CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Visible sat loop looks pretty good. Game on IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Thanks Mike, just ankle surgery. Sorry for ot but just wanted to say I appreciate your concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Yeah, I think the best of it will be to our SW, but I'm hoping we can find a way to cash in on something good later. I'd just be happy to get a nice dose of rain, even if we don't get any severe weather. You're miles closer to anything exciting than I (both figuratively and literally). Agree on the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 NAM is a bit modest meager with instability across SE NY and CT than previous runs were. Has trouble bringing the good juice east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 This. It's probably normal given it's not a predominant wx type but sometimes you gotta wonder... Get them tors. I'm hoping for a tail end Charlie, or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I've been getting PMs this morning about chasing and I wanted to share a few tornado thoughts. I think supercells (cluster? isolated?) get going in southern NY / N PA and move across NW NJ / SE NY 3-8 pm but they may have trouble with tornadogenesis. The LLJ will be in the process of strengthening but may not be strong enough to compensate for the lack of backing winds, so you end up with meager 0-1km SRH. On the other hand, the LCL will be low here with strong CAPE and a very strong mid-level jet. Perhaps we'll see a lot of close call TORs with a few lucky ones doing it here. Still better than most average severe days in the area. Further south is another possibility across C PA. I would watch localized backing in valley areas when storms try to get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 NAM is a bit modest meager with instability across SE NY and CT than previous runs were. Has trouble bringing the good juice east. Yea backed way off from previous runs, who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Looking at just the 12z nam 3 hr precip panels...and knowing what type of severe parameters will likely be in place...I suspect something viscious is plowing through east PA to NYC/CT from roughly 7-11pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 NAM is a bit modest meager with instability across SE NY and CT than previous runs were. Has trouble bringing the good juice east. Thats what the HRRR sort of has. I like Nrn NJ area for general severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Looking at just the 12z nam 3 hr precip panels...and knowing what type of severe parameters will likely be in place...I suspect something viscious is plowing through east PA to NYC/CT from roughly 7-11pm. Yeah I agree with this. The later round looks mean. Latest SREF guidance is eye opening with some of the parameters in this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Yea backed way off from previous runs, who knows But SREFs remain relatively impressive with 2000 j/kg of MLCAPE into western CT buy 21z. So that really hasn't changed much. Watch the dew points... they really need to be 70+ by 21z. Thats what the HRRR sort of has. I like Nrn NJ area for general severe. Agreed... I think the general outlook for NE PA/NW NJ/SE NY remains the most vulnerable for sig severe. But either way I expect a violent line in at least western/central CT after 00z. Whether we have fun before that is uncertain IMO. Looking at just the 12z nam 3 hr precip panels...and knowing what type of severe parameters will likely be in place...I suspect something viscious is plowing through east PA to NYC/CT from roughly 7-11pm. Yup. Mesoscale models really picking that up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Yeah I agree with this. The later round looks mean. Latest SREF guidance is eye opening with some of the parameters in this period. It really is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 But SREFs remain relatively impressive with 2000 j/kg of MLCAPE into western CT buy 21z. So that really hasn't changed much. Watch the dew points... they really need to be 70+ by 21z. Agreed... I think the general outlook for NE PA/NW NJ/SE NY remains the most vulnerable for sig severe. But either way I expect a violent line in at least western/central CT after 00z. Whether we have fun before that is uncertain IMO. Yup. Mesoscale models really picking that up now. my post was about tors in Ct and the Nam, certainly has a severe look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 It really is. What is your general take on timing for the worst of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 It really is. Between the nature of the storms, timing and location, I wouldn't plan a chase trip around it. The initial stuff this afternoon is really the only chaseable stuff during the daytime and I think it will struggle to produce a tornado. Keep expectations low if chasing today. This evening will be out of control if the SREF is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gwhizkids Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Visible sat loop looks pretty good. Game on IMO. Sun's peeking in and out at DXR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Enjoy The "Explosive" weather down there in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Between the nature of the storms, timing and location, I wouldn't plan a chase trip around it. The initial stuff this afternoon is really the only chaseable stuff during the daytime and I think it will struggle to produce a tornado. Keep expectations low if chasing today. This evening will be out of control if the SREF is right. lol nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Yeah I agree with this. The later round looks mean. Latest SREF guidance is eye opening with some of the parameters in this period. I was thinking SPC was being pretty ballsy having the mod risk all the way into New England like that , given the uncertainties of everything, and the look of sat/radar this morning...but at the same time, i could also see how the ramping of the upper level winds u are talking about could sustain an organized line/widespread damaging wind threat into some of the lower instability areas further northeast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 But SREFs remain relatively impressive with 2000 j/kg of MLCAPE into western CT buy 21z. So that really hasn't changed much. Watch the dew points... they really need to be 70+ by 21z. Agreed... I think the general outlook for NE PA/NW NJ/SE NY remains the most vulnerable for sig severe. But either way I expect a violent line in at least western/central CT after 00z. Whether we have fun before that is uncertain IMO. Yup. Mesoscale models really picking that up now. Yeah the nrn edge of any line could smack into wrn areas. One thing is for sure, dynamics say I don't give a shiat that it's nighttime lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Here's the 4km WRF from WSI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 lol nam What's the timestamp on that map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 lol nam Hi res is just nasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I was thinking SPC was being pretty ballsy having the mod risk all the way into New England like that , given the uncertainties of everything, and the look of sat/radar this morning...but at the same time, i could also see how the ramping of the upper level winds u are talking about could sustain an organized line/widespread damaging wind threat into some of the lower instability areas further northeast... I think the areas they have outlined in the mod risk are good. Places like ORH/PVD points east won't see much but once you get into SW MA/NW CT you have a nice juxtaposition of shear and instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Boy. SNE is at the very least in for a good soaking and some much needed (too much at once) rains overnight. If there are embedded thunderstorms within the very intense rain shield, then that is were our severe weather looks to come from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Between the nature of the storms, timing and location, I wouldn't plan a chase trip around it. The initial stuff this afternoon is really the only chaseable stuff during the daytime and I think it will struggle to produce a tornado. Keep expectations low if chasing today. This evening will be out of control if the SREF is right. Does the evening stuff hit us further in the east or still primarily for you western folk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Every model has the "derecho" barely missing me in TTN. LOL It's a lock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Visible sat loop looks pretty good. Game on IMO. Agree with extreme violence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I think the areas they have outlined in the mod risk are good. Places like ORH/PVD points east won't see much but once you get into SW MA/NW CT you have a nice juxtaposition of shear and instability. Fair enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.