moneypitmike Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Hey...welcome! It's nice to have a new NW MA weather person on here. Where are you located? The chance for severe weather is definitely better the further south you go. The southern Berkshires looks like it has the best chance for severe today, but I think the northern part of the area has a shot if we can clear things out some more for a while. I think the predominate convection type will be linear segments that can bow out into bow echoes, producing strong straight-line wind gusts. Near the vicinity of the warm front where low-level helicity is greater, there is a chance for a few discrete rotating supercells. I'm not sure exactly where this sets up, but I think it'll be somewhere in SW MA, W CT, SE NY, N NJ, and NE PA corridor. Agree on that, Mitch. THe fact that it's breaking (at least for the time being) is a good sign. So is that large area of clearing building into central NY. Regardless, this looks like Litchfield-CNJ's game and we'll be the peanut gallery/also-rans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I am enjoying this morning's derecho that Forbes said was possible, followed shortly by a volcanic eruption, shark attack and a NYC storm surge. DERCON of 8 fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 LOL true I did say that...a bunch of racket and damage without the awesome sight. I expect my derecho to show up around 9-930pm, just when it's dark enough. lol How about trying for both!? I'm heading north later this afternoon for the tornado/discrete convection threat, then back south later this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 70/64 rain, no wind, no thunder............pretty chilly out actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 After a short period of sprinkles, Sun poking out again with mostly cloudy skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 DERCON of 8 fail What are you talking about! TEB has -DZ with wind gusts to 11 knots. The "Forbes Derecho" of 2012 is alive baby. How about trying for both!? I'm heading north later this afternoon for the tornado/discrete convection threat, then back south later this evening. It's not that easy for me to just leave to head north during the day. If something tornadic looks to really set up in NW NJ, I will probably head up sometime in the early-mid afternoon, but I am not looking forward to that drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Visible satellite looks encouraging. Clouds thinning and clear sky area growing over upstate NY. Sun's coming out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Visible satellite looks encouraging. Clouds thinning and clear sky area growing over upstate NY. Sun's coming out here. Yeah we've had some breaks here. It's brightened a lot in general though so there probably isn't much left to punch through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 some heavy showers here... not even a rumble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Visible satellite looks encouraging. Clouds thinning and clear sky area growing over upstate NY. Sun's coming out here. How do you feel the "EML" is doing? I suppose there is an area of +10c h7 temps over SW NY / NW PA heading this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The HRRR looks like it keeps best stuff south near DXR and points sw. It may not be completely correct, but perhaps something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 How do you feel the "EML" is doing? I suppose there is an area of +10c h7 temps over SW NY / NW PA heading this way. There are some better lapse rates to the west... but certainly not as impressive as the NAM had 36 hours ago. I noticed decent lapse rates on the 12z BUF sounding below 600mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 There are some better lapse rates to the west... but certainly not as impressive as the NAM had 36 hours ago. I noticed decent lapse rates on the 12z BUF sounding below 600mb. Yeah when I first looked at the BUF sounding, I was impressed. Then I went down to the mid level lapse rates and sighed. Yes the best of the EML is definitely low-altitude but I am not worried about mixing out on a day like today. I am rooting for the morning activity to persist and keep my LCL down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I now think mahwah is a good staging point. I work in Ramsey (Right next to Mahwah). The problem with this area is that you don't really have a great place to view storms but this is a good location to move around as you have a lot of major interstates which intersect in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiWxWatcher Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Hey...welcome! It's nice to have a new NW MA weather person on here. Where are you located? The chance for severe weather is definitely better the further south you go. The southern Berkshires looks like it has the best chance for severe today, but I think the northern part of the area has a shot if we can clear things out some more for a while. I think the predominate convection type will be linear segments that can bow out into bow echoes, producing strong straight-line wind gusts. Near the vicinity of the warm front where low-level helicity is greater, there is a chance for a few discrete rotating supercells. I'm not sure exactly where this sets up, but I think it'll be somewhere in SW MA, W CT, SE NY, N NJ, and NE PA corridor. I am located in North Adams, so the northern Berkshires. Thank you for notifying me, as I have some important things to accomplish today, some of them involving the outdoors. I noticed that the moderate risk got pushed south, and it is currently pretty cold for July but the sun is poking through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The HRRR looks like it keeps best stuff south near DXR and points sw. It may not be completely correct, but perhaps something to watch. Is the location of where things will take place primarily being driven by where the warm front stalls (from AFDs, that seems to be the case). How is that currently positioned wrt how it was modeled? Perhaps that's a key to look at----with things seeming to trend a bit further south, I wonder if that might give an indication why. Sun giving the old college try to breakthrough. Had a short-lived showing earlier. However, things have really brightedned up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Crap, I just remembered I have a pre surgery appt today at 4. Chase cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 There are some better lapse rates to the west... but certainly not as impressive as the NAM had 36 hours ago. I noticed decent lapse rates on the 12z BUF sounding below 600mb. Yeah when I first looked at the BUF sounding, I was impressed. Then I went down to the mid level lapse rates and sighed. Yes the best of the EML is definitely low-altitude but I am not worried about mixing out on a day like today. I am rooting for the morning activity to persist and keep my LCL down. the PIT sounding looks pretty similar to some of the nam sounding forecasts I was looking at yesterday...EML in that 900-600 layer...I think this morning junk will help keep the low levels moist even if we attempt to mix down some of that drier air...I gotta admit too, i woke up at 5am to see this whole mess ongoing across the northeast and the unexpected cluster in southern pa/western MD, I initially got some cold feet about the over all threat going forward today...I also had a terrible morning to try and forecast as well lol, but that is besides the point...I love/hate convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I do too. I think widespread wind damage reports is a good bet down this way later this afternoon / evening. Mt Holly did an excellent job this morning outlining the two regions of interest. I am currently still trying to make a decision if I should chill in C NJ or head to NW NJ. My office is in Warren right off 78. Might head over to a scenic overlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Our 4km WRF has one hell of a bow echo heading into CT/NYC/NJ 00z-03z. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 so did NWS buffalo To be fair most northeast mets barely understand convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Crap, I just remembered I have a pre surgery appt today at 4. Chase cancel. Hope it's not serious. Sun shining brightly now with patches of blue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 To be fair most northeast mets barely understand convection LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 To be fair most northeast mets barely understand convection This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 12 Nam is not pretty for the CT tor predictors. NYC NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Agree on that, Mitch. THe fact that it's breaking (at least for the time being) is a good sign. So is that large area of clearing building into central NY. Regardless, this looks like Litchfield-CNJ's game and we'll be the peanut gallery/also-rans. Yeah, I think the best of it will be to our SW, but I'm hoping we can find a way to cash in on something good later. I'd just be happy to get a nice dose of rain, even if we don't get any severe weather. I am located in North Adams, so the northern Berkshires. Thank you for notifying me, as I have some important things to accomplish today, some of them involving the outdoors. I noticed that the moderate risk got pushed south, and it is currently pretty cold for July but the sun is poking through. Welcome to Berkshire County! I hope you like North Adams. I know the town fairly well as I have family in nearby Adams. I'm in Lenox, about 25 miles south of you. If you have any questions about the area, please feel free to send me a PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 12 Nam is not pretty for the CT tor predictors. NYC NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 To be fair most northeast mets barely understand convection lol vicious man, vicious. If only that excuse could apply to Forbes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 12 Nam is not pretty for the CT tor predictors. NYC NJ The bus is heading south? Well, hopefully we can still get some rains in GC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 To be fair most northeast mets barely understand convection that's why we count on non-met experts like ct. blizz I noticed the spc nudged the slight risk area to include more of NNE since yesterday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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