moneypitmike Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 http://www.spc.noaa....k/day1otlk.html Mod risk moved south So it would appear..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I just wanted to say good morning as we await our warm frontal passage. Remember, this is going to be painful for you New Englanders who may still be trying to get unstable at 18z. Meanwhile down here in NJ, I am gearing up for my apocalyptic derecho this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Looks that way. Convection around it is weakening as well with warming cloud tops. Should see that patch of clear skies build. What do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 another image as noted, the breaks over NY appear to be expanding as convection weakens BOX 745am update: Near term /through tonight/... 745 am update... convection has been weakening as it shifts east into western New England early this morning. May see some isolated thunder make it into north CT/west Massachusetts over the next few hours...though appears it may shift just to our S. Otherwise...forecast is pretty much on track from earlier this morning. Area of showers will move across. Looking further west...main mesoscale convective system that was across central and northern Michigan weakening as expected... but appears a smaller cluster of thunderstorms developed over last few hours across central-southern PA. Big question will be the debris clouds that will move across the region with this system and how that will affect development of thunderstorms later in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I just wanted to say good morning as we await our warm frontal passage. Remember, this is going to be painful for you New Englanders who may still be trying to get unstable at 18z. Meanwhile down here in NJ, I am gearing up for my apocalyptic derecho this evening. I think NJ is game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I think NJ is game on. 5% tornado risk now in NNJ http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I just wanted to say good morning as we await our warm frontal passage. Remember, this is going to be painful for you New Englanders who may still be trying to get unstable at 18z. Meanwhile down here in NJ, I am gearing up for my apocalyptic derecho this evening. What do you think? Pretty much AWT this morning. We knew we'd have morning convection and upstream junk. We also knew that the chance for tornadoes was in a fairly narrow corridor from AVP to BDL and I think that continues. Just will have to see how unstable we get (it will be painful to watch as HM said... I am predicting many weenie bust posts prior to 18z) and what the storm mode is after 21z. Initially discrete prior to the line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I think NJ is game on. I do too. I think widespread wind damage reports is a good bet down this way later this afternoon / evening. Mt Holly did an excellent job this morning outlining the two regions of interest. I am currently still trying to make a decision if I should chill in C NJ or head to NW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 ha... how incredible would that be for today when is that sat pic from? That looks like 6/1/11...looks like springfield is getting owned on that pic, and I'm minutes from seeing quarter-golf ball sized hail in central NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I do too. I think widespread wind damage reports is a good bet down this way later this afternoon / evening. Mt Holly did an excellent job this morning outlining the two regions of interest. I am currently still trying to make a decision if I should chill in C NJ or head to NW NJ. I'd say NW NJ for the first round of storms then head back south for the squall line. Up here it will all depend on how much we can destabilize to see if we have any fun prior to the main line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Pretty much AWT this morning. We knew we'd have morning convection and upstream junk. We also knew that the chance for tornadoes was in a fairly narrow corridor from AVP to BDL and I think that continues. Just will have to see how unstable we get (it will be painful to watch as HM said... I am predicting many weenie bust posts prior to 18z) and what the storm mode is after 21z. Initially discrete prior to the line? I think you will see a few discrete cells ahead of the line and then possibly become part of it as the line accelerates in the strengthening wind fields. They will remain potentially tornadic even after they become absorbed. Good luck to you guys in E NY, CT / W MA...looks like a fun day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I'd say NW NJ for the first round of storms then head back south for the squall line. Up here it will all depend on how much we can destabilize to see if we have any fun prior to the main line. Sunny breaks 10:00 or 11;00 for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Holy ****...5% tor over my head...if anyone wants to come out to torrington around 3 you can park at my house and we can chase from there. free candy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Sunny breaks 10:00 or 11;00 for us? Probably noon or shortly thereafter no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I now think mahwah is a good staging point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 A patch of blue sky showing up here after a touch of rain. So far, I'm concerned by all of the junk cloud cover upstream in NY and PA as it could dampen the destabilization process. A good New England severe event with supercells more often fails than not. It doesn't take as much meteorologically for squall lines and non-severe storms, but pretty much everything has to come together perfectly for a good supercell event to occur. However, as this was modeled to be a later threat we still have plenty of time for things to evolve. Maybe we can clear things out more this afternoon. My pick for a primo spot is in the Hudson Valley near POU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 SREF keeps SigTor significant well into the night... particularly for western CT obviously we're in business with any discrete cells, but I wonder how this will impact the line when it comes through as well 21Z: 6Z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I do too. I think widespread wind damage reports is a good bet down this way later this afternoon / evening. Mt Holly did an excellent job this morning outlining the two regions of interest. I am currently still trying to make a decision if I should chill in C NJ or head to NW NJ. If you're in Somerset County I would suggest the Watchungs Mountains or even some place in the Somerset Hills (northern Somerset County), Bernardsville has the highest point in the county. Unfortunately in this part of nj there are too many trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I just wanted to say good morning as we await our warm frontal passage. Remember, this is going to be painful for you New Englanders who may still be trying to get unstable at 18z. Meanwhile down here in NJ, I am gearing up for my apocalyptic derecho this evening. you said this yourself though a month ago, "what good is a derecho at night?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 That looks like 6/1/11...looks like springfield is getting owned on that pic, and I'm minutes from seeing quarter-golf ball sized hail in central NJ I am enjoying this morning's derecho that Forbes said was possible, followed shortly by a volcanic eruption, shark attack and a NYC storm surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I am enjoying this morning's derecho that Forbes said was possible, followed shortly by a volcanic eruption, shark attack and a NYC storm surge. It is 2012 afterall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Blue sky breaks and sun poking thru here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I am enjoying this morning's derecho that Forbes said was possible, followed shortly by a volcanic eruption, shark attack and a NYC storm surge. so did NWS buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I am enjoying this morning's derecho that Forbes said was possible, followed shortly by a volcanic eruption, shark attack and a NYC storm surge. Don't forget the dormant fault lines waiting to slip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I do too. I think widespread wind damage reports is a good bet down this way later this afternoon / evening. Mt Holly did an excellent job this morning outlining the two regions of interest. I am currently still trying to make a decision if I should chill in C NJ or head to NW NJ. I think you can sit comfortably in either location! Sunny breaks 10:00 or 11;00 for us? Sun peeking through here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I like the broad area of 50kt deep layer shear from MI to New England (with even in embedded 60kt in MI). Warm front will get stuck "CAD-style" for a bit this morning as this dying "MCS" moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I think you can sit comfortably in either location! Sun peeking through here now. Oh I thought you guys meant when Wed be in full sun...my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 you said this yourself though a month ago, "what good is a derecho at night?" LOL true I did say that...a bunch of racket and damage without the awesome sight. I expect my derecho to show up around 9-930pm, just when it's dark enough. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I just recently moved to Northwestern MA..what time should I expect severe weather and in what mode? Hey...welcome! It's nice to have a new NW MA weather person on here. Where are you located? The chance for severe weather is definitely better the further south you go. The southern Berkshires looks like it has the best chance for severe today, but I think the northern part of the area has a shot if we can clear things out some more for a while. I think the predominate convection type will be linear segments that can bow out into bow echoes, producing strong straight-line wind gusts. Near the vicinity of the warm front where low-level helicity is greater, there is a chance for a few discrete rotating supercells. I'm not sure exactly where this sets up, but I think it'll be somewhere in SW MA, W CT, SE NY, N NJ, and NE PA corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Just a semi-related comment: when WFOs and mets say that the main threat is damaging wind and hail, that's like saying the biggest player this upcoming winter is going to be the NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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