ORH_wxman Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 ALY says not to count on it either: THERE NOW MIGHT NOT BE ANY REAL BREAK IN THE ACTION AS WE SEE THIS LINE OF COLD TOP CLOUDS FROM NEW YORK STATE WEST TO WISCONSIN. THEREFORE...JUST WENT AHEAD AND CALLED IT OCNL SHOWERS (WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH THE FORENOON)...THEN OCNL THUNDERSTORMS WITH ENHANCED WORDING THEREAFTER. THE BIGGEST DISTURBANCE STILL WI...WILL APPROACH OUR REGION LATE TODAY. THIS IS TIED IN WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH OUR SW AREAS...REACHING THE DOOR STEP OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY THIS EVENING. From an obs standpoint, what would call the threshold of temp/dp to indicate you've warm-sectored? I'm not counting on it, but will be good to keep tabs on the northward progression of the front. Yeah I do not think we're going to clear much at all today looking at upstream obs. If decent severe does develop in SNE, its probably going to have to be a "dirty" event where embedded thunderstorms use the very high shear values to produce anything. But we'll see, its still early, and things may clear out a tad more than it looks right now...but right now its pretty socked in all the way back to the lakes. That was not the case at all last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 We really aren;t going to need much sun today for this to happen. In this particular setup just a few hours of hazy sun should be enough. It def won't totally clear, but that was never going to happen anyway. There's breaks back over Upstate NY, and this time of the year..the sun will also burn thru and break up some of the clouds during midday-afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 We really aren;t going to need much sun today for this to happen. In this particular setup just a few hours of hazy sun should be enough. It def won't totally clear, but that was never going to happen anyway. There's breaks back over Upstate NY, and this time of the year..the sun will also burn thru and break up some of the clouds during midday-afternoon. This sounds quite reminiscent of 6/6/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 This sounds quite reminiscent of 6/6/10 What was the deal with that event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 We really aren;t going to need much sun today for this to happen. In this particular setup just a few hours of hazy sun should be enough. It def won't totally clear, but that was never going to happen anyway. There's breaks back over Upstate NY, and this time of the year..the sun will also burn thru and break up some of the clouds during midday-afternoon. Clearing back into Ohio, that may be the best bet for the area to destabilize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Clearing back into Ohio, that may be the best bet for the area to destabilize. For SNE..we need to look more to upstate NY for breaks/clearing..Ohio/Western Pa is more for NYC south. Vis shows some clearing/breaks over Far Upstate NY . It will never totally clear..just breaks of sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Vis and radar pretty much look like I thought they would this morning. No reason for a 12z cloud panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Vis and radar pretty much look like I thought thru would this morning. No reason for a 12z cloud panic. LOL..it's amazing at how well things have played out so far. Just like forecast. Great blog last nite BTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Look at these showers drying up as they move east. Nothing but sprinkles/light showers except far sw CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Partly sunny here in Pomfret, which won't last given the incoming clouds from the west and too early to destabilize things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Steady light rain and temps stuck in the low 60's is not really boosting my confidence in seeing severe wx around here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 LOL..it's amazing at how well things have played out so far. Just like forecast. Great blog last nite BTW is this Bizarro world? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Look at these showers drying up as they move east. Nothing but sprinkles/light showers except far sw CT Yeah--the rain's been light. Radar would suggest somehting a little more robust. The cloud cover might be a different story. Regardless, you CT folks are in a good position --especially west of 91. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 we will all be watching the clouds early today, cloudy here in Billerica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Would like to start seeing cloud tops warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Precip is clearly on the wane as it pushes east. Breaks appearing the Western New York. Regarding timing, everything has suggested this will be later event than 6/1/11 Not sure we see much as far as severe goes prior to 21z. As far east as I am, probably more like 0z w/just a wind threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I would be pretty stoked if we get some serious thunderstorms overnight. I still remember the one that moved through Boston last year. I was north of the city, but the light show was amazing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Can someone post a satellite image? On mobile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gwhizkids Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Will any of the rest area/scenic view sites on the Taconic State Parkway work for you? There's a couple of decent ones further north (say So. Columbia County) but that might be a little too far north. Just a thought. This is one of my favorite areas: CT Route 133 (Main St) in Bridgewater, CT. As you can see, there's very good visibility to the NW. The nearer line of hills are the ridge just west of the Housatonic in New Milford. Very good viewing conditions for incoming storms. Access to US 7 and I-84 is not too bad either, for moving to other areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 This is one of my favorite areas: CT Route 133 (Main St) in Bridgewater, CT. As you can see, there's very good visibility to the NW. The nearer line of hills are the ridge just west of the Housatonic in New Milford. Very good viewing conditions for incoming storms. Access to US 7 and I-84 is not too bad either, for moving to other areas. Cant argue with mohawk state park if you're willing to come north...road to the top and 1650' I think. Views well into nys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 This won't have the atmosphere 6/1/11 so I wouldn't throw that date around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Can someone post a satellite image? On mobile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 oh you mean today Wiz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Mod risk moved south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I wonder why the SPC Wrf looks rather meh. It's looked better on see text days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 oh you mean today Wiz? ha... how incredible would that be for today when is that sat pic from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Those breaks in ny state should move in near noon or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Those breaks in ny state should move in near noon or so. Looks that way. Convection around it is weakening as well with warming cloud tops. Should see that patch of clear skies build. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 ha... how incredible would that be for today when is that sat pic from? 6/1/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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