OKpowdah Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Ehh I'm not as familiar with some of the mesoscale intricacies of SNE as I am in the middle of the country or the south. But boy, seeing those profiles anywhere really piques my interest. Absolutely. Can't say I'm all that well versed in severe weather in general. New England doesn't provide that much practice The trend today has been very promising. These forecast soundings are classic, and any left over boundaries intersecting enhanced southerly wind along the Hudson and CT River valleys makes tomorrow a very interesting day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Wiz working guarantees at least and EF3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Well if we can develop discrete supercells tomorrow out ahead of the main line we should have a 5-6 hour window where we could be dealing with the potential for tornadoes (maybe even a small outbreak of tornadoes) then we really turn our attention to the main line where wind damage should be the biggest concern although an isolated tornado within that line certainly couldn't be ruled out, especially if we see any breaks in that line or within the comma head. For the tornado threat if we can develop 2000+ Cape with those helicity values and see discrete development it could be pretty wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Absolutely. Can't say I'm all that well versed in severe weather in general. New England doesn't provide that much practice The trend today has been very promising. These forecast soundings are classic, and any left over boundaries intersecting enhanced southerly wind along the Hudson and CT River valleys makes tomorrow a very interesting day. Agreed, with already impressive LL shear, that would only make this more potentially dangerous... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 If I chased I would setup near SWF for noon. Agree generally. I like your max zone quite a bit.. wouldn't be shocked to see it a bit north but we'll see. For some reason Pittsfield keeps entering my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Do the soundings have decent mid level lapse rates? SREFS looked blah in that dept. 6.5C would probably be fine given shear. NAM has 850-500mb lapse rates around 6.3-6.4 for many locations in C and W CT at 21z. Definitely a bit of a warm layer around 500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 If I chased I would setup near SWF for noon. Where is SWF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Where is SWF? Newburgh.. horrible place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eire015 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Any thoughts on the probable storm motion at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Newburgh.. horrible place. Highland,NY there is a Dude Ranch or Horse ranch there called The Rocking Horse Ranch, been there very nice place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Any thoughts on the probable storm motion at this point? Prominently easterly or east-southeasterly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 NAM has 850-500mb lapse rates around 6.3-6.4 for many locations in C and W CT at 21z. Definitely a bit of a warm layer around 500. BDL bufkit sounding had 800-500mb lapse rates of 7 C/KM at 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 BDL bufkit sounding had 800-500mb lapse rates of 7 C/KM at 21z. Oh ok. I'll go with yours. I was just using Earl Barker's page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloudsncontrails Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Just downloaded the Weathergeek Pro2 and radar scope on my phone and am driving to NE PA to visit family tomorrow. We will be leaving CT later around 4:30--5, but it's going to be an awesome ride on 84 & 81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Just downloaded the Weathergeek Pro2 and radar scope on my phone and am driving to NE PA to visit family tomorrow. We will be leaving CT later around 4:30--5, but it's going to be an awesome ride on 84 & 81. Eh its ok if you get side-tracked on a storm chase or intercept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Chasing near NY you are limited in terms of places with views. The Hudson river probably has some good spots to sit and wait. Bear Mountain for example has some good views. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Chasing near NY you are limited in terms of places with views. The Hudson river probably has some good spots to sit and wait. Bear Mountain for example has some good views. Sadly very true. There are spots here and there near the NY/CT border where a road gets high enough on a hill and you can see all the way to the Catskills, so I'm probably going to try and find one of them tomorrow. I'm stuck at home in central Dutchess until 3:30, so I'm hoping some of the discrete cells will still be hanging around until the late afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Meanwhile, the GFS comes toward the older NAM solutions to some degree. The HPC also notes the convective errors possible contributing to the NAM's faster SLP track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 We are going to focus on the 84 corridor from Scranton to Danbury. Starting point Newburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The more I look at the NAM the more impressed I am. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Meanwhile, the GFS comes toward the older NAM solutions to some degree. The HPC also notes the convective errors possible contributing to the NAM's faster SLP track. Both NAM/GFS now agree with timing/location/strength of LLJ max after 21z in SE NY and SW SNE. That will help lengthen already curved hodographs an introduce the 21z and beyond tornado threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 We are going to focus on the 84 corridor from Scranton to Danbury. Starting point Newburgh. Yeah this is a great idea. I know some of the area spent time at the Rocking Horse Ranch in Highland,NY. Some great views in that area. We are ready to rock on our trip and chase. The Philly-NJ Chase team. Had to rename it from LEAN to Philly-NJ Chase team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Both NAM/GFS now agree with timing/location/strength of LLJ max after 21z in SE NY and SW SNE. That will help lengthen already curved hodographs an introduce the 21z and beyond tornado threat. What time is 21z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 What time is 21z? 5pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 5pm Thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Sadly very true. There are spots here and there near the NY/CT border where a road gets high enough on a hill and you can see all the way to the Catskills, so I'm probably going to try and find one of them tomorrow. I'm stuck at home in central Dutchess until 3:30, so I'm hoping some of the discrete cells will still be hanging around until the late afternoon. If you can see 20+ miles to the northwest, definitely stay near that spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 When chasing in SNE it's almost always better to be a bit downstream as compared to where you might target for a similar setup out on the Plains. Genuine Alley-style chasing is virtually impossible here due to terrain and trees and traffic, so I usually just shoot for a single good intercept, and if you get more than that it's icing on the cake. However, I have to say that the models have been keeping storm motions quite remarkably reasonable this time around, unusually so for this part of the world, especially given the dynamics of the system, so maybe a real chase isn't completely out of the question. If we get discrete convection, that is - a big if. There will be no chasing that line, count on it, if things play out anywhere near current expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Well time to sleep for a bit...alarm set for 5:32 AM but I'm sure my eyes will pop open sometime after 2 AM and I'll run the 5ft from my bed to computer to check the new day 1. Meantime let's play guess that outlook... I'll say mod risk with 45% hatched winds, 30% hail, and 10% tornado...if it's clear we will sufficiently destabilize or SPC has a good feeling about it than perhaps 10% hatched tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 loving that radar...although the MCS in Michigan hasn't organized enough yet to be perpendicular to the mean flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 MOD RISK... 5% TOR... 30% HAIL... 45% HATCHED WIND... 0600 OTLK hits wind... no real TOR threat ..OH VALLEY THROUGH NERN STATES CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO STRONG WSWLY DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL PERSIST WITHIN BASE OF AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WITH 40-50 KT BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NERN STATES. THE SWLY LLJ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NEWD DESTABILIZATION AS RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS/ ADVECTS NEWD IN WAKE OF ADVANCING WARM FRONT. A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER A PORTION OF NY INTO NEW ENGLAND. OTHER MORE ORGANIZED STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND MAY BE IN PROGRESS OVER SWRN NY OR NRN PA. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AS DIABATIC WARMING COMMENCES AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS THE CAP WEAKENS. STRONG INSTABILITY WITH 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30-50 KT DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL PROMOTE A THREAT OF WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO LINES AND CLUSTERS. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER A PART OF THE NERN STATES WHERE STRONGER EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL EXIST NEAR AND JUST S OF THE WARM FRONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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