CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 We should see that expanded east to at least Ri by 4:00 or 5:00 pm I doubt that actually. I bet there will be a blue box south and east of the current tornado watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 wxsniss not sure that is a great map for dew points PVD reporting 70DP last hour. most in the Bos metro West and south area are in the 66-67 range and rising a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 We should see that expanded east to at least Ri by 4:00 or 5:00 pm And if not? Can I get a refund? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I doubt that actually. I bet there will be a blue box south and east of the current tornado watch. One or the other yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I've been in a lake all day with camp...no idea what's going on. See I have a tor watch at home. Any page to go to for the latest analysis? On mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I've been in a lake all day with camp...no idea what's going on. See I have a tor watch at home. Any page to go to for the latest analysis? On mobile. Try this: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/35751-frankies-winter-outlook-2012-2013/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Is that the actual warm front rocketing northeast near NYC? You can see a clearly defined band of clouds racing NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Is that the actual warm front rocketing northeast near NYC? You can see a clearly defined band of clouds racing NE Judging by current obs, it could be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 i would say yes blizz...it at least matches up where the nhc.noaa.gov NW atlantic loop has it currently http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 some rear inflow notches showing up in NW PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Berkshire County included in the tornado watch even though I think the best conditions for tornadic supercells will be off to the SW. Regardless, I guess SPC thinks we're close enough to the trouble zone that it warranted including us in the watch box. Sometimes storms can migrate a bit away from the area of most favorable conditions, hence our being included in the watch. Still some leftover clouds, but dew points have risen steadily over the past few hours. Can really feel the more humid air now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Is that the actual warm front rocketing northeast near NYC? You can see a clearly defined band of clouds racing NE great observation matches well with the boundary between DPs 66-68 to the north and 71-75 to the south (though as cpick noted, DPs in 70-72 already entered south coast of SNE) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 will be down near your hood tonight, awaiting the distant lightning strike and lone rumble of thunder that knocks out power to Wilmington. LOL Hey, I've seen hail twice this year....my severe quote for the next decade has been met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 first TOR-warned cell in western PA along I-80: The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a * Tornado Warning for... northern Clarion County in west central Pennsylvania... southern Forest County in northwest Pennsylvania... northern Jefferson County in west central Pennsylvania... southern Venango County in northwest Pennsylvania... * until 315 PM EDT * at 221 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado near Kennerdell... moving east at 45 mph. * Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to Kennerdell... Franklin... Clintonville... Emlenton... Seneca... Van... Knox... Fryburg... Clarion... Limestone... Cook Forest State Park... Summerville... This will impact the following Highway... I-80 between mile markers 32 and 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 warm front penetrates! I'd look for scattered discrete cells popping off ahead of that linear gig in western PA/NY... those would develop in a shear saturated environment and [probably] very quickly gain mesos should they develop. Sat shows that warm sector and clearing is coinciding now with deep shear as feared, so this could get ugly after all. Interesting afternoon of observance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 ya 2 bad state college radar is down ...but they have technicians on the way lol . blind on a day of memorable severe for PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 How far north does the warm front make it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I got discrete cells forming ahead of the line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I got discrete cells forming ahead of the line... yes mostly in PA it seems, around Emporium/St. Mary's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Yeah I see that too, would want to see them a little further ahead of the line though. If they can strengthen and stay ahead, it could get interesting. We shall see. Seeing a hint of something near Lock Haven as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Still clouded over pretty damn bad here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Pulling out all the stops here. Three computers, 9 software packages running simultaniously. A weenies nervna. BOMBS AWAY! Sure is (going to get) getting ugly fast with some staying power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Mike Smith gave an excellent presentation at AMWX conference 1 about gravity wave cloud correlation with severe tornadic storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Still clouded over pretty damn bad here Same thing here, pretty solid overcast with a few sunny breaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Nice low and mid level jets showing up. Lapse rates and CAPE could be better though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Does give a good idea of the type of LL shear we are dealing with here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Nice low and mid level jets showing up. Lapse rates and CAPE could be better though. Very impressive. Warm front is still west of OKX so that is still sorta AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Very impressive. Warm front is still west of OKX so that is still sorta AWT. Isn't that the warm front in SW CT now from the viz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 missed this and hasn't been posted yet: BOX 2pm update: 2 PM update...warm front is currently situated over central PA and will continue to lift northeastward over the next several hours. Expect warm front to begin to move into New York state over the next few hours and into southern New England approx 4 to 5 PM. Due to potent moist layer...combined with the lift of the warm front...strong to severe thunderstorms are likely. Clouds have already started to break up across PA...NY...and western mass and believe this trend will continue over the next several hours. Many mesoscale parameters favorable for severe weather are lining up across CT and western mass around 21z to 00z. Initial thinking is that storms will fire along the warm front across CT where the atmosphere is most unstable. These storms will be isolated and discrete as there is some turning in the low levels. 0-6km bulk shear will be near 50kts combined with over 2000 j/kg of cape...storms will be able to uphold any updrafts allowing for large hail and damaging winds to be the main threat. Isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out as helicity values are near 300. By the evening hours expect main Mode of storms to be more linear with possible bowing segments as 850mb jet begins to increase across southern New England. Expect storms to move eastward across the rest of southern New England tonight with damaging winds the main threat along with flash flooding. Believe there may be several rounds of storms as other storms from out west will also move into the area...perhaps riding along the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Isn't that the warm front in SW CT now from the viz? Yeah warm front probably going through the state. Still west of OKX and south of ALB at 18z when those balloons were launched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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