yoda Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Well time to sleep for a bit...alarm set for 5:32 AM but I'm sure my eyes will pop open sometime after 2 AM and I'll run the 5ft from my bed to computer to check the new day 1. Meantime let's play guess that outlook... I'll say mod risk with 45% hatched winds, 30% hail, and 10% tornado...if it's clear we will sufficiently destabilize or SPC has a good feeling about it than perhaps 10% hatched tornado. You were so close Wiz... 5% TOR was your miss... seems like SPC is hitting more widespread wind threat then any real TOR threat reading their disco... but we shall see what the 1300z says as the MCS complex moves in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 You were so close Wiz... 5% TOR was your miss... seems like SPC is hitting more widespread wind threat then any real TOR threat reading their disco... but we shall see what the 1300z says as the MCS complex moves in They went with a 2% and 5% TOR due to uncertainty with the morning MCS, if everything clears, i wouldn't be surprised if we get a large 10% area and a small 15% hatched areas, near the low, tomorrow looks interesting from the OH Valley to Northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Man..all systems go today it appears. They extended the mod risk eastward as we were discussing yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Man..all systems go today it appears. They extended the mod risk eastward as we were discussing yesterday. Looks like a night thing. Hopefully you guys see something interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Man..all systems go today it appears. They extended the mod risk eastward as we were discussing yesterday. You don't think all the crapvection coming east is an issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 You don't think all the crapvection coming east is an issue? Not at all. It was forecast and is developing and moving along exactly as some of the models had it. Looks like it moves thru by mid-late morning and then sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 WRF doesn't look impressive at all for convection here...something to note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Looks like Pete might get blown to Wachusett. Stay safe, compadres. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST RISK AREA EXISTS ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT...BUT MOST OF THE REGION HAS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. IN ADDITION...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN CONNECTICUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Man..all systems go today it appears. They extended the mod risk eastward as we were discussing yesterday. I think the fact that I'm in the moderate region is the result of sloppy drawing. Have things been adjusted northward? Otherwsie, I'd expec this to be an area using I-84 and 91 as borders and head SW from there. For me, keep the destruction away. Give me a good light show and thunder and I'll be good. Throw in the wind, I'm happy to have a generator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMSEXISTS VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST RISK AREA EXISTS ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT...BUT MOST OF THE REGION HAS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. IN ADDITION...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN CONNECTICUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. Big shift northward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Hopefully we see some steeper mid-level lapse rates move in but right now they are pretty crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Spc looking way too bulish, the parameters are crap right now and clouds will plague the area all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam038 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Sadly very true. There are spots here and there near the NY/CT border where a road gets high enough on a hill and you can see all the way to the Catskills, so I'm probably going to try and find one of them tomorrow. I'm stuck at home in central Dutchess until 3:30, so I'm hoping some of the discrete cells will still be hanging around until the late afternoon. Will any of the rest area/scenic view sites on the Taconic State Parkway work for you? There's a couple of decent ones further north (say So. Columbia County) but that might be a little too far north. Just a thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Someone earlier had asked amout storm motion. Albany says it here. That direction spells the deathknell for me as so frequenlty that has storms ride along the pike from Pitssfield toward BAF. Matches well with BOX's call of 'from the Pike south'. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES FORM WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 40 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. IN ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THAT MIGHT LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Hard to disagree with any of this. Frankly, if the cap does break, the instability/shear combo looks as good if not better than 6/1/11 and the results in SNE could be extremely interesting. I love when Tornado Tony posts in here. He only enters and posts when the threat is high and real. He was here June 1 2011.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Chasing --- thought about starting a separate thread but I'll leave it here for now: 1) Where would people recommend as a staging city? Debating I-90 west vs. I-84 west into eastern NY... 21z SREF seems to concur with NAM in best chances southeast NY / western CT 2) Timing? Looks like window is between clearing subsidence / CIN after morning MCS (maybe by 1-2pm?) and line passing through later at night. Thanks all. Awesome thread, great posts, and love seeing Western/Central forum regulars here! Ct River Valley ..HFD/WH area..set up by 4:00 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Ct River Valley ..HFD/WH area..set up by 4:00 pm Avon Mt might be a good place, if there is a good place to pull off? Some good views from some of the Hills in Palmer Ma/Union CT Further east, Dresser Hill in Charlton Ma great views west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiWxWatcher Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I just recently moved to Northwestern MA..what time should I expect severe weather and in what mode? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I don't know how soon its going to clear....there's an awful lot of cloudiness to go through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I don't know how soon its going to clear....there's an awful lot of cloudiness to go through. I doubt it will a ton of clouds and rain all over the northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Ct River Valley ..HFD/WH area..set up by 4:00 pm Avon Mt might be a good place, if there is a good place to pull off? Some good views from some of the Hills in Palmer Ma/Union CT Further east, Dresser Hill in Charlton Ma great views west I just recently moved to Northwestern MA..what time should I expect severe weather and in what mode? Where are you located? Should things take a northern jump (or if you just want to get a distant view of things of storms in the distance), High Ledges here in Shelburne provides decent views to the west and southwest. It also has easy access to Rt 2, Rt 112, RT 8A. Don't be there in a storm, though--you'll be a human lightning rod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Ct River Valley ..HFD/WH area..set up by 4:00 pm Too much traffic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Too much traffic WH is good..you just don't want to be in downtown HFD..West of the city is good. I'd also avoid Waterbury. That is a traffic disaster on 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I don't know how soon its going to clear....there's an awful lot of cloudiness to go through. I doubt it will a ton of clouds and rain all over the northeast You mean this? Yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 You mean this? Yuck. Most of the stuff is falling apart the more south it goes, hopefully we can clear it up quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 If it does clear, its going to be more of a late bloomer than 6/1 last year. We had a lot of clearing through NY State already by now last year....there is no sign of it today thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 If it does clear, its going to be more of a late bloomer than 6/1 last year. We had a lot of clearing through NY State already by now last year....there is no sign of it today thus far. ALY says not to count on it either: THERE NOW MIGHT NOT BE ANY REAL BREAK IN THE ACTION AS WE SEE THIS LINE OF COLD TOP CLOUDS FROM NEW YORK STATE WEST TO WISCONSIN. THEREFORE...JUST WENT AHEAD AND CALLED IT OCNL SHOWERS (WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH THE FORENOON)...THEN OCNL THUNDERSTORMS WITH ENHANCED WORDING THEREAFTER. THE BIGGEST DISTURBANCE STILL WI...WILL APPROACH OUR REGION LATE TODAY. THIS IS TIED IN WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH OUR SW AREAS...REACHING THE DOOR STEP OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY THIS EVENING. From an obs standpoint, what would call the threshold of temp/dp to indicate you've warm-sectored? I'm not counting on it, but will be good to keep tabs on the northward progression of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Binghamton staying bullish. .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 5 AM UPDATE... AN ACTIVE DAYTIME AND EVENING PD EXPECTED. SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE ESEWD ACRS THE RGN ATTM...ASSOCD WITH AN INCOMING WARM FRNT...AND ATTENDANT STG WAA FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. STORMS ARE ELEVATED IN NATURE EARLY THIS MRNG OVER CNY/NE PA...WITH THE BEST INSTAB STILL LOCATED WELL BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR...ACRS LK ERIE...LWR MI...AND THE OH VLY. DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION ATTM...WE FEEL THE NEAR- TERM SVR THREAT IS LOW...WITH LOCALLY +RA...SMALLER HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS TO ARND 40 MPH PERCEIVED TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. HRRR/WRF SIM REFL PROGS SHOW A PSBL LULL IN THE ACTION LATER THIS MRNG INTO THE EARLY AFTN...AS THE PRESENT ACTIVITY SLIDES FARTHER TO THE E AND WEAKENS A BIT. IF THIS LULL DOES OCCUR...THOUGH...IT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. BY/AFTER 18Z...TSRA SHOULD REINVIGORATE...OWING TO RAPID DESTABILIZATION AND IMPROVED UPR-LVL JET DYNAMICS. THE EXACT EVOLUTION REMAINS UNCLEAR LATER TDY INTO THE EARLY EVE...WITH REGARDS TO EXACTLY WHERE TSRA RE-FIRE...AND WHAT MODE (LINEAR OR MORE DISCRETE CELLS). DEEP-LYRD SHEAR VECTORS ARE WRLY...WHICH WOULD BE ORIENTED ORTHOGONAL TO ANY N-S BNDRYS (PRE- FRNTL TROUGHS...OUTFLOW...OR THE ERN EDGE OF THE SFC WARM FRNT)...AND THIS COULD FAVOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN THESE LOCATIONS. UPSTREAM ACTIVITY COMING EWD FROM LWR MI/SRN ONT...WOULD POINT TO THE PSBLTY OF MORE CLDS/PCPN IN THE NRN HALF OF THE FA (FINGER LKS/SRN TUG/WRN MOHAWK VLY RGNS). THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY YIELD MORE STABLE CONDS THESE LOCALES. HOWEVER...JUST TO THE S OVER NY`S SRN TIER AND NRN PA...THE PROSPECTS FOR MORE SUNSHINE/BETTER HEATING ARE THERE BEHIND CURRENT ACTIVITY...ALG WITH SOME DIFF HEATING/LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BNDRYS. THUS...WE FEEL THE BEST SVR THREAT IS IN THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA...GENERALLY FROM ABT 18Z...INTO THE 00-03Z TIME RANGES...AND THIS MATCHES SPC`S OUTLOOK (MDT RISK) PRETTY WELL. INSTAB/SHEAR COMBO (ML CAPE OF 2000-4000...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ARND 50 KT...AND 0-1 KM HELICITY OF 100-300) ALL POINT TWDS THE LIKELIHOOD OF A WELL DEVELOPED SQUALL LN...OR SUPERCELLS (PERHAPS EMBEDDED TORNADIC ONES). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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