weatherwiz Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Having that EML so shallow may actually not be all that bad...that dry air situated from just above 850mb to 700mb or so should actually help us clear out much quicker I would think...just as long as this EML plume stays in tact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Yeah it seems like so many people are trying to get excited about tornadoes while the night show could be awesome. I'd rather look forward to that since hoping for tornadoes is like wishing 6-12" of powder for Charleston SC. Yeah but to build on your analogy: it would be like Mar 1980 being modeled about 100 miles further east. It is always a hard thing to watch favorable parameters slip away before the actual convection arrives. But at least in this case, the line is going to be awesome regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The NAM solution verbatim is not a total loss. There is a definitely a formidable gradient over E NY and W CT and it definitely hints at the potential for a discrete cell or two before the main show. I think Paul is correct in suggesting that the CIN / destabilization issue could be why the NAM shows a lack of development. Yup... looks like a bit of subsidence behind any morning convection. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Ummm... wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Yeah but to build on your analogy: it would be like Mar 1980 being modeled about 100 miles further east. It is always a hard thing to watch favorable parameters slip away before the actual convection arrives. But at least in this case, the line is going to be awesome regardless. The line would/will be far more interesting than tornadoes for 99.9% of people unless you realllllly enjoy radar images and possible youtube videos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 That's a June 1, 2011 kind of a hodograph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 HOLY **** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Even if the discrete aspect fails, the main line will be extremely intense with embedded tornadoes anyway. The strengthening low and mid level jet, CVA and impressive instability will lead to an amazing evening show. No doubt about that. I have a hard time imagining the discrete mode not showing up at all though, especially from E NY into W CT. There's not really this dominant linear large scale lifting mechanism that would completely shut down anything outside of its focus, and the cap tomorrow should be broken over E NY and SW CT by the mid-late afternoon I think, with development assisted along left over boundaries. And the degree of directional shear definitely argues for maintaining discrete cells (if they develop) ahead of the main line. We're looking at BRNs in the 20's. These forecast soundings are beautiful. My personal favorite is seeing nearly perfect 40kt semicircle hodographs, identical to the idealized wind profiles I used in simulations at the NSSL last summer lol I lost strength hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 LCL heights about 500m too at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The line would/will be far more interesting than tornadoes for 99.9% of people unless you realllllly enjoy radar images and possible youtube videos. True but that goes without saying wouldn't you say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 You can see the CIN there on that BDL sounding I posted. May keep a lid on activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 No doubt about that. I have a hard time imagining the discrete mode not showing up at all though, especially from E NY into W CT. There's not really this dominant linear large scale lifting mechanism that would completely shut down anything outside of its focus, and the cap tomorrow should be broken over E NY and SW CT by the mid-late afternoon I think, with development assisted along left over boundaries. And the degree of directional shear definitely argues for maintaining discrete cells (if they develop) ahead of the main line. We're looking at BRNs in the 20's. These forecast soundings are beautiful. My personal favorite is seeing nearly perfect 40kt semicircle hodographs, identical to the idealized wind profiles I used in simulations at the NSSL last summer lol I'm with you. I do still think the NAM is adamant about the potential for tornadoes...even if it isn't for 99.9% of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I'm with you. I do still think the NAM is adamant about the potential for tornadoes...even if it isn't for 99.9% of people. You guys were talking about the squall line. I responded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I think a late arrival is a good thing. It gives recovery time from any morning mess and if indeed lapse rates and hodos are as good as modeled, then there would be little problem to keep the action going. Of course, that's as long as it goes accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 No doubt about that. I have a hard time imagining the discrete mode not showing up at all though, especially from E NY into W CT. There's not really this dominant linear large scale lifting mechanism that would completely shut down anything outside of its focus, and the cap tomorrow should be broken over E NY and SW CT by the mid-late afternoon I think, with development assisted along left over boundaries. And the degree of directional shear definitely argues for maintaining discrete cells (if they develop) ahead of the main line. We're looking at BRNs in the 20's. These forecast soundings are beautiful. My personal favorite is seeing nearly perfect 40kt semicircle hodographs, identical to the idealized wind profiles I used in simulations at the NSSL last summer lol Hard to disagree with any of this. Frankly, if the cap does break, the instability/shear combo looks as good if not better than 6/1/11 and the results in SNE could be extremely interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I think a late arrival is a good thing. It gives recovery time from any morning mess and if indeed lapse rates and hodos are as good as modeled, then there would be little problem to keep the action going. Of course, that's as long as it goes accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Hey have to say it lol. Hard not to get excited about the models right now. Too bad iPhone cant do bufkit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Hey have to say it lol. Hard not to get excited about the models right now. Too bad iPhone cant do bufkit. Yeah these hodographs are exceptionally impressive. Just need to get the convection in here and the morning clouds out and then we're in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Hard to disagree with any of this. Frankly, if the cap does break, the instability/shear combo looks as good if not better than 6/1/11 and the results in SNE could be extremely interesting. Wiz just collapsed. Call out of work now Paul! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Hard to disagree with any of this. Frankly, if the cap does break, the instability/shear combo looks as good if not better than 6/1/11 and the results in SNE could be extremely interesting. Wait til Kevin sees this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Ummm... wow... Are you kidding me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Wait til Kevin sees this. Most damaging day in Tolland in history...multiple TORs...heavy heavy damage across ALL of SNE. Congrats to all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Tony's posting here! NOW the threat is legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Chasing --- thought about starting a separate thread but I'll leave it here for now: 1) Where would people recommend as a staging city? Debating I-90 west vs. I-84 west into eastern NY... 21z SREF seems to concur with NAM in best chances southeast NY / western CT 2) Timing? Looks like window is between clearing subsidence / CIN after morning MCS (maybe by 1-2pm?) and line passing through later at night. Thanks all. Awesome thread, great posts, and love seeing Western/Central forum regulars here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Chasing --- thought about starting a separate thread but I'll leave it here for now: 1) Where would people recommend as a staging city? Debating I-90 west vs. I-84 west into eastern NY... 21z SREF seems to concur with NAM in best chances southeast NY / western CT 2) Timing? Looks like window is between clearing subsidence / CIN after morning MCS (maybe by 1-2pm?) and line passing through later at night. Thanks all. Awesome thread, great posts, and love seeing Western/Central state regulars here! If I chased I would setup near SWF for noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 LCL heights about 500m too at 0z. That is pretty jaw dropping. 800-500mb lapse rates also 7 C/KM at the time of that sounding! Unfortunately NO WAY I can call out of work...not doing camp and we are short on counselors. I get out at 4:30 though and since I think it will be later show here I should be good...but I have my iphone for updates/camera/video Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Tony's posting here! NOW the threat is legit Ehh I'm not as familiar with some of the mesoscale intricacies of SNE as I am in the middle of the country or the south. But boy, seeing those profiles anywhere really piques my interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Chasing --- thought about starting a separate thread but I'll leave it here for now: 1) Where would people recommend as a staging city? Debating I-90 west vs. I-84 west into eastern NY... 21z SREF seems to concur with NAM in best chances southeast NY / western CT 2) Timing? Looks like window is between clearing subsidence / CIN after morning MCS (maybe by 1-2pm?) and line passing through later at night. Thanks all. Awesome thread, great posts, and love seeing Western/Central forum regulars here! A Bunch of us from the Philly Region Sub-Forum are gonna chase this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 If I chased I would setup near SWF for noon. Thanks... yeah I was favoring I-84 west (vs. I-90) unless warm front sets up much farther north than progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Do the soundings have decent mid level lapse rates? SREFS looked blah in that dept. 6.5C would probably be fine given shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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