HM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Does the evening stuff hit us further in the east or still primarily for you western folk? I think all of CT and SE MA is under the gun. The strengthening wind fields and synoptic aid combined with the theta-e advection (you may be more unstable tonight than this afternoon) will keep the line going overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Agree with extreme violence Not sure why some were so worked up over an 11z sat image lol. Seems sort of foolish to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Not sure why some were so worked up over an 11z sat image lol. Seems sort of foolish to me. Not sure what Will was seeing earlier? But he tends to downplay severe events in general Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiWxWatcher Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Welcome to Berkshire County! I hope you like North Adams. I know the town fairly well as I have family in nearby Adams. I'm in Lenox, about 25 miles south of you. If you have any questions about the area, please feel free to send me a PM. Thank you, and I think you are close to Pittsfield, about 45 minutes outside of North Adams. You guys could see some severe weather today. The clouds are back, and it's still pretty chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I think all of CT and SE MA is under the gun. The strengthening wind fields and synoptic aid combined with the theta-e advection (you may be more unstable tonight than this afternoon) will keep the line going overnight. They can have it; all set with loss of power coupled with 65* DPs again. I'll defer payment until January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 That image Forker posted has a few super cells over N Ct and W Mass while the bow line rips areas to the sw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I think all of CT and SE MA is under the gun. The strengthening wind fields and synoptic aid combined with the theta-e advection (you may be more unstable tonight than this afternoon) will keep the line going overnight. I completely agree with this statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 That image Forker posted has a few super cells over N Ct and W Mass while the bow line rips areas to the sw Very difficult forecast for the Pioneer valley from Springfield to Noho. Despite warming up fairly well so far (relative to much of the region at any rate) certainly much lower probs than say BDL south and west. We were never in the crosshairs for this. But then we see something like that 4km Nam and it makes you wonder... Perhaps enhanced local helicity might help overcome overall lack of instability? Didn't really on 6/6/10 though. Trying to be objective, still thinking it struggles north of BAF, and hoping to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 rip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Very difficult forecast for the Pioneer valley from Springfield to Noho. Despite warming up fairly well so far (relative to much of the region at any rate) certainly much lower probs than say BDL south and west. We were never in the crosshairs for this. But then we see something like that 4km Nam and it makes you wonder... Perhaps enhanced local helicity might help overcome overall lack of instability? Didn't really on 6/6/10 though. Trying to be objective, still thinking it struggles north of BAF, and hoping to be wrong. Not really seeing much from the city on north which is OK by me. We had our turn last summer and Halloween weekend. No need for a replay IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The nighttime setup is kind of a Ginx fetish perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The nighttime setup is kind of a Ginx fetish perhaps. Especially if there's.... gasp.... TRAINING! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Especially if there's.... gasp.... TRAINING! Ha, could be one of those heavy rain strobe light deals with some wind damage in isolated cells? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 last night kinda failed...but today is still looking nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 last night kinda failed...but today is still looking nice Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 75/67 mostly cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 This will be very fun watching from afar... hope ya'll have your cameras ready today because it didn't happen if you don't post a picture of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 My cell phone is blowing up every 20 minutes with special weather statements from NWS and texts from every major news network in Boston. Seems like they're racing each other to send updates on the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 I'm not getting a good vibe about all this at the moment. The warm boundary is going to have trouble penetrating much further NE, because as hi res imagery and soundings show, the flow is nearly parallel the boundary... Could see it lock near SW CT. The idea yesterday (for me anywho...) was to get that boundary up to southern VT/NH, where by we had an influx of higher CAPE air working up underneath/collocated with deep layer shear. We'll have the shear, but there's questions in my mind on where the warm theta-e rich air ends up. Perhaps some of those sky-lights on vis coming into western sections can offset? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 This will be very fun watching from afar... hope ya'll have your cameras ready today because it didn't happen if you don't post a picture of it Pictures of large hail falling at night......seriously though, they should have some good stuff down that way. Have been back into the mank for the last hour or so here as I hope for some good ol' fashioned rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 Interesting... some much better breaks showing up ...ironically up to southern VT/NH latitudes, mainly across western zones - but it's moving east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 What does everyone in here make of the 12Z HRRR? It doesn't seem to be nearly as gung ho on any organized MCS action as the NAM and other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Interesting... some much better breaks showing up ...ironically up to southern VT/NH latitudes, mainly across western zones - but it's moving east. CENTRAL CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS FULTON CLOUDY 74 68 81 SW6 29.63F SYRACUSE CLOUDY 81 68 64 SW8 29.63F ROME CLOUDY 73 66 78 CALM 29.66S ELMIRA CLOUDY 75 68 78 W6 29.70S BINGHAMTON CLOUDY 74 66 76 SW8 29.72F $$ NYZ026>034-041>043-261600- NORTH CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS WATERTOWN CLOUDY 68 66 93 S6 29.61F FORT DRUM NOT AVBL MASSENA CLOUDY 66 63 88 CALM 29.65S SARANAC LAKE LGT RAIN 61 59 93 SW6 29.67F FOG PLATTSBURGH LGT RAIN 63 61 93 S6 29.66R Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Another SNE not-looking-quite-as-good-in-the-morning deal, at least for tornadoes in CT. RAP and to a lesser extent NAM really keep the good juice out of the area until the line/bow rolls through, leaving very little room for any discrete supercellss. This is why I hate "just in time" instability. It's still on for a major event, just not a very chasable one as it stands. Could still be a surprise or two, just gonna have to have to watch the radar and hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 continued clearing in the past 2 hours if this continues southeastern NY / northeastern PA / northern NJ looking best for initiation later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 What does everyone in here make of the 12Z HRRR? It doesn't seem to be nearly as gung ho on any organized MCS action as the NAM and other models. Scott Coastal mentioned this. I wonder if the cloud debris around influences the Rapid Refresh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I'm on mobile and have a quick question. Where does warm front look like it will be draped (in sne) later this afternoon. Thx for response Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Sun' s out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Can someone help locate the warm front here? I see DPs in 70s in southern PA - southern NJ - wrapping up to southern Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 BUST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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