free_man Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 dew creeping up, 75/64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 i think Se mass is in the game more than bos but both areas need to watch for a line /bow echo of storms to race thru toward 9-1am where there will be embedded svr yeap, that is what I'm watching. gla Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1603 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL/ERN NY...WRN NEW ENGLAND...NERN PA. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 261750Z - 261945Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...BAND OF TSTMS INTENSIFYING OVER NRN PORTIONS WW 524...AND MOVING EWD ABOUT 40 KT...WILL CONTINUE TO POSE SVR THREAT FARTHER E ACROSS THIS AREA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND EVEN N OF WARM FRONT AS WELL. MAIN THREAT IS SVR GUSTS...THOUGH SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL ALSO ARE POSSIBLE AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. DISCUSSION...17Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED WARM FRONT OVER NWRN...CENTRAL AND SERN PA...BECOMING SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE IN THERMAL FIELDS GIVEN STG SFC DIABATIC HEATING OCCURRING ON BOTH SIDES. IN FACT...AIR MASS N OF WARM FRONT HAS BECOME MINIMALLY CAPPED...WITH SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S AND TEMPS LOW 80S F CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE IN 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS SHOULD INCREASE TO 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE BEFORE ARRIVAL OF TSTM BAND. MLCINH WILL ERODE FROM W-E ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR DUE TO COMBINATION OF DIABATIC HEATING AND MOIST ADVECTION...RENDERING AREAS FROM HUDSON VALLEY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND FAVORABLY UNSTABLE PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE ARRIVAL...HOWEVER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MORE STABLE WITH EWD EXTENT FROM THERE. GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR...HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LARGE INVOF SFC WARM FRONT...DESPITE LACK OF APPRECIABLE VEERING WITH HEIGHT. DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AS WELL...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 45-50 KT OVER MOST OF AREA. ..EDWARDS/HART.. 07/26/2012 ..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 lots of BINOVC now. sky cover about 9 tenths. TT 78F/ TD now 64F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Many home wx stations are creeping up to and over 70 dews now..Curently 77/69 here..sunny Pants tent for Dr. Dew? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Doesn't sound like it will be a Tor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I don't know about torcon but the weeniecon index is an 8 in here. Wall of straight-line shafts just leveling everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Would be thrilled with a repeat of last Wednesday here... Last Tuesday night I was in the Adirondacks, and the thunder and lightning (and wind) that were going on there from about 6:30pm till 9:00pm were like I haven't seen in a while. lightning was all around and constant for a few hours. Was amazing stuff. The kind of stuff that Wiz has dreams of on a nightly basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Wall of straight-line shafts just leveling everything. will be down near your hood tonight, awaiting the distant lightning strike and lone rumble of thunder that knocks out power to Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eire015 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Doesn't sound like it will be a Tor Since the main threat is high wind accompanying some type of QLCS, I think a severe thunderstorm watch with enhanced wording for tornadoes in areas with an increased risk for that seems most likely. I am more interested to see if there are any spinups/mesovortices that move through with the line went it goes through later this evening rather than discrete convection in front of it (although it doesn't appear that can be ruled out at this point). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Doesn't sound like it will be a Tor Actually it kind of does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Looks like Tornado watches have been hoisted all the way into SVT, but none for BOX CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIcoastalWX Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 75/70 - ESE breeze. No patches of blue just yet but there has been bright patches overhead in the last 10 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 82/70 partly sunny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 525 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 210 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CONNECTICUT WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA SOUTHERN VERMONT EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL 900 PM EDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ELMIRA NEW YORK TO 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF PITTSFIELD MASSACHUSETTS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 524... DISCUSSION...INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ONE CLUSTER OF ONGOING STORMS OVER WESTERN NY/PA WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. OTHER MORE DISCRETE STORMS MAY FORM ON/NORTH OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL POTENTIALLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 There might be a better shot at meaningful storms in the eastern 1/3rd of NE tomorrow pm than today... That line may struggle to survive east of HFD. Gotta respect those wind fields I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Most of TOR watch is in NY... only one county in MA (Berkshire), one county in CT (Litchfield) and 2 counties in VT (Windham and Bennington) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eire015 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Since the main threat is high wind accompanying some type of QLCS, I think a severe thunderstorm watch with enhanced wording for tornadoes in areas with an increased risk for that seems most likely. I am more interested to see if there are any spinups/mesovortices that move through with the line went it goes through later this evening rather than discrete convection in front of it (although it doesn't appear that can be ruled out at this point). It seems I was mistaken....cool! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Many home wx stations are creeping up to and over 70 dews now..Curently 77/69 here..sunny 83/72 on my davis...putting my insurance company on speed dial Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 WWUS40 KWNS 261809 WWP5 TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0525 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0109 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012 WT 0525 PROBABILITY TABLE: PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 40% PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 20% PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 80% PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 50% PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 40% PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 30% PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 90% && ATTRIBUTE TABLE: MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.0 MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 70 MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500 MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 24035 PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO && FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU5. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eire015 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 WOUS64 KWNS 261806 WOU5 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 525 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 210 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012 TORNADO WATCH 525 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS CTC005-270100- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0525.120726T1810Z-120727T0100Z/ CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LITCHFIELD MAC003-270100- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0525.120726T1810Z-120727T0100Z/ MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE NYC001-007-011-015-017-021-023-025-027-035-039-041-043-053-057- 065-067-077-083-091-093-095-097-099-101-105-107-109-111-113-115- 123-270100- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0525.120726T1810Z-120727T0100Z/ NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY BROOME CAYUGA CHEMUNG CHENANGO COLUMBIA CORTLAND DELAWARE DUTCHESS FULTON GREENE HAMILTON HERKIMER MADISON MONTGOMERY ONEIDA ONONDAGA OTSEGO RENSSELAER SARATOGA SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN SULLIVAN TIOGA TOMPKINS ULSTER WARREN WASHINGTON YATES PAC015-069-079-103-115-127-131-270100- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0525.120726T1810Z-120727T0100Z/ PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADFORD LACKAWANNA LUZERNE PIKE SUSQUEHANNA WAYNE WYOMING VTC003-025-270100- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0525.120726T1810Z-120727T0100Z/ VT . VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNINGTON WINDHAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 How far north the severe threat reaches really depends upon how far north the high CAPE, right theta-e airmass makes it. Probably going to be a particularly sharp north-south cutoff between widespread severe reports and nothing. Need to see how the situation evolves throughout the day, but it's looking right now that that cutoff will be just south of Albany. I'm not seeing much backing of the winds. There is enough mid-level speed shear for a small tornado threat to exist, but certainly not enough LL helicitiy for anything significant, unless perhaps we get some channeling up the Hudson Valley. Time will tell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eire015 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 That area included in the watch seems to be further north than originally thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The key is to watch for surface based convection next 1-2 hours around BGM. w pa and ny are looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Kevin its not just mass pike south. I think it's more sw ct maybe western ct and points sw. Se ny and nrn nj deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiWxWatcher Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Kinda surprised that they went for the tornado watch, but the potential is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 w pa and ny are looking good That region is going to have a "fun" afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 People in metro Boston though. This was always supposed to be NBD... so the vast majority of posters really are out of the game for this one. Hey Ryan, not sure who you're referring to... I am in metro Boston. I've chased on the ground in the plains. Tornadoes draw my attention even if they are in Texas. And, I've lived here long enough to know that when it comes to SNE severe, I consider anything east of the Hudson to be MBY and exciting. For eastern Mass, at best, this was never progged to be more than a spin up off a bow echo much later tonight, and I haven't seen any posters expecting otherwise. Back to obs/discussion. As noted, TDs creeping up along SW Long Island / CT: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 We should see that expanded east to at least Ri by 4:00 or 5:00 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 If anyone cares to look. The vis. satellite depicts the squall line developing and a great demarcation of 70-75Td. Looped you can almost f-forward and envision the "potentially" severe threatened areas in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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