Mr Torchey Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Breaking out into mostly sunny skies 85/71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Yeah warm front probably going through the state. Still west of OKX and south of ALB at 18z when those balloons were launched. Could we see anything fire on that as it rockets northeast thru the state? Any discrete stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 going mostly sunny here now as the front passes overhead with no fanfare at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Isolated cell firing near Lock Haven. Watch this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Could we see anything fire on that as it rockets northeast thru the state? Any discrete stuff? No. Too much CIN. Even when warm front passes still need some diabatic heating to eliminate CIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Could we see anything fire on that as it rockets northeast thru the state? Any discrete stuff? Depends. I think it's a race between the warm front passing through and how much sunlight the ground can soak up. The sat shows some clouds popping up but it'll be a tight squeeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 No. Too much CIN. Even when warm front passes still need some diabatic heating to eliminate CIN. ^^^ that as well lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 78/65 here at the house. Hopefully better storms later on, down near rt 3/495. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 SWCT NYC NJ under the gun from this line it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eire015 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1608 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0237 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OH...NERN KY...WV...PA...SERN NY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...NJ. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 524... VALID 261937Z - 262130Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 524 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...CONTINUE WW ALONG/AHEAD OF STG-SVR TSTMS NOW OVER NRN/WRN PORTIONS. NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON...DOWNSHEAR FOR ERN PA EWD TOWARD SWRN NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND INCLUDING NYC METRO AREA. DISCUSSION...INCREASINGLY WELL-ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE...WITH EMBEDDED BOW/LEWP SEGMENTS...WAS EVIDENT AT 1930Z FROM STEUBEN COUNTY NY SWWD TO COLUMBIANA COUNTY OH...BECOMING MORE BKN SWWD OVER SERN OH. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES MOVING EWD 40-50 KT...WITH LOCAL VARIATIONS AS COLD-POOL SURGES OCCUR...AND WILL MOVE INTO FAVORABLY UNSTABLE/BUOYANT AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN PA AND EVENTUALLY EWD TO SRN NEW ENGLAND. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WHILE CINH INCREASES WITH EWD EXTENT...PER 18Z RAOBS. HOWEVER...STG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING IS FCST...WITH LOW-LEVEL WLYS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO CAPE THROUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION/TRANSPORT. AS SUCH...FAVORABLE AIR MASS WILL SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD OVER CT/RI/LONG ISLAND. THIS CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN BENEATH SRN RIM OF STRONGEST MIDLEVEL WINDS...CONTRIBUTING TO EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 40-50 KT. DIFFUSE SFC WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD OVER ERN/NRN PA INTO SERN NY. NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SHOULD CONTINUE...BUT WITH SLGT VEERING IN LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL INVOF WARM FRONT. ..EDWARDS.. 07/26/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 SWCT NYC NJ under the gun from this line it seems I expect the line to expand north. The atmosphere is going to rapidly destabilize for sfc based parcels as for north as Albany with warm front racing north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 86/74 here after the WF has gone through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 bad time for KCCX to be down... let's see what this little discrete cell popping up south of Williamsport can do before it gets swallowed by the line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 This is it folks , the real deal, gonna be a wild night for us, enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 There goes the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for much of Western MA and CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The better dewpoints are starting to make more progress into CT/RI now...which is good for trying to maintain the storms because the ML lapse rates are pretty lousy and we can't really count on those for help. We'll have to see how far north they get as the evening wears on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 There goes the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for much of Western MA and CT I wouldn't rule anything out quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 What do you guys make of the apparent boundary along the Hudson? Not oriented right for WF, which we've identified as elsewhere anyway, so what is it? Seems like more than just the usual river valley effect, is this an OFB? Shows up best here: Note: time sensitive image, because I haven't completely figured out how to upload and display stuff yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Looks like some pretty defined Bows on the line in PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I wouldn't rule anything out quite yet. No I meant the watch was just issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 There goes the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for much of Western MA and CT Likelihood of 65 kt+ Wind: "High" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Likelihood of 65 kt+ Wind: "High" WWUS40 KWNS 262000 WWP7 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WS 0527 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012 WS 0527 PROBABILITY TABLE: PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 20% PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 10% PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : >95% PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 70% PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 40% PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 20% PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95% && ATTRIBUTE TABLE: MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.0 MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 70 MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500 MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 27045 PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO && FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU7. $$ As an aside, 90%+ chances haven't always worked out for us in the past... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The better dewpoints are starting to make more progress into CT/RI now...which is good for trying to maintain the storms because the ML lapse rates are pretty lousy and we can't really count on those for help. We'll have to see how far north they get as the evening wears on. 90/74 on south shore of long island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 SWCT NYC NJ under the gun from this line it seems Sure does. I expect the line to expand north. The atmosphere is going to rapidly destabilize for sfc based parcels as for north as Albany with warm front racing north. Awesome. There goes the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for much of Western MA and CT I typicallly cringe when I'm on the edge of a watch zone. But, when the adjacent ones 8 miles and 12 miles away have a tornado watch, I take comfort. Good luck everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 "CONSIDERED UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK BUT RELATIVELY MODEST MID/HIGH-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED IN REGIONAL 18Z RAOBS SUGGEST MODERATE RISK APPEARS MOST APPROPRIATE ATTM." Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Hmmm... OH TO SRN NEW ENGLAND ADJUSTED MODERATE RISK TO ALONG AND AHEAD OF INITIAL QLCS IN SWRN NY TO ERN OH AND UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING BACK IN WRN OH. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WIND GUSTS HAVE YET TO BE MEASURED BY ANY ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS...50-55 KT EWD MOVEMENT HAS BEEN NOTED WITH THIS INITIAL LINE AND 18Z PIT/OKX RAOBS ARE CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF FAST ELY PROPAGATION. CONSIDERED UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK BUT RELATIVELY MODEST MID/HIGH-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED IN REGIONAL 18Z RAOBS SUGGEST MODERATE RISK APPEARS MOST APPROPRIATE ATTM. NEVERTHELESS...NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF DAMAGING WINDS IS LIKELY AS THE NUMBER OF BOWING SEGMENTS INCREASE WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT OF ISOLATED INTENSE WIND DAMAGE AND BRIEF TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Hmmm... OH TO SRN NEW ENGLAND ADJUSTED MODERATE RISK TO ALONG AND AHEAD OF INITIAL QLCS IN SWRN NY TO ERN OH AND UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING BACK IN WRN OH. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WIND GUSTS HAVE YET TO BE MEASURED BY ANY ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS...50-55 KT EWD MOVEMENT HAS BEEN NOTED WITH THIS INITIAL LINE AND 18Z PIT/OKX RAOBS ARE CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF FAST ELY PROPAGATION. CONSIDERED UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK BUT RELATIVELY MODEST MID/HIGH-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED IN REGIONAL 18Z RAOBS SUGGEST MODERATE RISK APPEARS MOST APPROPRIATE ATTM. NEVERTHELESS...NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF DAMAGING WINDS IS LIKELY AS THE NUMBER OF BOWING SEGMENTS INCREASE WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT OF ISOLATED INTENSE WIND DAMAGE AND BRIEF TORNADOES. 50-55 knot eastward progression? Zoinks--any sense of reference for what is more typical? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 My jaw dropped when I saw that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 expanded tornado risk area big time: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 expanded tornado risk area big time: Interesting seeing areas in 5% tornado being 'slight risked' on severe. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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