN NY

TO ERN OH AND UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING BACK IN WRN OH.

ALTHOUGH SEVERE WIND GUSTS HAVE YET TO BE MEASURED BY ANY ASOS/AWOS

OBSERVATIONS...50-55 KT EWD MOVEMENT HAS BEEN NOTED WITH THIS

INITIAL LINE AND 18Z PIT/OKX RAOBS ARE CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF FAST

ELY PROPAGATION. CONSIDERED UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK BUT RELATIVELY

MODEST MID/HIGH-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED IN REGIONAL 18Z RAOBS

SUGGEST MODERATE RISK APPEARS MOST APPROPRIATE ATTM.

NEVERTHELESS...NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF DAMAGING WINDS IS

LIKELY AS THE NUMBER OF BOWING SEGMENTS INCREASE WITH AN ASSOCIATED

THREAT OF ISOLATED INTENSE WIND DAMAGE AND BRIEF TORNADOES.

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Note: time sensitive image, because I haven't completely figured out how to upload and display stuff yet...

The way which works for me is to save the file to my computer then use the Attach Files function. Choose then Attach the file and Bob's your uncle.

post-1533-0-47740900-1343334234_thumb.gi

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What that says without saying it is derecho..wow..that is strong wording and something we never see in New Eng

They did say derecho up top

...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT/POTENTIAL DERECHO APPEAR TO BE

UNFOLDING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...

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The way which works for me is to save the file to my computer then use the Attach Files function. Choose then Attach the file and Bob's your uncle.

Thanks, I haven't taken the time to fool with that option yet...Guess I should, it seems simple enough. As for the boundary, I believe it's what an earlier SPC outlook referred to as a "differential heating line". I think.

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Historic night folks

4 PM UPDATE...WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER CENTRAL NY AND

WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

EXPECT WARM FRONT TO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SNE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

DUE TO POTENT MOIST LAYER...COMBINED WITH THE LIFT OF THE WARM

FRONT...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. CLOUDS HAVE

BROKEN UP ACROSS PA...NY...AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND

SOME HEATING HAS TAKEN PLACE. MANY MESOSCALE PARAMETERS FAVORABLE FOR

SEVERE WEATHER ARE LINING UP ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MASS AROUND 21Z

TO 00Z. INITIAL THINKING IS THAT STORMS WILL FIRE ALONG THE WARM

FRONT ACROSS CT WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOST UNSTABLE. THESE

STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AND DISCRETE AS THERE IS SOME TURNING IN

THE LOW LEVELS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE NEAR 50KTS COMBINED WITH

OVER 2000 J/KG OF CAPE...STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO UPHOLD ANY

UPDRAFTS ALLOWING FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE MAIN

THREAT. ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS HELICITY VALUES

ARE NEAR 300. BY THE EVENING HOURS EXPECT MAIN MODE OF STORMS TO

BE MORE LINEAR WITH POSSIBLE BOWING SEGMENTS AS 850MB JET BEGINS

TO INCREASE ACROSS SNE. EXPECT STORMS TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE

REST OF SNE TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH

FLASH FLOODING.

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Looking at a radar loop of the rotation that caused the Elmira tornado, it's pretty broad. I think it could turn into a possibly long-lived bookend-type vortex, it's at the classic position on the northern end of a strong line. If so, that kind of vortex could conceivably continue to drop tornadoes for quite a while as it steamrolls across SNE... It's happened before.

Edit: I see others are thinking along the same lines.

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