dan11295 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 MDT Risk pushed a bit NE, all the way to ORH w/45% hatched Wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Stop worrying about tornadoes. This is morphing away from a tornado threat and turning into a very dangerous wind threat. Some form of MCC is going to come a rolling through SNE this evening and into the overnight. (with embedded spin ups and damaging winds.) Wind threat in the same area as the diminishing tornado one, though (right?) so they've still got something to look forward to. It's sunny and humid in the N. Berkshires...oh boy. Yup--not so warm yet though. 72.7/65 Time for my lunchtime run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 ALY's sps reads well for those of us removed from the SW instability. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK POSSIBLE TODAY THERE IS A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE REGION OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR VIOLENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE TIME FRAME FOR WHEN THE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST WILL BE FROM AROUND 2 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP...ALONG WITH HUMIDITY SURGING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND BE AWARE OF POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING WEATHER DEVELOPING TODAY. SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Back at home and still cloudy and 76 and breezy. Thought when the sun started to poke out this morning we were off to the races, but the clouds are hanging tough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Sun out in Lowell.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloudsncontrails Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The sun is really starting to break through in E CT. It's warming up quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 MDT Risk pushed a bit NE, all the way to ORH w/45% hatched Wind. I'm sure they'll be just far enough west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Back at home and still cloudy and 76 and breezy. Thought when the sun started to poke out this morning we were off to the races, but the clouds are hanging tough This is definitely going to be a late bloomer if it gets going. Dewpoints are junk right now though...we'll need to wait until that stuff in southern-central PA and OH get in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 For anyone new here, here is the link to the SPCs meso analysis page. http://www.spc.noaa.....php?sector=16# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The sun is really starting to break through in E CT. It's warming up quick. where are you, down in Ledyard cloudy 78/67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 solid clearing in western MA/CT the DPs are slow to rise, the warm front is taking its time... i wonder if the meso low pointed out will shunt the warmfront further south or will have no effect at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Dew points to 70 at the CT Shore and now up the 68+ from DXR-MMK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I was pleasantly suprised by the fact that dews were not all the uncomfy during lunch....I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I don't know about torcon but the weeniecon index is an 8 in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I'm losing interest fast. Clouds still hanging around. Hopefully some breaks will boost temps up a bit more to last us into his evening to help things start. Definitely a late night gig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Sun out in Billerica Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I'm losing interest fast. Clouds still hanging around. Hopefully some breaks will boost temps up a bit more to last us into his evening to help things start. Definitely a late night gig. I think this is more of a sw SNE deal and points sw anyways, but there may be a good complex overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I'm sure they'll be just far enough west. u really feel inferior to orh wx wise jk. Humid and no breaks in cambridge as of yet. But w sun out west of here and in ct gotta hand it to ryan for his earlier call for sundespite the am clkouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I don't know about torcon but the weeniecon index is an 8 in here. Can only imagine if it does not go as potentially predicted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I think this is more of a sw SNE deal and points sw anyways, but there may be a good complex overnight. Yea seems to be , Suny MM5 FWIW really concentrates lots of its rain on Mass SNH. Looking at radar the line approaching Jamestown NY area looks interesting. Should be a fun ride here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Nmind suns out in harvard campus (walkin thru) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Ginx, the sun just popped out in Old Lyme. Starting to see some blue sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Was outside for lunch at work and sun really started coming out. Inside now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I think this is more of a sw SNE deal and points sw anyways, but there may be a good complex overnight. We'd be a lot better off if Kevin wasn't gung ho on this event...last year he called 6/1 a bust the days leading up to it and the day of until storms got going. The problem with today is that two things are currently working against a huge event...ML lapse rates are terrible and dewpoints are not in the 70-73F range on a region wide basis...maybe we can fix the second problem in the next 4-6 hours, but the first issue doesn't look promising at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Can't post it from mobile but someone post the Sig Tor ingredients graphic for 3z from the 9z run...it's nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 We'd be a lot better off if Kevin wasn't gung ho on this event...last year he called 6/1 a bust the days leading up to it and the day of until storms got going. The problem with today is that two things are currently working against a huge event...ML lapse rates are terrible and dewpoints are not in the 70-73F range on a region wide basis...maybe we can fix the second problem in the next 4-6 hours, but the first issue doesn't look promising at the moment. Well unfortunately we have a number of people expecting severe in their backyard where it wasn't really expected. I'm not particularly gung ho for anyone outside of W/C CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Sun on and off...really having a tough time breaking out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 We'd be a lot better off if Kevin wasn't gung ho on this event...last year he called 6/1 a bust the days leading up to it and the day of until storms got going. The problem with today is that two things are currently working against a huge event...ML lapse rates are terrible and dewpoints are not in the 70-73F range on a region wide basis...maybe we can fix the second problem in the next 4-6 hours, but the first issue doesn't look promising at the moment. Looks like mlvl lapse rates steepening a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 77°F/65°F and partly cloudy. Some pretty good clearing here save for some leftover detritus in the mid and upper levels and even that seems to be clearing out a bit. Starting to look better here now. Almost time to raise the weenie flags! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Can't post it from mobile but someone post the Sig Tor ingredients graphic for 3z from the 9z run...it's nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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